NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Papers in Monetary Economics

NBER Papers in Monetary Economics

browse older papers in this program

2009
w15534 Michael D. Bordo
Christopher M. Meissner
David Stuckler

Foreign Currency Debt, Financial Crises and Economic Growth: A Long Run View

w15512 Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870–2008

w15505 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe
Martin Uribe

On Quality Bias and Inflation Targets

w15494 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Foreign Demand for Domestic Currency and the Optimal Rate of Inflation

w15487 Dimitri Vayanos
Jean-Luc Vila

A Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

w15482 Zhiguo He
Wei Xiong

Dynamic Debt Runs

w15481 Wei Xiong
Jialin Yu

The Chinese Warrants Bubble

w15464 Valerie A. Ramey
Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's All in the Timing

w15462 Todd M. Sinai
Nicholas S. Souleles

Can Owning a Home Hedge the Risk of Moving?

w15424 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Craig Hakkio

Inflation targeting and private sector forecasts

w15421 Claudia R. Sahm
Matthew D. Shapiro
Joel B. Slemrod

Household Response to the 2008 Tax Rebate: Survey Evidence and Aggregate Implications

w15414 Ricardo Lagos
Guillaume Rocheteau
Pierre-Olivier Weill

Crises and Liquidity in Over-the-Counter Markets

w15399 François Gourio
Disasters Risk and Business Cycles

w15388 David G. Blanchflower
Conall MacCoille

The formation of inflation expectations: an empirical analysis for the UK

w15385 Lars E.O. Svensson
Evaluating Monetary Policy

w15379 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Marion Kohler
Christian Upper

Financial Crises and Economic Activity

w15375 José-Víctor Ríos-Rull
Frank Schorfheide
Cristina Fuentes-Albero
Maxym Kryshko
Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis

Methods versus Substance: Measuring the Effects of Technology Shocks on Hours

w15369 Robert J. Barro
Charles J. Redlick

Macroeconomic Effects from Government Purchases and Taxes

w15367 David O. Lucca
Francesco Trebbi

Measuring Central Bank Communication: An Automated Approach with Application to FOMC Statements

w15359 Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

Lost in Transit: Product Replacement Bias and Pricing to Market

w15312 Robert B. Barsky
Eric R. Sims

News Shocks

w15306 Junhee Lee
Joonhyuk Song

Nature of Oil Price Shocks and Monetary Policy

w15297 Lasse Heje Pedersen
When Everyone Runs for the Exit

w15289 Vasco Cúrdia
Michael Woodford

Credit Spreads and Monetary Policy

w15283 Atif R. Mian
Amir Sufi

House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the U.S. Household Leverage Crisis

w15273 Gary B. Gorton
Andrew Metrick

Haircuts

w15270 Andrew Ang
Jean Boivin
Sen Dong
Rudy Loo-Kung

Monetary Policy Shifts and the Term Structure

w15255 Emi Nakamura
Dawit Zerom

Accounting for Incomplete Pass-Through

w15247 Robert J. Barro
Tao Jin

On the Size Distribution of Macroeconomic Disasters

w15243 Fatih Guvenen
A Parsimonious Macroeconomic Model for Asset Pricing

w15234 Bennett T. McCallum
Causality, Structure, and the Uniqueness of Rational Expectations Equilibria

w15223 Gary B. Gorton
Andrew Metrick

Securitized Banking and the Run on Repo

w15208 David H. Romer
A New Data Set on Monetary Policy: The Economic Forecasts of Individual Members of the FOMC

w15204 Peter Blair Henry
Diego Sasson

Capital Market Integration and Wages

w15197 Douglas W. Diamond
Raghuram G. Rajan

Illiquidity and Interest Rate Policy

w15187 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Serena Ng

Estimation of DSGE Models When the Data are Persistent

w15173 Laurence M. Ball
Policy Responses to Exchange-Rate Movements

w15170 John Geanakoplos
Stephen P. Zeldes

Market Valuation of Accrued Social Security Benefits

w15165 John B. Donaldson
Natalia Gershun
Marc P. Giannoni

Some Unpleasant General Equilibrium Implications of Executive Incentive Compensation Contracts

w15158 Nuno Cassola
Ali Hortacsu
Jakub Kastl

The 2007 Subprime Market Crisis Through the Lens of European Central Bank Auctions for Short-Term Funds

