NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Papers on Monetary Economics

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2017
w23266 Manuel Amador
Javier Bianchi
Luigi Bocola
Fabrizio Perri

Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound
w23270 Martin Beraja
Andreas Fuster
Erik Hurst
Joseph Vavra

Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy
w23281 Emmanuel Farhi
Iván Werning

Monetary Policy, Bounded Rationality, and Incomplete Markets
w23287 Òscar Jordà
Björn Richter
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis
w23288 Greg Buchak
Gregor Matvos
Tomasz Piskorski
Amit Seru

Fintech, Regulatory Arbitrage, and the Rise of Shadow Banks
w23220 Michael D. Bordo
Harold James

Partial Fiscalization: Some Lessons on Europe's Unfinished Business
w23225 Sydney C. Ludvigson
Sai Ma
Serena Ng

Shock Restricted Structural Vector-Autoregressions
w23228 Ulrike Malmendier
Stefan Nagel
Zhen Yan

The Making of Hawks and Doves: Inflation Experiences on the FOMC
w23235 Patrick J. Kehoe
Elena Pastorino

Financial Markets and Fiscal Unions
w23216 Efraim Benmelech
Carola Frydman
Dimitris Papanikolaou

Financial Frictions and Employment during the Great Depression
w23189 Michael D. Bordo
The Operation and Demise of the Bretton Woods System; 1958 to 1971
w23194 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

China's Gradualistic Economic Approach and Financial Markets
w23172 Joshua K. Hausman
Paul W. Rhode
Johannes F. Wieland

Recovery from the Great Depression: The Farm Channel in Spring 1933
w23186 Ulrich K. Müller
Mark W. Watson

Long-Run Covariability
w23163 Fatih Guvenen
Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
Jae Song
Motohiro Yogo

Worker Betas: Five Facts about Systematic Earnings Risk
w23142 André Kurmann
Eric Sims

Revisions in Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks
w23143 David Berger
Joseph Vavra

Shocks vs. Responsiveness: What Drives Time-Varying Dispersion?
w23149 Yusuf Soner Baskaya
Julian di Giovanni
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Mehmet Fatih Ulu

International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles
w23147 Christopher L. House
Christian Proebsting
Linda L. Tesar

Austerity in the Aftermath of the Great Recession
w23154 Andrew Fieldhouse
Karel Mertens
Morten O. Ravn

The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar US Housing Credit Policy
w23165 Andrew J. Fieldhouse
Karel Mertens

A Narrative Analysis of Mortgage Asset Purchases by Federal Agencies
w23156 Roger E.A. Farmer
The End of Alchemy: A Review Essay
w23157 Michael T. Belongia
Peter N. Ireland

Circumventing the Zero Lower Bound with Monetary Policy Rules Based on Money
w23167 Kyriakos T. Chousakos
Gary B. Gorton

Bank Health Post-Crisis
w23134 Ethan Ilzetzki
Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?
w23135 Ethan Ilzetzki
Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

The Country Chronologies to Exchange Rate Arrangements into the 21st Century: Will the Anchor Currency Hold?
w23093 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Neil R. Mehrotra
Jacob A. Robbins

A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation
w23066 Francesco D’Acunto
Ryan Liu
Carolin Pflueger
Michael Weber

Flexible Prices and Leverage
w23074 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Large and State-Dependent Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments
w23083 Thomas Philippon
Pierre Pessarossi
Boubacar Camara

Backtesting European Stress Tests
w23032 Joseph E. Stiglitz
Macro-economic Management in an Electronic Credit/Financial System
w23055 Douglas W. Diamond
Yunzhi Hu
Raghuram G. Rajan

Pledgeability, Industry Liquidity, and Financing Cycles
w23030 Charles G. Nathanson
Eric Zwick

Arrested Development: Theory and Evidence of Supply-Side Speculation in the Housing Market
2016
w23004 Anton Korinek
Currency Wars or Efficient Spillovers? A General Theory of International Policy Cooperation
w23014 Ricardo Reis
Can the Central Bank Alleviate Fiscal Burdens?
w22969 Michael Gelman
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Shachar Kariv
Dmitri Koustas
Matthew D. Shapiro
Dan Silverman
Steven Tadelis

The Response of Consumer Spending to Changes in Gasoline Prices
w22978 Mel Win Khaw
Luminita Stevens
Michael Woodford

