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NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Papers on Monetary Economics

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2018
w24529 Carolin Pflueger
Emil Siriwardane
Adi Sunderam

A Measure of Risk Appetite for the Macroeconomy
w24501 Michael D. Bordo
John V. Duca

The Impact of the Dodd-Frank Act on Small Business
w24502 David N.F. Bell
David G. Blanchflower

The Lack of Wage Growth and the Falling NAIRU
w24521 Marcus Hagedorn
Jinfeng Luo
Iourii Manovskii
Kurt Mitman

Forward Guidance
w24509 Juan Ospina
Harald Uhlig

Mortgage-Backed Securities and the Financial Crisis of 2008: a Post Mortem
w24498 Roger Farmer
The Role of Financial Policy
w24483 Linda Schilling
Harald Uhlig

Some Simple Bitcoin Economics
w24485 Gita Gopinath
Jeremy C. Stein

Banking, Trade, and the making of a Dominant Currency
w24496 Marina Halac
Pierre Yared

Instrument-Based vs. Target-Based Rules
w24454 Claudia M. Buch
Matthieu Bussiere
Linda Goldberg
Robert Hills

The International Transmission of Monetary Policy
w24463 Roberto Chang
Foreign Exchange Intervention Redux
w24443 Viral V. Acharya
Arvind Krishnamurthy

Capital Flow Management with Multiple Instruments
w24434 Eric Anderson
Sergio Rebelo
Arlene Wong

Markups Across Space and Time
w24446 Adam M. Guren
Arvind Krishnamurthy
Timothy J. McQuade

Mortgage Design in an Equilibrium Model of the Housing Market
w24415 Zhiguo He
Arvind Krishnamurthy

Intermediary Asset Pricing and the Financial Crisis
w24382 Eric Zwick
The Costs of Corporate Tax Complexity
w24386 Andreas Fuster
Greg Kaplan
Basit Zafar

What Would You Do With $500? Spending Responses to Gains, Losses, News and Loans
w24400 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

Reach for Yield and Fickle Capital Flows
w24404 Loukas Karabarbounis
Brent Neiman

Accounting for Factorless Income
w24367 Sebastian Edwards
Keynes on the Sequencing of Economic Policy: Recovery and Reform in 1933
w24373 Alexandr Kopytov
Nikolai Roussanov
Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel

Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain? Recessions and Technological Transformation
w24377 Christopher D. Carroll
Edmund Crawley
Jiri Slacalek
Kiichi Tokuoka
Matthew N. White

Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics
w24362 Julian Kozlowski
Laura Veldkamp
Venky Venkateswaran

The Tail that Keeps the Riskless Rate Low
w24319 Shang-Jin Wei
Yinxi Xie

On the Divergence between CPI and PPI as Inflation Gauges: The Role of Supply Chains
w24322 Atif R. Mian
Amir Sufi

Finance and Business Cycles: The Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel
w24328 Philippe Andrade
Jordi Galí
Hervé Le Bihan
Julien Matheron

The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest
w24298 Gary B. Gorton
Toomas Laarits

Collateral Damage
w24275 Diego Aparicio
Alberto Cavallo

Targeted Price Controls on Supermarket Products
w24280 Adrien Auclert
Matthew Rognlie

Inequality and Aggregate Demand
w24287 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Jacob A. Robbins
Ella Getz Wold

Kaldor and Piketty's Facts: The Rise of Monopoly Power in the United States
w24244 Francesco D’Acunto
Daniel Hoang
Michael Weber

Unconventional Fiscal Policy
w24261 Roger Farmer
Pricing Assets in a Perpetual Youth Model
w24262 Marco Di Maggio
Amir Kermani
Kaveh Majlesi

Stock Market Returns and Consumption
w24221 Pablo Ottonello
Thomas Winberry

Financial Heterogeneity and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy
w24223 Paul Beaudry
Franck Portier

