NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Nicolas Berman

Graduate Institute of International
and Development Studies
Avenue de la Paix 11A
1202 Geneva - Switzerland

E-Mail: nicolas.berman@graduateinstitute.ch

NBER Working Papers and Publications

August 2012Time to Ship During Financial Crises
with José De Sousa, Philippe Martin, Thierry Mayer: w18274
We show that the negative impact of financial crises on trade is magnified for destinations with longer time-to-ship. A simple model where exporters react to an increase in the probability of default of importers by increasing their export price and decreasing their export volumes to destinations in crisis is consistent with this empirical finding. For longer shipping time, those effects are indeed magnified as the probability of default increases as time passes. Some exporters also decide to stop exporting to the crisis destination, the more so the longer time-to-ship. Using aggregate data from 1950 to 2009, we find that this magnification effect is robust to alternative specifications, samples and inclusion of additional controls, including distance. The firm level predictions are also ...

Published:

July 2012Time to Ship during Financial Crises
with José de Sousa, Philippe Martin, Thierry Mayer
in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012, Francesco Giavazzi and Kenneth D. West, organizers
We show that the negative impact of financial crises on trade is magnified for destinations with longer time- to- ship. A simple model where exporters react to an increase in the probability of default of importers by increasing their export price and decreasing their export volumes to destinations in crisis is consistent with this empirical finding. For longer shipping time, those effects are indeed magnified as the probability of default increases as time passes. Some exporters also decide to stop exporting to the crisis destination, the more so the longer time-to-ship. Using aggregate data from 1950 to 2009, we find that this magnification effect is robust to alternative specifications, samples, and inclusion of additional controls, including distance. The firm level predictions are als...
 
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