Discrete Adjustment to a Changing Environment: Experimental Evidence
w22979 John H. Cochrane
Stepping on a Rake: Replication and Diagnosis
w22941 Guido Ascari
Louis Phaneuf
Eric Sims

Business Cycles, Investment Shocks, and the "Barro-King" Curse
w22943 Camila Casas
Federico J. Díez
Gita Gopinath
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

Dominant Currency Paradigm
w22948 Laurence Ball
Anusha Chari
Prachi Mishra

Understanding Inflation in India
w22958 Cosmin L. Ilut
Hikaru Saijo

Learning, Confidence, and Business Cycles
w22954 Xavier Gabaix
A Behavioral New Keynesian Model
w22903 David Berger
Nicholas Turner
Eric Zwick

Stimulating Housing Markets
w22878 Daniel Green
Brian T. Melzer
Jonathan A. Parker
Arcenis Rojas

Accelerator or Brake? Cash for Clunkers, Household Liquidity, and Aggregate Demand
w22874 Claudia M. Buch
Linda Goldberg

Cross-Border Prudential Policy Spillovers: How Much? How Important? Evidence from the International Banking Research Network
w22891 Jon Cohen
Kinda Cheryl Hachem
Gary Richardson

Relationship Lending and the Great Depression: Measurement and New Implications
w22897 Germán Gutiérrez
Thomas Philippon

Investment-less Growth: An Empirical Investigation
w22856 Jing Cynthia Wu
Ji Zhang

A Shadow Rate New Keynesian Model
w22866 Martín Uribe
Is The Monetarist Arithmetic Unpleasant?
w22827 Simon Gilchrist
Raphael Schoenle
Jae Sim
Egon Zakrajšek

Inflation Dynamics During the Financial Crisis
w22831 Andreas Neuhierl
Michael Weber

Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Time-Series Evidence
w22794 George-Marios Angeletos
Fabrice Collard
Harris Dellas

Public Debt as Private Liquidity: Optimal Policy
w22784 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Sanjay R. Singh

Log-linear Approximation versus an Exact Solution at the ZLB in the New Keynesian Model
w22785 George-Marios Angeletos
Chen Lian

Forward Guidance without Common Knowledge
w22787 Gary Gorton
Guillermo Ordoñez

Fighting Crises
w22790 Tarek A. Hassan
Thomas M. Mertens
Tony Zhang

Currency Manipulation
w22761 Robert E. Hall
Ricardo Reis

Achieving Price Stability by Manipulating the Central Bank's Payment on Reserves
w22751 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

A Model of Fickle Capital Flows and Retrenchment
w22735 Alan S. Blinder
Michael Ehrmann
Jakob de Haan
David-Jan Jansen

Necessity as the Mother of Invention: Monetary Policy after the Crisis
w22741 Kristin Forbes
Ida Hjortsoe
Tsvetelina Nenova

Current Account Deficits During Heightened Risk: Menacing or Mitigating?
w22743 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts
w22729 Arvind Krishnamurthy
Jennie Bai
Charles-Henri Weymuller

Measuring Liquidity Mismatch in the Banking Sector
w22726 John Ameriks
Joseph Briggs
Andrew Caplin
Matthew D. Shapiro
Christopher Tonetti

Late-in-Life Risks and the Under-Insurance Puzzle
w22693 Michael T. Belongia
Peter N. Ireland

The Evolution of U.S. Monetary Policy: 2000 - 2007
w22695 Matthew Baron
Wei Xiong

Credit Expansion and Neglected Crash Risk
w22663 Pedro Brinca
V. V. Chari
Patrick J. Kehoe
Ellen McGrattan

Accounting for Business Cycles
w22645 Jose Berrospide
Ricardo Correa
Linda Goldberg
Friederike Niepmann

International Banking and Cross-border Effects of Regulation: Lessons from the United States
w22638 Marco Di Maggio
Amir Kermani
Christopher Palmer

How Quantitative Easing Works: Evidence on the Refinancing Channel
w22639 Vladimir Asriyan
Luca Fornaro
Alberto Martin
Jaume Ventura

Monetary Policy for a Bubbly World
w22650 Kaiji Chen
Patrick Higgins
Daniel F. Waggoner
Tao Zha

China Pro-Growth Monetary Policy and Its Asymmetric Transmission
w22613 Carlos Garriga
Finn E. Kydland
Roman Šustek

Nominal Rigidities in Debt and Product Markets
w22614 Patrick Kehoe
Elena Pastorino
Virgiliu Midrigan

