NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Papers in Monetary Economics


2014
w20339 Jens Hilscher
Alon Raviv
Ricardo Reis

Inflating Away the Public Debt? An Empirical Assessment

w20338 Martin Ravallion
An Exploration of the International Comparison Program’s New Global Economic Landscape

w20335 Alan Moreira
Alexi Savov

The Macroeconomics of Shadow Banking

w20314 Seunghoon Na
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martin Uribe
Vivian Z. Yue

A Model of the Twin Ds: Optimal Default and Devaluation

w20303 Frank Schorfheide
Dongho Song
Amir Yaron

Identifying Long-Run Risks: A Bayesian Mixed-Frequency Approach

w20288 Samuel G. Hanson
Andrei Shleifer
Jeremy C. Stein
Robert W. Vishny

Banks as Patient Fixed-Income Investors

w20277 Mark Aguiar
Manuel Amador
Emmanuel Farhi
Gita Gopinath

Coordination and Crisis in Monetary Unions

w20265 Stefan Nagel
The Liquidity Premium of Near-Money Assets

w20255 Tri Vi Dang
Gary Gorton
Bengt Holmström
Guillermo Ordonez

Banks as Secret Keepers

w20238 Francesco Bianchi
Leonardo Melosi

Escaping the Great Recession

w20237 Christoph E. Boehm
Christopher L. House

Optimal Taylor Rules in New Keynesian Models

w20230 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Financial Institutions

w20225 Alberto Cavallo
Brent Neiman
Roberto Rigobon

The Price Impact of Joining a Currency Union: Evidence from Latvia

w20224 Mark Gertler
Peter Karadi

Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs and Economic Activity

w20207 Oliver Hart
Luigi Zingales

Banks Are Where The Liquidity Is

w20194 Francesco Bianchi
Cosmin Ilut

Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs

w20193 Tarek A. Hassan
Thomas M. Mertens

Information Aggregation in a DSGE Model

w20185 Laurence M. Ball
Long-Term Damage from the Great Recession in OECD Countries

w20165 Anil K Kashyap
Dimitrios P. Tsomocos
Alexandros P. Vardoulakis

How does macroprudential regulation change bank credit supply?

w20161 Kinda Hachem
Jing Cynthia Wu

Inflation Announcements and Social Dynamics

w20155 Fernando Alvarez
Hervé Le Bihan
Francesco Lippi

Small and Large Price Changes and the Propagation of Monetary Shocks

w20154 Stefano Giglio
Matteo Maggiori
Johannes Stroebel

No-Bubble Condition: Model-free Tests in Housing Markets

w20152 Atif Mian
Amir Sufi

House Price Gains and U.S. Household Spending from 2002 to 2006

w20141 Itamar Drechsler
Alexi Savov
Philipp Schnabl

A Model of Monetary Policy and Risk Premia

w20134 Michael T. Belongia
Peter N. Ireland

Interest Rates and Money in the Measurement of Monetary Policy

w20133 Stefano Giglio
Matteo Maggiori
Johannes Stroebel

Very Long-Run Discount Rates

w20128 Benjamin M. Friedman
Has the Financial Crisis Permanently Changed the Practice of Monetary Policy? Has It Changed the Theory of Monetary Policy?

w20126 Kenneth S. Rogoff
Costs and Benefits to Phasing Out Paper Currency

w20122 Christian Broda
Jonathan A. Parker

The Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008 and the Aggregate Demand for Consumption

w20115 Drew D. Creal
Jing Cynthia Wu

Estimation of Affine Term Structure Models with Spanned or Unspanned Stochastic Volatility

w20117 Jing Cynthia Wu
Fan Dora Xia

Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound

w20099 Paul Bergin
Ling Feng
Ching-Yi Lin

Financial Frictions and Firm Dynamics

w20094 Simon Gilchrist
David López-Salido
Egon Zakrajšek

Monetary Policy and Real Borrowing Costs at the Zero Lower Bound

w20087 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

Transfer Payments and the Macroeconomy: The Effects of Social Security Benefit Changes, 1952-1991