w15138 Emmanuel Farhi
Jean Tirole

Collective Moral Hazard, Maturity Mismatch and Systemic Bailouts

w15123 Espen Henriksen
Finn E. Kydland
Roman Sustek

The High Cross-Country Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates

w15118 Willem H. Buiter
Negative Nominal Interest Rates: Three ways to overcome the zero lower bound

w15117 Michael W. L. Elsby
Matthew D. Shapiro

Stepping Off the Wage Escalator: The Effects of Wage Growth on Equilibrium Employment

w15113 James Feyrer
Jay C. Shambaugh

Global Savings and Global Investment: The Transmission of Identified Fiscal Shocks

w15093 Shang-Jin Wei
Xiaobo Zhang

The Competitive Saving Motive: Evidence from Rising Sex Ratios and Savings Rates in China

w15083 Raghuram G. Rajan
Rodney Ramcharan

Land and Credit: A Study of the Political Economy of Banking in the United States in the Early 20th Century

w15072 Harald Uhlig
A Model of a Systemic Bank Run

w15071 N. Gregory Mankiw
Matthew Weinzierl
Danny Yagan

Optimal Taxation in Theory and Practice

w15052 Robert B. Barsky
The Japanese Bubble: A 'Heterogeneous' Approach

w15049 Robert B. Barsky
Eric R. Sims

Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence

w15045 Efraim Benmelech
Jennifer Dlugosz

The Credit Rating Crisis

w15040 Arvind Krishnamurthy
Amplification Mechanisms in Liquidity Crises

w15029 Diego A. Comin
Mark Gertler
Ana Maria Santacreu

Technology Innovation and Diffusion as Sources of Output and Asset Price Fluctuations

w15020 Yuko Hashimoto
Takatoshi Ito

Effects of Japanese Macroeconomic Announcements on the Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate: High-Resolution Picture

w15015 Olivier J. Blanchard
Jean-Paul L'Huillier
Guido Lorenzoni

News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration

w15014 John Y. Campbell
Robert J. Shiller
Luis M. Viceira

Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets

w15010 Andrew B. Abel
Janice C. Eberly
Stavros Panageas

Optimal Inattention to the Stock Market with Information Costs and Transactions Costs

w15003 George-Marios Angeletos
Jennifer La'O

Incomplete Information, Higher-Order Beliefs and Price Inertia

w15002 James D. Hamilton
Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08

w14996 Harald Uhlig
Monetary policy in Europe vs the US: what explains the difference?

w14993 Peter L. Rousseau
Monetary Policy and the Dollar

w14982 George-Marios Angeletos
Jennifer La'O

Noisy Business Cycles

w14976 N. Gregory Mankiw
Matthew Weinzierl

The Optimal Taxation of Height: A Case Study of Utilitarian Income Redistribution

w14938 Gita Gopinath
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Chang-Tai Hsieh
Nicholas Li

Estimating the Border Effect: Some New Evidence

w14933 Julio J. Rotemberg
Altruistic Dynamic Pricing with Customer Regret

w14929 Thomas Philippon
Philipp Schnabl

Efficient Recapitalization

w14927 Eyal Dvir
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Three Epochs of Oil

w14925 Douglas W. Diamond
Raghuram G. Rajan

Fear of Fire Sales and the Credit Freeze

w14904 Barry Eichengreen
Ashoka Mody
Milan Nedeljkovic
Lucio Sarno

How the Subprime Crisis Went Global: Evidence from Bank Credit Default Swap Spreads

w14902 Stefan Laséen
Lars E.O. Svensson

Anticipated Alternative Instrument-Rate Paths in Policy Simulations

w14895 Riccardo DiCecio
Edward Nelson

The Great Inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom: Reconciling Policy Decisions and Data Outcomes

w14894 Riccardo DiCecio
Edward Nelson

Euro Membership as a U.K. Monetary Policy Option: Results from a Structural Model

w14882 Hyungsik Roger Moon
Frank Schorfheide

Bayesian and Frequentist Inference in Partially Identified Models

w14874 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Enrique G. Mendoza
Linda L. Tesar