Debt Constraints and Employment
w22619 Gary Gorton
Tyler Muir

Mobile Collateral versus Immobile Collateral
w22594 Julien Bengui
Javier Bianchi
Louphou Coulibaly

Financial Safety Nets
w22599 Gary Gorton
Ping He

Optimal Monetary Policy in a Collateralized Economy
w22602 Debraj Ray
Arthur Robson

Certified Random: A New Order for Co-Authorship
w22557 Gregori Galofré-Vilà
Martin McKee
Christopher M. Meissner
David Stuckler

The Economic Consequences of the 1953 London Debt Agreement
w22563 Francesco D’Acunto
Daniel Hoang
Michael Weber

The Effect of Unconventional Fiscal Policy on Consumption Expenditure
w22572 Francesco Bianchi
Martin Lettau
Sydney C. Ludvigson

Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation: Evidence From a Markov-Switching cay
w22581 Michael Bordo
Arunima Sinha

A Lesson from the Great Depression that the Fed Might have Learned: A Comparison of the 1932 Open Market Purchases with Quantitative Easing
w22527 Hengjie Ai
Ravi Bansal

Risk Preferences and The Macro Announcement Premium
w22533 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Yuliy Sannikov

The I Theory of Money
w22535 Guillermo A. Calvo
From Chronic Inflation to Chronic Deflation: Focusing on Expectations and Liquidity Disarray Since WWII
w22506 Craig Benedict
Mario J. Crucini
Anthony Landry

On What States Do Prices Depend? Answers From Ecuador
w22505 Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson
Patrick Sun
Daniel Villar

The Elusive Costs of Inflation: Price Dispersion during the U.S. Great Inflation
w22510 Marc Dordal-i-Carreras
Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Johannes Wieland

Infrequent but Long-Lived Zero-Bound Episodes and the Optimal Rate of Inflation
w22489 Jordi Galí
Tommaso Monacelli

Understanding the Gains from Wage Flexibility: The Exchange Rate Connection
w22490 Cosmin L. Ilut
Rosen Valchev
Nicolas Vincent

Paralyzed by Fear: Rigid and Discrete Pricing under Demand Uncertainty
w22475 Luca Benati
Robert E. Lucas
Jr.
Juan Pablo Nicolini
Warren Weber

International Evidence on Long Run Money Demand
w22458 Dirk Krueger
Kurt Mitman
Fabrizio Perri

On the Distribution of the Welfare Losses of Large Recessions
w22431 Edward C. Prescott
Ryan Wessel

Monetary Policy with 100 Percent Reserve Banking: An Exploration
w22451 Hie Joo Ahn
James D. Hamilton

Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics
w22410 Laurence Ball
The Fed and Lehman Brothers: Introduction and Summary
w22418 Tobias Broer
Niels-Jakob H. Hansen
Per Krusell
Erik Öberg

The New Keynesian Transmission Mechanism: A Heterogenous-Agent Perspective
w22415 Ricardo Reis
QE in the future: the central bank's balance sheet in a fiscal crisis
w22384 Nicholas Kozeniauskas
Anna Orlik
Laura Veldkamp

The Common Origin of Uncertainty Shocks
w22402 Patrick Higgins
Tao Zha
Karen Zhong

Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation
w22380 David Aikman
Oliver Bush
Alan M. Taylor

Monetary Versus Macroprudential Policies: Causal Impacts of Interest Rates and Credit Controls in the Era of the UK Radcliffe Report
w22370 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Thomas Philippon
Dimitri Vayanos

The Analytics of the Greek Crisis
w22361 Fernando E. Alvarez
Francesco Lippi
Juan Passadore

Are State and Time Dependent Models Really Different?
w22351 Marco Di Maggio
Marcin Kacperczyk

The Unintended Consequences of the Zero Lower Bound Policy
w22354 Monika Piazzesi
Martin Schneider

Housing and Macroeconomics
w22356 John B. Taylor
The Staying Power of Staggered Wage and Price Setting Models in Macroeconomics
w22359 Alisdair McKay
Ricardo Reis

Optimal Automatic Stabilizers
w22319 Dirk Krueger
Kurt Mitman
Fabrizio Perri

Macroeconomics and Household Heterogeneity
w22330 Harold Cole
Daniel Neuhann
Guillermo Ordoñez

Debt Crises: For Whom the Bell Tolls
w22331 Greg Kaplan
Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

Inflation at the Household Level
w22341 Mark Gertler
Christopher Huckfeldt
Antonella Trigari