Real Keynesian Models and Sticky Prices
w24230 Zheng Michael Song
Wei Xiong

Risks in China's Financial System
w24234 Alberto Martin
Jaume Ventura

The Macroeconomics of Rational Bubbles: A User's Guide
w24205 Sebastian Di Tella
A Neoclassical Theory of Liquidity Traps
w24195 Michael D. Bordo
Robert N. McCauley

Triffin: dilemma or myth?
2017
w24154 Michael D. Bordo
An Historical Perspective on the Quest for Financial Stability and the Monetary Policy Regime
w24168 João Granja
Christian Leuz

The Death of a Regulator: Strict Supervision, Bank Lending and Business Activity
w24178 George-Marios Angeletos
Frictional Coordination
w24135 Frederic S. Mishkin
Making Discretion in Monetary Policy More Rule-Like
w24148 Robert E. Hall
Thomas J. Sargent

Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Milton Friedman's Presidential Address
w24138 Timo Boppart
Per Krusell
Kurt Mitman

Exploiting MIT Shocks in Heterogeneous-Agent Economies: The Impulse Response as a Numerical Derivative
w24149 John B. Taylor
Rules Versus Discretion: Assessing the Debate Over the Conduct of Monetary Policy
w24112 Òscar Jordà
Katharina Knoll
Dmitry Kuvshinov
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
w24122 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Walker Ray

The Effects of Quantitative Easing: Taking a Cue from Treasury Auctions
w24126 Mark Gertler
Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
Andrea Prestipino

A Macroeconomic Model with Financial Panics
w24108 Anusha Chari
Ryan Leary
Toan Phan

The Costs of (sub)Sovereign Default Risk: Evidence from Puerto Rico
w24077 Aaron B. Flaaen
Matthew D. Shapiro
Isaac Sorkin

Reconsidering the Consequences of Worker Displacements: Firm versus Worker Perspective
w24091 Michael Bailey
Eduardo Dávila
Theresa Kuchler
Johannes Stroebel

House Price Beliefs And Mortgage Leverage Choice
w24050 Gideon Bornstein
Guido Lorenzoni

Moral Hazard Misconceptions: the Case of the Greenspan Put
w24043 N. Gregory Mankiw
Ricardo Reis

Friedman's Presidential Address in the Evolution of Macroeconomic Thought
w24039 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Ragnar E. Juelsrud
Ella Getz Wold

Are Negative Nominal Interest Rates Expansionary?
w23993 Lars E.O. Svensson
What Rule for the Federal Reserve? Forecast Targeting
w24005 Sigríður Benediktsdóttir
Gauti B. Eggertsson
Eggert Þórarinsson

The Rise, the Fall, and the Resurrection of Iceland
w24008 John Ameriks
Joseph S. Briggs
Andrew Caplin
Minjoon Lee
Matthew D. Shapiro
Christopher Tonetti

Older Americans Would Work Longer If Jobs Were Flexible
w24016 Michael Bordo
Eric Monnet
Alain Naef

The Gold Pool (1961-1968) and the Fall of the Bretton Woods System. Lessons for Central Bank Cooperation.
w23984 Luigi Bocola
Guido Lorenzoni

Financial Crises and Lending of Last Resort in Open Economies
w23985 Arvind Krishnamurthy
Stefan Nagel
Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

ECB Policies Involving Government Bond Purchases: Impact and Channels
w23988 Emine Boz
Gita Gopinath
Mikkel Plagborg-Møller

Global Trade and the Dollar
w23996 Stefano DellaVigna
Matthew Gentzkow

Uniform Pricing in US Retail Chains
w23998 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Byoungchan Lee

A Note on Variance Decomposition with Local Projections
w23960 Matteo Cacciatore
Romain Duval
Giuseppe Fiori
Fabio Ghironi

Market Reforms at the Zero Lower Bound
w23961 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Vaishali Garga

Sticky Prices Versus Sticky Information: Does it Matter for Policy Paradoxes?
w23968 Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

Identification in Macroeconomics
w23977 Martín Uribe
The Neo-Fisher Effect in the United States and Japan
w23954 Jonathan Chapman
Mark Dean
Pietro Ortoleva
Erik Snowberg
Colin Camerer