w20083 Pierre-Cyrille Hautcoeur
Angelo Riva
Eugene N. White

Floating a "Lifeboat": The Banque de France and the Crisis of 1889

w20081 Francesco Bianchi
Cosmin L. Ilut
Martin Schneider

Uncertainty Shocks, Asset Supply and Pricing over the Business Cycle

w20073 Greg Kaplan
Giovanni L. Violante
Justin Weidner

The Wealthy Hand-to-Mouth

w20070 John Y. Campbell
Carolin Pflueger
Luis M. Viceira

Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

w20055 Marco Del Negro
Marc P. Giannoni
Frank Schorfheide

Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models

w20041 Simon Gilchrist
Benoît Mojon

Credit Risk in the Euro Area

w20040 Lawrence J. Christiano
Martin S. Eichenbaum
Mathias Trabandt

Understanding the Great Recession

w20027 Gary B. Gorton
Andrew Metrick
Lei Xie

The Flight from Maturity

w20010 Dolan Antenucci
Michael Cafarella
Margaret Levenstein
Christopher Ré
Matthew D. Shapiro

Using Social Media to Measure Labor Market Flows

w20003 Ron Alquist
Olivier Coibion

Commodity-Price Comovement and Global Economic Activity

w19981 Jordi Gali
Luca Gambetti

The Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Bubbles: Some Evidence

w19970 Anton Korinek
Alp Simsek

Liquidity Trap and Excessive Leverage

w19938 Fumio Hayashi
Junko Koeda

Exiting from QE

w19927 Ricardo J. Caballero
Emmanuel Farhi

The Safety Trap

w19903 Farley Grubb
A New Approach to Solving the Colonial Monetary Puzzle: Evidence from New Jersey, 1709-1775

w19900 Francois Gourio
Leena Rudanko

Can Intangible Capital Explain Cyclical Movements in the Labor Wedge?

w19893 Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson
Miao Liu

Are Chinese Growth and Inflation Too Smooth? Evidence from Engel Curves

w19892 James D. Hamilton
Jing Cynthia Wu

Effects of Index-Fund Investing on Commodity Futures Prices

w19887 Mervyn King
David Low

Measuring the ''World'' Real Interest Rate

w19886 Saroj Bhattarai
Gauti Eggertsson
Raphael Schoenle

Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing? Redux

w19885 Zhiguo He
Arvind Krishnamurthy

A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Systemic Risk

w19877 Greg Kaplan
Guido Menzio

The Morphology of Price Dispersion

w19871 Robert E. Hall
High Discounts and High Unemployment

w19864 Fatih Guvenen
Greg Kaplan
Jae Song

How Risky Are Recessions for Top Earners?

w19854 Xavier Gabaix
Matteo Maggiori

International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics

w19850 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Marianna Kudlyak
John Mondragon

Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data

w19814 Dick van Dijk
Robin L. Lumsdaine
Michel van der Wel

Market Set-Up in Advance of Federal Reserve Policy Decisions

w19792 Xu Cheng
Zhipeng Liao
Frank Schorfheide

Shrinkage Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models with Structural Instabilities

w19790 Joseph S. Vavra
Time-Varying Phillips Curves

w19777 Pascal Michaillat
Emmanuel Saez

An Economical Business-Cycle Model


2013
w19773 Viral V. Acharya
Bruce Tuckman

Unintended Consequences of LOLR Facilities: The Case of Illiquid Leverage

w19749 Eric Sims
Jonathan Wolff

The Output and Welfare Effects of Government Spending Shocks over the Business Cycle

w19747 David Yermack
Is Bitcoin a Real Currency? An economic appraisal

w19728 Jennie Bai
Thomas Philippon
Alexi Savov

Have Financial Markets Become More Informative?

w19723 Kenneth N. Kuttner
Ilhyock Shim

Can Non-Interest Rate Policies Stabilize Housing Markets? Evidence from a Panel of 57 Economies

w19714 Nicholas Bloom
Fluctuations in Uncertainty

w19712 Frank Schorfheide
Dongho Song

Real-Time Forecasting with a Mixed-Frequency VAR

w19711 Aloísio Araújo
Susan Schommer
Michael Woodford

Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy with Endogenous Collateral Constraints

w19704 Javier Bianchi
Enrique G. Mendoza

Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy

w19693 S. Borağan Aruoba
Luigi Bocola
Frank Schorfheide

Assessing DSGE Model Nonlinearities

w19655 Carmen M. Reinhart
Asia Chartbook: Crises, Credit and Debt, 1835-2013

w19652 Carmen M. Reinhart
Takeshi Tashiro

Crowding Out Redefined: The Role of Reserve Accumulation

w19651 David Berger
Joseph S. Vavra

Volatility and Pass-through

w19642 Ing-Haw Cheng
Wei Xiong

The Financialization of Commodity Markets

w19638 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Jae Song
Dmitriy Stolyarov