The Finnish Great Depression: From Russia with Love

w14872 Frank Schorfheide
Keith Sill
Maxym Kryshko

DSGE Model-Based Forecasting of Non-modelled Variables

w14870 S. Boragan Aruoba
Frank Schorfheide

Sticky Prices Versus Monetary Frictions: An Estimation of Policy Trade-offs

w14863 Simon Gilchrist
Vladimir Yankov
Egon Zakrajsek

Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets

w14862 Marvin Goodfriend
Robert G. King

The Great Inflation Drift

w14849 John B. Taylor
Volker Wieland

Surprising Comparative Properties of Monetary Models: Results from a New Data Base

w14846 Roger E.A. Farmer
Confidence, Crashes and Animal Spirits

w14829 Charles Engel
Currency Misalignments and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Reexamination

w14824 Pierpaolo Benigno
New-Keynesian Economics: An AS-AD View

w14818 Laurence M. Ball
Hysteresis in Unemployment: Old and New Evidence

w14815 Ravi Bansal
Ivan Shaliastovich

Confidence Risk and Asset Prices

w14814 Ravi Bansal
Ivan Shaliastovich

Learning and Asset-Price Jumps

w14787 Mark Bils
Peter J. Klenow
Benjamin A. Malin

Reset Price Inflation and the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks

w14770 Jess Benhabib
A Note on Regime Switching, Monetary Policy, and Multiple Equilibria

w14761 Vasiliki Skreta
Laura Veldkamp

Ratings Shopping and Asset Complexity: A Theory of Ratings Inflation

w14754 Miles S. Kimball
Claudia R. Sahm
Matthew D. Shapiro

Risk Preferences in the PSID: Individual Imputations and Family Covariation

w14753 Matthew D. Shapiro
Joel B. Slemrod

Did the 2008 Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending?

w14739 Douglas W. Diamond
Raghuram Rajan

The Credit Crisis: Conjectures about Causes and Remedies

w14735 Reint Gropp
Anil Kashyap

A New Metric for Banking Integration in Europe

w14734 Pierpaolo Benigno
Salvatore Nisticò

International Portfolio Allocation under Model Uncertainty

w14732 Ricardo Reis
A Sticky-Information General-Equilibrium Model for Policy Analysis

w14722 Antonio Fatas
Ilian Mihov

The Euro and Fiscal Policy

w14710 Roger E.A. Farmer
Tao Zha
Daniel F. Waggoner

Understanding Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models

w14701 John Y. Campbell
Adi Sunderam
Luis M. Viceira

Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

w14678 Frederic S. Mishkin
Is Monetary Policy Effective During Financial Crises?

w14669 Monika Piazzesi
Martin Schneider

Momentum traders in the housing market: survey evidence and a search model

w14665 Jonathan A. Parker
Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

Who Bears Aggregate Fluctuations and How?

w14663 Michael G. Palumbo
Jonathan A. Parker

The Integrated Financial and Real System of National Accounts for the United States: Does It Presage the Financial Crisis?

w14659 Sumit Agarwal
Paige M. Skiba
Jeremy Tobacman

Payday Loans and Credit Cards: New Liquidity and Credit Scoring Puzzles?

w14657 Michael D. Bordo
Ronald MacDonald
Michael J. Oliver

Sterling in crisis: 1964-1967

w14651 Oleksiy Kryvtsov
Virgiliu Midrigan

Inventories, Markups, and Real Rigidities in Menu Cost Models

w14649 Gary B. Gorton
Information, Liquidity, and the (Ongoing) Panic of 2007

w14631 John B. Taylor
The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong


2008
w14621 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation

w14620 Michael Woodford
Information-Constrained State-Dependent Pricing

w14617 Michael Elsby
Bart Hobijn
Aysegul Sahin

Unemployment Dynamics in the OECD

w14616 J. Christina Wang
Susanto Basu
John G. Fernald

A General-Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Approach to the Measurement of Nominal and Real Bank Output

w14612 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-08

w14605 Andrew Caplin
John Leahy

Trading Frictions and House Price Dynamics

w14604 Peter Blair Henry
Conrad Miller

Institutions vs. Policies: A Tale of Two Islands

w14601 Kirstin Hubrich
Kenneth D. West

Forecast Evaluation of Small Nested Model Sets

w14580 Loretti I. Dobrescu
Laurence J. Kotlikoff
Alberto F. Motta

Why Aren't Developed Countries Saving?

w14586 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us About Informational Rigidities?

w14569 Michael D. Bordo
An Historical Perspective on the Crisis of 2007-2008

w14562 Joshua Aizenman
Reuven Glick

Sovereign Wealth Funds: Stylized Facts about their Determinants and Governance

w14561 Joshua Aizenman
Michael Hutchison
Ilan Noy

Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets

w14534 Bennett T. McCallum
Inflation Determination with Taylor Rules: Is New Keynesian Analysis Critically Flawed?