Willingness to Pay and Willingness to Accept are Probably Less Correlated Than You Think
w23920 Jonathan A. Parker
Nicholas S. Souleles

Reported Preference vs. Revealed Preference: Evidence from the Propensity to Spend Tax Rebates
w23931 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

Why Some Times Are Different: Macroeconomic Policy and the Aftermath of Financial Crises
w23879 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Antonio Falato

The Loan Covenant Channel: How Bank Health Transmits to the Real Economy
w23884 Randall Wright
Philipp Kircher
Benoit Julîen
Veronica Guerrieri

Directed Search: A Guided Tour
w23841 Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
Andrea Ferrero
Alessandro Rebucci

International Credit Supply Shocks
w23847 Michael D. Bordo
Pierre L. Siklos

Central Banks: Evolution and Innovation in Historical Perspective
w23850 Arvind Krishnamurthy
Tyler Muir

How Credit Cycles across a Financial Crisis
w23861 James Cloyne
Kilian Huber
Ethan Ilzetzki
Henrik Kleven

The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach
w23836 Fabio Ghironi
Macro Needs Micro
w23837 Roger E.A. Farmer
Giovanni Nicolò

Keynesian Economics without the Phillips Curve
w23778 Erik Eyster
Kristof Madarasz
Pascal Michaillat

Pricing when Customers Care about Fairness but Misinfer Markups
w23784 Alejandro Justiniano
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Andrea Tambalotti

The Mortgage Rate Conundrum
w23786 Michael D. Bordo
The Second Era of Globalization is Not Yet Over: An Historical Perspective
w23795 Joseph E. Stiglitz
Where Modern Macroeconomics Went Wrong
w23796 David Berger
Ian Dew-Becker
Stefano Giglio

Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks
w23802 Atif Mian
Amir Sufi
Emil Verner

How do Credit Supply Shocks Affect the Real Economy? Evidence from the United States in the 1980s
w23755 Mark D. Flood
Dror Y. Kenett
Robin L. Lumsdaine
Jonathan K. Simon

The Complexity of Bank Holding Companies: A Topological Approach
w23745 Lars E.O. Svensson
Leaning Against the Wind: The Role of Different Assumptions About the Costs
w23746 Marek Jarociński
Bartosz Maćkowiak

Monetary-Fiscal Interactions and the Euro Area's Malaise
w23750 Ernesto Pasten
Raphael Schoenle
Michael Weber

Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations
w23754 Jeffrey A. Frankel
Ayako Saiki

Does It Matter If Statistical Agencies Frame the Month's CPI Reporton a 1-Month or 12-month Basis?
w23759 Wenxin Du
Joanne Im
Jesse Schreger

The U.S. Treasury Premium
w23732 Yves Achdou
Jiequn Han
Jean-Michel Lasry
Pierre-Louis Lions
Benjamin Moll

Income and Wealth Distribution in Macroeconomics: A Continuous-Time Approach
w23676 Jose Maria Barrero
Nicholas Bloom
Ian Wright

Short and Long Run Uncertainty
w23694 Greg Kaplan
Kurt Mitman
Giovanni L. Violante

The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence
w23706 Andreas Fuster
Stephanie H. Lo
Paul S. Willen

The Time-Varying Price of Financial Intermediation in the Mortgage Market
w23707 Mark Gertler
Rethinking the Power of Forward Guidance: Lessons from Japan
w23711 Michael D. Bordo
Andrew T. Levin

Central Bank Digital Currency and the Future of Monetary Policy
w23725 Jasmina Arifovic
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Learning to Live in a Liquidity Trap
w23651 Elena Gerko
Hélène Rey

Monetary Policy in the Capitals of Capital
w23654 Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti
Anil Kashyap

Which Banks Recover From Large Adverse Shocks?
w23658 François Gourio
Anil K. Kashyap
Jae Sim