Macroeconomic Determinants of Retirement Timing

w19635 Alejandro Justiniano
Giorgio Primiceri
Andrea Tambalotti

The Effects of the Saving and Banking Glut on the U.S. Economy

w19600 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Dmitri Koustas

Amerisclerosis? The Puzzle of Rising U.S. Unemployment Persistence

w19598 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Is The Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation

w19585 Michael D. Bordo
John Landon-Lane

Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Cause Asset Price Booms; Some Historical and Empirical Evidence

w19584 Michael D. Bordo
John Landon-Lane

What Explains House Price Booms?: History and Empirical Evidence.

w19565 Frank Schorfheide
Kenneth I. Wolpin

To Hold Out or Not to Hold Out

w19561 Ángel Estrada
Jordi Galí
David López-Salido

Patterns of Convergence and Divergence in the Euro Area

w19540 Gary Gorton
The Development of Opacity in U.S. Banking

w19537 Matthias Doepke
Martin Schneider

Money as a Unit of Account

w19523 Linda S. Goldberg
Christian Grisse

Time Variation in Asset Price Responses to Macro Announcements

w19516 Mark Aguiar
Manuel Amador
Emmanuel Farhi
Gita Gopinath

Crisis and Commitment: Inflation Credibility and the Vulnerability to Sovereign Debt Crises

w19504 Jessie Handbury
Tsutomu Watanabe
David E. Weinstein

How Much Do Official Price Indexes Tell Us about Inflation?

w19497 Linda S. Goldberg
Banking Globalization, Transmission, and Monetary Policy Autonomy

w19491 Alexander M. Gelber
Damon Jones
Daniel W. Sacks

Earnings Adjustment Frictions: Evidence from the Social Security Earnings Test

w19482 Jeffrey Hoopes
Daniel Reck
Joel Slemrod

Taxpayer Search for Information: Implications for Rational Attention

w19478 Michael W. Elsby
Donggyun Shin
Gary Solon

Wage Adjustment in the Great Recession

w19477 Pablo D'Erasmo
Enrique G. Mendoza

Distributional Incentives in an Equilibrium Model of Domestic Sovereign Default

w19476 John H. Cochrane
The New-Keynesian Liquidity Trap

w19475 Scott R. Baker
Nicholas Bloom

Does Uncertainty Reduce Growth? Using Disasters as Natural Experiments

w19469 Serena Ng
Jonathan H. Wright

Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling

w19442 Lars E.O. Svensson
The Possible Unemployment Cost of Average Inflation below a Credible Target

w19421 Hui Chen
Michael Michaux
Nikolai Roussanov

Houses as ATMs? Mortgage Refinancing and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

w19418 Jeffrey A. Miron
Natalia Rigol

Bank Failures and Output During the Great Depression

w19408 Jonathan N. Millar
Stephen D. Oliner
Daniel E. Sichel

Time-To-Plan Lags for Commercial Construction Projects

w19389 Arvind Krishnamurthy
Stefan Nagel

Interpreting Repo Statistics in the Flow of Funds Accounts

w19382 Zheng Liu
Jianjun Miao
Tao Zha

Land Prices and Unemployment

w19368 Michael Woodford
Macroeconomic Analysis without the Rational Expectations Hypothesis

w19355 Joshua D. Angrist
Òscar Jordà
Guido Kuersteiner

Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited

w19362 Anton Korinek
Enrique G. Mendoza

From Sudden Stops to Fisherian Deflation: Quantitative Theory and Policy Implications

w19350 Eric Anderson
Emi Nakamura
Duncan Simester
Jón Steinsson

Informational Rigidities and the Stickiness of Temporary Sales

w19343 Harald Uhlig
Sovereign Default Risk and Banks in a Monetary Union

w19337 Simon Gilchrist
Egon Zakrajsek

The Impact of the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchase Programs on Corporate Credit Risk