Unemployment Fluctuations, Match Quality, and the Wage Cyclicality of New Hires
w22343 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Yuliy Sannikov

Macro, Money and Finance: A Continuous Time Approach
w22298 Manuel Amador
Javier Bianchi
Luigi Bocola
Fabrizio Perri

Reverse Speculative Attacks
w22297 George-Marios Angeletos
Chen Lian

Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics: Accommodating Frictions in Coordination
w22299 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Neil R. Mehrotra
Sanjay R. Singh
Lawrence H. Summers

A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation
w22307 Kristin Forbes
Dennis Reinhardt
Tomasz Wieladek

The Spillovers, Interactions, and (Un)Intended Consequences of Monetary and Regulatory Policies
w22311 Julio Garín
Robert Lester
Eric Sims

Are Supply Shocks Contractionary at the ZLB? Evidence from Utilization-Adjusted TFP Data
w22283 Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
Alessandro Rebucci

Does Easing Monetary Policy Increase Financial Instability?
w22285 Michael Woodford
Quantitative Easing and Financial Stability
w22295 Emmanuel Farhi
Matteo Maggiori

A Model of the International Monetary System
w22256 Atif Mian
Amir Sufi

Who Bears the Cost of Recessions? The Role of House Prices and Household Debt
w22258 Michael Bailey
Ruiqing Cao
Theresa Kuchler
Johannes Stroebel

Social Networks and Housing Markets
w22259 Marco Del Negro
Gauti Eggertsson
Andrea Ferrero
Nobuhiro Kiyotaki

The Great Escape? A Quantitative Evaluation of the Fed's Liquidity Facilities
w22271 Zhiguo He
Arvind Krishnamurthy
Konstantin Milbradt

A Model of Safe Asset Determination
w22279 Susanto Basu
Christopher L. House

Allocative and Remitted Wages: New Facts and Challenges for Keynesian Models
w22243 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Kevin Proulx

Bernanke's No-arbitrage Argument Revisited: Can Open Market Operations in Real Assets Eliminate the Liquidity Trap?
w22224 Gianluca Benigno
Huigang Chen
Christopher Otrok
Alessandro Rebucci
Eric R. Young

Optimal Capital Controls and Real Exchange Rate Policies: A Pecuniary Externality Perspective
w22228 Roger E.A. Farmer
Pricing Assets in an Economy with Two Types of People
w22232 Greg Kaplan
Kurt Mitman
Giovanni L. Violante

Non-durable Consumption and Housing Net Worth in the Great Recession: Evidence from Easily Accessible Data
w22238 Max Raskin
David Yermack

Digital Currencies, Decentralized Ledgers, and the Future of Central Banking
w22196 Robert E. Hall
Understanding the Decline in the Safe Real Interest Rate
w22210 Gary B. Gorton
The History and Economics of Safe Assets
w22212 Saki Bigio
Jennifer La’O

Financial Frictions in Production Networks
w22183 Drew D. Creal
Jing Cynthia Wu

Bond Risk Premia in Consumption-based Models
w22169 Nicola Cetorelli
Linda S. Goldberg

Organizational Complexity and Balance Sheet Management in Global Banks
w22172 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Neil R. Mehrotra
Lawrence H. Summers

Secular Stagnation in the Open Economy
w22177 Julio Garín
Robert Lester
Eric Sims

Raise Rates to Raise Inflation? Neo-Fisherianism in the New Keynesian Model
w22148 Efraim Benmelech
Ralf R. Meisenzahl
Rodney Ramcharan

The Real Effects of Liquidity During the Financial Crisis: Evidence from Automobiles
w22152 Itamar Drechsler
Alexi Savov
Philipp Schnabl

The Deposits Channel of Monetary Policy
w22154 Eric R. Sims
Differences in Quarterly Utilization-Adjusted TFP by Vintage, with an Application to News Shocks
w22163 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Loukas Karabarbounis

The Limited Macroeconomic Effects of Unemployment Benefit Extensions
w22128 Matteo Cacciatore
Romain Duval
Giuseppe Fiori
Fabio Ghironi

Market Reforms in the Time of Imbalance
w22129 Alisdair McKay
Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

The Discounted Euler Equation: A Note
w22133 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Yuliy Sannikov

On the Optimal Inflation Rate
w22135 Roger Farmer
Pawel Zabczyk

The Theory of Unconventional Monetary Policy
w22136 Roger E.A. Farmer
Konstantin Platonov