w14532 Michael D. Bordo
Barry Eichengreen

Bretton Woods and the Great Inflation

w14527 Hans Fehr
Sabine Jokisch
Laurence J. Kotlikoff

Dynamic Globalization and Its Potentially Alarming Prospects for Low-Wage Workers

w14514 Casey B. Mulligan
A Depressing Scenario: Mortgage Debt Becomes Unemployment Insurance

w14510 Malin Adolfson
Stefan Laséen
Jesper Lindé
Lars E.O. Svensson

Monetary Policy Trade-Offs in an Estimated Open-Economy DSGE Model

w14509 Diego A. Comin
An Exploration of the Japanese Slowdown during the 1990s

w14489 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Kermit L. Schoenholtz

How Central Bankers See It: The First Decade of ECB Policy and Beyond

w14473 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Stefan Nagel
Lasse H. Pedersen

Carry Trades and Currency Crashes

w14452 Chris Edmond
Laura Veldkamp

Income Dispersion and Counter-Cyclical Markups

w14446 Casey Mulligan
Luke Threinen

Market Responses to the Panic of 2008

w14436 Liran Einav
Ephraim Leibtag
Aviv Nevo

Not-so-Classical Measurement Errors: A Validation Study of Homescan

w14433 Rachel Griffith
Ephraim Leibtag
Andrew Leicester
Aviv Nevo

Timing and Quantity of Consumer Purchases and the Consumer Price Index

w14422 Asaf Bernstein
Eric Hughson
Marc D. Weidenmier

Can a Lender of Last Resort Stabilize Financial Markets? Lessons from the Founding of the Fed

w14402 Christopher L. House
Fixed Costs and Long-Lived Investments

w14401 Takeo Hoshi
Anil K Kashyap

Will the U.S. Bank Recapitalization Succeed? Eight Lessons from Japan

w14398 Gary B. Gorton
The Subprime Panic

w14391 Stefano Eusepi
Bruce Preston

Stabilizing Expectations under Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination

w14389 Andrew T. Foerster
Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte
Mark W. Watson

Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production

w14378 William A. Brock
Charles F. Manski

Competitive Lending with Partial Knowledge of Loan Repayment

w14362 Marc D. Weidenmier
Joseph H. Davis
Roger Aliaga-Diaz

Is Sugar Sweeter at the Pump? The Macroeconomic Impact of Brazil's Alternative Energy Program

w14358 Gary B. Gorton
The Panic of 2007

w14357 William A. Brock
Steven N. Durlauf
Giacomo Rondina

Design Limits and Dynamic Policy Analysis

w14323 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Strategic Interaction Among Heterogeneous Price-Setters In An Estimated DSGE Model

w14322 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts

w14282 Betsey Stevenson
Justin Wolfers

Economic Growth and Subjective Well-Being: Reassessing the Easterlin Paradox

w14280 Rajkamal Iyer
Manju Puri

Understanding Bank Runs: The Importance of Depositor-Bank Relationships and Networks

w14255 Manuel Amador
Pierre-Olivier Weill

Learning from Prices: Public Communication and Welfare

w14244 Matthew Canzoneri
Robert E. Cumby
Behzad Diba
David Lopez-Salido

Monetary Aggregates and Liquidity in a Neo-Wicksellian Framework

w14223 James D. Hamilton
Daily Monetary Policy Shocks and the Delayed Response of New Home Sales

w14222 Julio J. Rotemberg
Liquidity Needs in Economies with Interconnected Financial Obligations

w14219 Robert E. Hall
Susan E. Woodward

The Burden of the Nondiversifiable Risk of Entrepreneurship

w14208 Miles S. Kimball
Matthew D. Shapiro

Labor Supply: Are the Income and Substitution Effects Both Large or Both Small?

w14204 Willem H. Buiter
Housing Wealth Isn't Wealth

w14200 Gita Gopinath
Oleg Itskhoki

Frequency of Price Adjustment and Pass-through

w14190 Jean Boivin
Marc P. Giannoni
Benoît Mojon

How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission?

w14184 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Endogenous information, menu costs and inflation persistence

w14181 Stefano Eusepi
Bruce Preston

Expectations, Learning and Business Cycle Fluctuations

w14169 Jon Faust
Jonathan H. Wright

Efficient Prediction of Excess Returns

w14164 Bennett T. McCallum
Determinacy, Learnability, and Plausibility in Monetary Policy Analysis: Additional Results

w14163 Bennett T. McCallum
Reconsideration of the P-Bar Model of Gradual Price Adjustment

w14160 Yuko Hashimoto
Takatoshi Ito
Takaaki Ohnishi
Misako Takayasu
Hideki Takayasu
Tsutomu Watanabe