w19313 Emmanuel Farhi
Iván Werning

A Theory of Macroprudential Policies in the Presence of Nominal Rigidities

w19297 David Greenlaw
James D. Hamilton
Peter Hooper
Frederic S. Mishkin

Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy

w19292 Gary B. Gorton
Andrew Metrick

The Federal Reserve and Financial Regulation: The First Hundred Years

w19288 Ricardo Reis
The Portuguese Slump and Crash and the Euro Crisis

w19265 Lawrence J. Christiano
Martin S. Eichenbaum
Mathias Trabandt

Unemployment and Business Cycles

w19260 Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

High Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality

w19248 S. Borağan Aruoba
Pablo Cuba-Borda
Frank Schorfheide

Macroeconomic Dynamics Near the ZLB: A Tale of Two Countries

w19187 Ricardo Reis
Central Bank Design

w19240 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Hélène Rey

External Adjustment, Global Imbalances and Valuation Effects

w19238 Matthias Fleckenstein
Francis A. Longstaff
Hanno Lustig

Deflation Risk

w19228 Guido Lorenzoni
Ivan Werning

Slow Moving Debt Crises

w19208 Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau
Lu Zhang

Solving the DMP Model Accurately

w19204 Andrew G. Atkeson
Andrea L. Eisfeldt
Pierre-Olivier Weill

Measuring the Financial Soundness of U.S. Firms, 1926–2012

w19192 V.V. Chari
Patrick J. Kehoe

Bailouts, Time Inconsistency, and Optimal Regulation

w19184 Oliver D. Hart
Luigi Zingales

Liquidity and Inefficient Investment

w19180 Ruediger Bachmann
Benjamin Born
Steffen Elstner
Christian Grimme

Time-Varying Business Volatility, Price Setting, and the Real Effects of Monetary Policy

w19171 Karel Mertens
Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence

w19159 Kirsten Wandschneider
Lending to Lemons: Landschafts-Credit in 18th Century Prussia

w19156 David S. Scharfstein
Adi Sunderam

Concentration in Mortgage Lending, Refinancing Activity and Mortgage Rates

w19152 Edward P. Herbst
Frank Schorfheide

Sequential Monte Carlo Sampling for DSGE Models

w19148 Joseph S. Vavra
Inflation Dynamics and Time-Varying Volatility: New Evidence and an Ss Interpretation

w19136 Loukas Karabarbounis
Brent Neiman

The Global Decline of the Labor Share

w19129 Mark Gertler
Nobuhiro Kiyotaki

Banking, Liquidity and Bank Runs in an Infinite-Horizon Economy

w19112 Michael D. Bordo
Harold James

The European Crisis in the Context of the History of Previous Financial Crises

w19099 Christopher J. Nekarda
Valerie A. Ramey

The Cyclical Behavior of the Price-Cost Markup

w19079 David G. Blanchflower
Andrew J. Oswald

Does High Home-Ownership Impair the Labor Market?

w19056 James D. Hamilton
Jing Cynthia Wu

Risk Premia in Crude Oil Futures Prices

w19050 Rajkamal Iyer
Manju Puri
Nicholas Ryan

Do Depositors Monitor Banks?

w19039 Viral V. Acharya
Sascha Steffen

The “Greatest” Carry Trade Ever? Understanding Eurozone Bank Risks

w19026 Michael D. Bordo
Angela Redish

Putting the ‘System’ in the International Monetary System

w19025 Matteo Cacciatore
Giuseppe Fiori
Fabio Ghironi

Market Deregulation and Optimal Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union

w19022 Guillermo Ordonez
Sustainable Shadow Banking

w19015 Loukas Karabarbounis
The Labor Wedge: MRS vs. MPN

w19010 Diego A. Comin
Martí Mestieri Ferrer

If Technology Has Arrived Everywhere, Why has Income Diverged?

w19009 Venky Venkateswaran
Randall Wright

Pledgability and Liquidity: A New Monetarist Model of Financial and Macroeconomic Activity

w19008 George J. Hall
Thomas J. Sargent

Fiscal Discriminations in Three Wars

w19000 Alisdair McKay
Ricardo Reis

The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the U.S. Business Cycle

w18990 Rüdiger Bachmann
Peter Zorn

What Drives Aggregate Investment?