The Tradeoffs in Leaning Against the Wind
w23663 Jeffrey A. Frankel
Systematic Managed Floating
w23665 Scott R. Baker
Stephanie Johnson
Lorenz Kueng

Shopping for Lower Sales Tax Rates
w23672 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Serena Ng

Level and Volatility Factors in Macroeconomic Data
w23605 Francesco Bianchi
Leonardo Melosi

The Dire Effects of the Lack of Monetary and Fiscal Coordination
w23612 Patrick Bolton
Haizhou Huang

The Capital Structure of Nations
w23614 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

A Risk-centric Model of Demand Recessions and Macroprudential Policy
w23570 Efraim Benmelech
Adam Guren
Brian T. Melzer

Making the House a Home: The Stimulative Effect of Home Purchases on Consumption and Investment
w23577 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Geographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Spending Multipliers: What Have We Learned?
w23580 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Mauricio Ulate

The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output
w23583 Germán Gutiérrez
Thomas Philippon

Declining Competition and Investment in the U.S.
w23565 Stefan Avdjiev
Leonardo Gambacorta
Linda S. Goldberg
Stefano Schiaffi

The Shifting Drivers of Global Liquidity
w23546 Nittai K. Bergman
Rajkamal Iyer
Richard T. Thakor

The Effect of Cash Injections: Evidence from the 1980s Farm Debt Crisis
w23511 Bruce Carlin
William Mann

Finance, farms, and the Fed's early years
w23521 Francesco Bianchi
Giovanni Nicolò

A Generalized Approach to Indeterminacy in Linear Rational Expectations Models
w23512 Efraim Benmelech
Nittai K. Bergman

Credit Market Freezes
w23494 SeHyoun Ahn
Greg Kaplan
Benjamin Moll
Thomas Winberry
Christian Wolf

When Inequality Matters for Macro and Macro Matters for Inequality
w23474 Anusha Chari
Karlye Dilts Stedman
Christian Lundblad

Taper Tantrums: QE, its Aftermath and Emerging Market Capital Flows
w23480 Michael D. Bauer
James D. Hamilton

Robust Bond Risk Premia
w23440 Maurice Obstfeld
Alan M. Taylor

International Monetary Relations: Taking Finance Seriously
w23448 Edward Herbst
Frank Schorfheide

Tempered Particle Filtering
w23449 Anthony A. DeFusco
Charles G. Nathanson
Eric Zwick

Speculative Dynamics of Prices and Volume
w23451 Adrien Auclert
Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel
w23411 Elif C. Arbatli
Steven J. Davis
Arata Ito
Naoko Miake
Ikuo Saito

Policy Uncertainty In Japan
w23424 Ali Ozdagli
Michael Weber

Monetary Policy through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market
w23429 James D. Hamilton
Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter
w23401 Oleg Itskhoki
Dmitry Mukhin

Exchange Rate Disconnect in General Equilibrium
w23377 Kaiji Chen
Jue Ren
Tao Zha

The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China
w23379 George-Marios Angeletos
Chen Lian

Dampening General Equilibrium: From Micro to Macro
w23385 Alberto Alesina
Omar Barbiero
Carlo Favero
Francesco Giavazzi
Matteo Paradisi

The Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Theory and Evidence
w23391 Christopher L. House
Ana-Maria Mocanu
Matthew D. Shapiro

Stimulus Effects of Investment Tax Incentives: Production versus Purchases
w23394 Kewei Hou
Chen Xue
Lu Zhang

Replicating Anomalies
w23345 Denis Gorea
Virgiliu Midrigan

Liquidity Constraints in the U.S. Housing Market
w23357 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Dmitri Koustas

Consumption Inequality and the Frequency of Purchases
w23324 Fatih Guvenen
Raymond J. Mataloni
Jr.
Dylan G. Rassier
Kim J. Ruhl

Offshore Profit Shifting and Domestic Productivity Measurement
w23311 Eric T. Swanson
Measuring the Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance and Asset Purchases on Financial Markets
w23294 Mel Win Khaw
Ziang Li
Michael Woodford