Animal Spirits in a Monetary Model
w22140 Jérémie Cohen-Setton
Joshua K. Hausman
Johannes F. Wieland

Supply-Side Policies in the Depression: Evidence from France
w22141 Johannes F. Wieland
Mu-Jeung Yang

Financial Dampening
w22142 Alberto F. Cavallo
Are Online and Offline Prices Similar? Evidence from Large Multi-Channel Retailers
w22111 Alberto Cavallo
Roberto Rigobon

The Billion Prices Project: Using Online Prices for Measurement and Research
w22119 Mary Amiti
Oleg Itskhoki
Jozef Konings

International Shocks and Domestic Prices: How Large Are Strategic Complementarities?
w22103 Alberto Cavallo
Guillermo Cruces
Ricardo Perez-Truglia

Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina
w22074 Kris James Mitchener
Gary Richardson

Network Contagion and Interbank Amplification during the Great Depression
w22053 Douglas W. Diamond
Anil K Kashyap

Liquidity Requirements, Liquidity Choice and Financial Stability
w22058 Dario Caldara
Cristina Fuentes-Albero
Simon Gilchrist
Egon Zakrajšek

The Macroeconomic Impact of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks
w22059 Michael D. Bordo
Christopher M. Meissner

Fiscal and Financial Crises
w22064 Gary Gorton
Ellis W. Tallman

Too-Big-To-Fail Before the Fed
w22021 Michael D. Bordo
John V. Duca
Christoffer Koch

Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Credit Channel: Aggregate and Bank Level U.S. Evidence over Several Decades
w22036 Gary Gorton
Ellis W. Tallman

How Did Pre-Fed Banking Panics End?
w22044 Ricardo J. Caballero
Emmanuel Farhi
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

Safe Asset Scarcity and Aggregate Demand
w22005 Diego Anzoategui
Diego Comin
Mark Gertler
Joseba Martinez

Endogenous Technology Adoption and R&D as Sources of Business Cycle Persistence
w22006 Gaetano Gaballo
Ramon Marimon

Breaking the Spell with Credit-Easing: Self-Confirming Credit Crises in Competitive Search Economies
w22008 Gary Gorton
Guillermo Ordoñez

Good Booms, Bad Booms
w22009 Narayana R. Kocherlakota
Sluggish Inflation Expectations: A Markov Chain Analysis
w21978 Valerie A. Ramey
Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation
w21993 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Luis Garicano
Philip Lane
Marco Pagano
Ricardo Reis
Tano Santos
David Thesmar
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Dimitri Vayanos

The Sovereign-Bank Diabolic Loop and ESBies
w21956 Martin Beraja
Erik Hurst
Juan Ospina

The Aggregate Implications of Regional Business Cycles
w21958 Carmen M. Reinhart
Vincent Reinhart
Christoph Trebesch

Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015
w21942 Alejandro Justiniano
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Andrea Tambalotti

A Simple Model of Subprime Borrowers and Credit Growth
w21902 Lars E.O. Svensson
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind: Are Costs Larger Also with Less Effective Macroprudential Policy?
w21871 Robert J. Barro
Tao Jin

Rare Events and Long-Run Risks
w21878 Jeffrey A. Frankel
International Coordination
w21879 David López-Salido
Jeremy C. Stein
Egon Zakrajšek

Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle
w21880 Kinda Cheryl Hachem
Zheng Michael Song

Liquidity Regulation and Credit Booms: Theory and Evidence from China
w21890 Kaiji Chen
Jue Ren
Tao Zha

What We Learn from China's Rising Shadow Banking: Exploring the Nexus of Monetary Tightening and Banks' Role in Entrusted Lending
w21892 Mark Gertler
Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
Andrea Prestipino

Wholesale Banking and Bank Runs in Macroeconomic Modelling of Financial Crises
w21897 Greg Kaplan
Benjamin Moll
Giovanni L. Violante

Monetary Policy According to HANK
w21843 Emmanuel Farhi
Jean Tirole

Deadly Embrace: Sovereign and Financial Balance Sheets Doom Loops
w21852 Hélène Rey
International Channels of Transmission of Monetary Policy and the Mundellian Trilemma
w21856 Joseph Davis
Marc D. Weidenmier

America's First Great Moderation
w21863 James D. Hamilton
Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts
w21864 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Johannes Wieland

Secular Labor Reallocation and Business Cycles
w21866 Narayana Kocherlakota
Fragility of Purely Real Macroeconomic Models

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