w18989 Rüdiger Bachmann
Steffen Elstner

Firms’ Optimism and Pessimism

w18985 Linda S. Goldberg
Cédric Tille

A Bargaining Theory of Trade Invoicing and Pricing

w18968 Viral V. Acharya
Robert Engle
Diane Pierret

Testing Macroprudential Stress Tests: The Risk of Regulatory Risk Weights

w18960 Benjamin M. Friedman
The Simple Analytics of Monetary Policy: A Post-Crisis Approach

w18949 Kerwin Kofi Charles
Erik Hurst
Matthew J. Notowidigdo

Manufacturing Decline, Housing Booms, and Non-Employment

w18943 Tobias Adrian
Hyun Song Shin

Procyclical Leverage and Value-at-Risk

w18942 Valentina Bruno
Hyun Song Shin

Capital Flows and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy

w18941 Alejandro Justiniano
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Andrea Tambalotti

Household Leveraging and Deleveraging

w18912 Andrew G. Atkeson
Andrea L. Eisfeldt
Pierre-Olivier Weill

The Market for OTC Derivatives

w18911 Qingyuan Du
Shang-Jin Wei

A Theory of the Competitive Saving Motive

w18906 Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

Informational Frictions and Commodity Markets

w18904 Ing-Haw Cheng
Sahil Raina
Wei Xiong

Wall Street and the Housing Bubble

w18895 Kris James Mitchener
Gary Richardson

Does “Skin in the Game” Reduce Risk Taking? Leverage, Liability and the Long-Run Consequences of New Deal Banking Reforms

w18890 Mary Amiti
David E. Weinstein

How Much do Bank Shocks Affect Investment? Evidence from Matched Bank-Firm Loan Data

w18888 Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Shifting Mandates: The Federal Reserve’s First Centennial

w18883 Marianne Bertrand
Adair Morse

Trickle-Down Consumption

w18870 Ulrich Mueller
Mark W. Watson

Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction

w18864 Marco Bassetto
Christopher Phelan

Speculative Runs on Interest Rate Pegs

w18860 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

Are Sticky Prices Costly? Evidence From The Stock Market

w18857 Augustin Landier
David Sraer
David Thesmar

Banks' Exposure to Interest Rate Risk and The Transmission of Monetary Policy

w18829 Ariel Burstein
Gita Gopinath

International Prices and Exchange Rates

w18828 Michael D. Bordo
Hugh Rockoff

Not Just the Great Contraction: Friedman and Schwartz’s A Monetary History of the United States 1867 to 1960

w18826 Pascal Michaillat
Emmanuel Saez

Aggregate Demand, Idle Time, and Unemployment

w18806 Jordi Galí
Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles

w18800 George-Marios Angeletos
Fabrice Collard
Harris Dellas
Behzad Diba

Optimal Public Debt Management and Liquidity Provision

w18766 Jaromir Nosal
Guillermo Ordoñez

Uncertainty as Commitment

w18762 Jing Wu
Joseph Gyourko
Yongheng Deng

Is There Evidence of a Real Estate Collateral Channel Effect on Listed Firm Investment in China?

w18761 Peter A. Diamond
Cyclical Unemployment, Structural Unemployment

w18759 Robert J. Barro
Sanjay P. Misra

Gold Returns

w18751 Kathryn M.E. Dominguez
Matthew D. Shapiro

Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?

w18746 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

The Missing Transmission Mechanism in the Monetary Explanation of the Great Depression

w18737 Ricardo J. Caballero
Emmanuel Farhi

A Model of the Safe Asset Mechanism (SAM): Safety Traps and Economic Policy

w18732 Gary B. Gorton
Guillermo Ordoñez

The Supply and Demand for Safe Assets

w18730 Ricardo Reis
The Mystique Surrounding the Central Bank's Balance Sheet, Applied to the European Crisis

w18716 John B. Taylor
International Monetary Coordination and the Great Deviation

w18705 Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

Price Rigidity: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications

w18668 Laurence M. Ball
Daniel Leigh
Prakash Loungani

Okun's Law: Fit at Fifty?

w18665 David Card
Stefano DellaVigna

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