Risk Aversion as a Perceptual Bias
w23302 Adriano A. Rampini
S. Viswanathan

Financial Intermediary Capital
w23304 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Rupal Kamdar

The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve
w23266 Manuel Amador
Javier Bianchi
Luigi Bocola
Fabrizio Perri

Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound
w23270 Martin Beraja
Andreas Fuster
Erik Hurst
Joseph Vavra

Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy
w23281 Emmanuel Farhi
Iván Werning

Monetary Policy, Bounded Rationality, and Incomplete Markets
w23287 Òscar Jordà
Björn Richter
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis
w23288 Greg Buchak
Gregor Matvos
Tomasz Piskorski
Amit Seru

Fintech, Regulatory Arbitrage, and the Rise of Shadow Banks
w23220 Michael D. Bordo
Harold James

Partial Fiscalization: Some Lessons on Europe's Unfinished Business
w23225 Sydney C. Ludvigson
Sai Ma
Serena Ng

Shock Restricted Structural Vector-Autoregressions
w23228 Ulrike Malmendier
Stefan Nagel
Zhen Yan

The Making of Hawks and Doves: Inflation Experiences on the FOMC
w23235 Patrick J. Kehoe
Elena Pastorino

Financial Markets and Fiscal Unions
w23216 Efraim Benmelech
Carola Frydman
Dimitris Papanikolaou

Financial Frictions and Employment during the Great Depression
w23189 Michael D. Bordo
The Operation and Demise of the Bretton Woods System; 1958 to 1971
w23194 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

China's Gradualistic Economic Approach and Financial Markets
w23172 Joshua K. Hausman
Paul W. Rhode
Johannes F. Wieland

Recovery from the Great Depression: The Farm Channel in Spring 1933
w23186 Ulrich K. Müller
Mark W. Watson

Long-Run Covariability
w23163 Fatih Guvenen
Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
Jae Song
Motohiro Yogo

Worker Betas: Five Facts about Systematic Earnings Risk
w23142 André Kurmann
Eric Sims

Revisions in Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks
w23143 David Berger
Joseph Vavra

Shocks vs. Responsiveness: What Drives Time-Varying Dispersion?
w23149 Yusuf Soner Baskaya
Julian di Giovanni
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Mehmet Fatih Ulu

International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles
w23147 Christopher L. House
Christian Proebsting
Linda L. Tesar

Austerity in the Aftermath of the Great Recession
w23154 Andrew Fieldhouse
Karel Mertens
Morten O. Ravn

The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar US Housing Credit Policy
w23165 Andrew J. Fieldhouse
Karel Mertens

A Narrative Analysis of Mortgage Asset Purchases by Federal Agencies
w23156 Roger E.A. Farmer
The End of Alchemy: A Review Essay
w23157 Michael T. Belongia
Peter N. Ireland

Circumventing the Zero Lower Bound with Monetary Policy Rules Based on Money
w23167 Kyriakos T. Chousakos
Gary B. Gorton

Bank Health Post-Crisis
w23134 Ethan Ilzetzki
Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?
w23135 Ethan Ilzetzki
Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

The Country Chronologies to Exchange Rate Arrangements into the 21st Century: Will the Anchor Currency Hold?
w23093 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Neil R. Mehrotra
Jacob A. Robbins

A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation
w23066 Francesco D’Acunto
Ryan Liu
Carolin Pflueger
Michael Weber

Flexible Prices and Leverage
w23074 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments
w23083 Thomas Philippon
Pierre Pessarossi
Boubacar Camara

Backtesting European Stress Tests
w23032 Joseph E. Stiglitz
Macro-economic Management in an Electronic Credit/Financial System
w23055 Douglas W. Diamond
Yunzhi Hu
Raghuram G. Rajan

Pledgeability, Industry Liquidity, and Financing Cycles
w23030 Charles G. Nathanson
Eric Zwick

Arrested Development: Theory and Evidence of Supply-Side Speculation in the Housing Market

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