Random Walk or A Run: Market Microstructure Analysis of the Foreign Exchange Rate Movements based on Conditional Probability

w14151 James D. Hamilton
Macroeconomics and ARCH

w14134 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Crisis and Responses: the Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008

w14071 Kenneth S. Rogoff
Vania Stavrakeva

The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting

w14101 Nicola Cetorelli
Linda S. Goldberg

Banking Globalization, Monetary Transmission, and the Lending Channel

w14098 Peter N. Ireland
On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand

w14092 Malin Adolfson
Stefan Laseen
Jesper Linde
Lars E.O. Svensson

Optimal Monetary Policy in an Operational Medium-Sized DSGE Model

w14054 A. Craig Burnside
Martin S. Eichenbaum
Isaac Kleshchelski
Sergio Rebelo

Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?

w14033 Daron Acemoglu
Simon Johnson
Pablo Querubin
James A. Robinson

When Does Policy Reform Work? The Case of Central Bank Independence

w14019 Michael D. Bordo
Michael J. Dueker
David C. Wheelock

Inflation, Monetary Policy and Stock Market Conditions

w14001 Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

Monetary Non-Neutrality in a Multi-Sector Menu Cost Model

w13986 Pierpaolo Benigno
Luca Antonio Ricci

The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-Off at Low Inflation

w13985 Valerie A. Ramey
Time Spent in Home Production in the 20th Century: New Estimates from Old Data

w13979 John Geanakoplos
Stephen P. Zeldes

Reforming Social Security with Progressive Personal Accounts

w13970 Frederic S. Mishkin
Does Stabilizing Inflation Contribute To Stabilizing Economic Activity?

w13889 Frederic S. Mishkin
Exchange Rate Pass-Through And Monetary Policy

w13940 Robert J. Barro
José F. Ursúa

Macroeconomic Crises since 1870

w13965 Emi Nakamura
Pass-Through in Retail and Wholesale

w13948 Frederic S. Mishkin
Globalization, Macroeconomic Performance, and Monetary Policy

w13943 John B. Taylor
John C. Williams

A Black Swan in the Money Market

w13932 Alan S. Blinder
Michael Ehrmann
Marcel Fratzscher
Jakob De Haan
David-Jan Jansen

Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence

w13924 Aleksander Berentsen
Guido Menzio
Randall Wright

Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run

w13918 Niall Ferguson
Moritz Schularick

The "Thin Film Of Gold": Monetary Rules and Policy Credibility In Developing Countries

w13910 Jón Steinsson
The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models

w13906 Andrea Ferrero
Mark Gertler
Lars E.O. Svensson

Current Account Dynamics and Monetary Policy

w13901 Yu-Chin Chen
Kenneth Rogoff
Barbara Rossi

Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?

w13896 Hanno Lustig
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Adrien Verdelhan

The Wealth-Consumption Ratio

w13895 Edward J. Kane
Regulation and Supervision: An Ethical Perspective

w13892 Lars E.O. Svensson
Noah Williams

Optimal Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in DSGE Models: A Markov Jump-Linear-Quadratic Approach

w13876 Christopher D. Carroll
Jiri Slacalek
Martin Sommer

International Evidence on Sticky Consumption Growth

w13859 Orley Ashenfelter
Daniel Hosken

The Effect of Mergers on Consumer Prices: Evidence from Five Selected Case Studies

w13829 Martin Eichenbaum
Nir Jaimovich
Sergio Rebelo

Reference Prices and Nominal Rigidities

w13820 Linda S. Goldberg
Cédric Tille

Macroeconomic Interdependence and the International Role of the Dollar

w13815 Michael D. Bordo
Harold James

A Long Term Perspective on the Euro

w13777 Michael W. L. Elsby
Ryan Michaels

Marginal Jobs, Heterogeneous Firms, & Unemployment Flows

w13761 Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison

w13755 Julio J. Rotemberg
Minimally Altruistic Wages and Unemployment in a Matching Model

w13751 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

The FOMC versus the Staff: Where Can Monetary Policymakers Add Value?

w13749 Timothy Cogley
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Thomas J. Sargent

Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S.

w13741 Marco Del Negro
Frank Schorfheide

Forming Priors for DSGE Models (and How it Affects the Assessment of Nominal Rigidities)

w13736 Jean Boivin
Marc Giannoni

Global Forces and Monetary Policy Effectiveness


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