NBER Papers in Monetary Economics

w21614 Mariana García-Schmidt
Michael Woodford

Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect-Foresight Analysis

w21599 Louis Phaneuf
Eric R. Sims
Jean Gardy Victor

Inflation, Output, and Markup Dynamics with Forward-Looking Wage and Price Setters

w21581 Atif R. Mian
Amir Sufi
Emil Verner

Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide

w21576 Peter N. Ireland
Monetary Policy, Bond Risk Premia, and the Economy

w21569 Jeremy C. Stein
Adi Sunderam

Gradualism in Monetary Policy: A Time-Consistency Problem?

w21567 Sumit Agarwal
Souphala Chomsisengphet
Neale Mahoney
Johannes Stroebel

Do Banks Pass Through Credit Expansions? The Marginal Profitability of Consumer Lending During the Great Recession

w21550 Andrew B. Abel
Crowding Out in Ricardian Economies

w21549 Andrew B. Abel
The Analytics of Investment, q, and Cash Flow

w21528 Ricardo Lagos
Shengxing Zhang

Monetary Exchange in Over-the-Counter Markets: A Theory of Speculative Bubbles, the Fed Model, and Self-fulfilling Liquidity Crises

w21512 Sumit Agarwal
Gene Amromin
Souphala Chomsisengphet
Tomasz Piskorski
Amit Seru
Vincent Yao

Mortgage Refinancing, Consumer Spending, and Competition: Evidence from the Home Affordable Refinancing Program

w21490 Alberto Cavallo
Scraped Data and Sticky Prices

w21486 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Leveraged Bubbles

w21476 James D. Hamilton
Ethan S. Harris
Jan Hatzius
Kenneth D. West

The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present and Future

w21448 Iván Werning
Incomplete Markets and Aggregate Demand

w21430 Jordi Galí
Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem Revisited

w21420 Julio Garín
Robert Lester
Eric Sims

On the Desirability of Nominal GDP Targeting

w21392 Guido Ascari
Louis Phaneuf
Eric Sims

On the Welfare and Cyclical Implications of Moderate Trend Inflation

w21386 Steffen Andersen
John Y. Campbell
Kasper Meisner Nielsen
Tarun Ramadorai

Inattention and Inertia in Household Finance: Evidence from the Danish Mortgage Market

w21369 Jonathan Parker
Why Don't Households Smooth Consumption? Evidence from a 25 Million Dollar Experiment

w21350 Carmen M. Reinhart
The Antecedents and Aftermath of Financial Crises as told by Carlos F. Díaz Alejandro

w21341 Eugene N. White
Protecting Financial Stability in the Aftermath of World War I: The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's Dissenting Policy

w21336 Saroj Bhattarai
Gauti B. Eggertsson
Bulat Gafarov

Time Consistency and the Duration of Government Debt: A Signalling Theory of Quantitative Easing

w21334 Juliane Begenau
Monika Piazzesi
Martin Schneider

Banks' Risk Exposures

w21333 Carmen M. Reinhart
Miguel Angel Santos

From Financial Repression to External Distress: The Case of Venezuela

w21328 Fernando Alvarez
Gadi Barlevy

Mandatory Disclosure and Financial Contagion

w21320 Manuel Adelino
Antoinette Schoar
Felipe Severino

Loan Originations and Defaults in the Mortgage Crisis: Further Evidence

w21318 Aviv Nevo
Arlene Wong

The Elasticity of Substitution Between Time and Market Goods: Evidence from the Great Recession

w21316 Atif Mian
Amir Sufi
Nasim Khoshkhou

Government Economic Policy, Sentiments, and Consumption

w21305 Florentin Butaru
QingQing Chen
Brian Clark
Sanmay Das
Andrew W. Lo
Akhtar Siddique

Risk and Risk Management in the Credit Card Industry

w21297 Naci H. Mocan
Luiza Pogorelova

Why Work More? The Impact of Taxes, and Culture of Leisure on Labor Supply in Europe

w21282 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

Core Inflation and Trend Inflation

w21261 Fernando Ferreira
Joseph Gyourko

A New Look at the U.S. Foreclosure Crisis: Panel Data Evidence of Prime and Subprime Borrowers from 1997 to 2012

w21260 Nicola Gennaioli
Yueran Ma
Andrei Shleifer

Expectations and Investment

w21252 Regis Barnichon
Andrew Figura

Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation

w21251 Dominick Bartelme
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Linkages and Economic Development

w21244 Chun Chang
Kaiji Chen
Daniel F. Waggoner
Tao Zha

Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy

w21228 Nicola Fuchs-Schuendeln
Tarek Alexander Hassan

Natural Experiments in Macroeconomics

w21226 Ricardo Reis
Different Types of Central Bank Insolvency and the Central Role of Seignorage

w21220 Claudia R. Sahm
Matthew D. Shapiro
Joel Slemrod

Balance-Sheet Households and Fiscal Stimulus: Lessons from the Payroll Tax Cut and Its Expiration

w21203 Atif Mian
Amir Sufi

Household Debt and Defaults from 2000 to 2010: Facts from Credit Bureau Data

w21201 Miguel Faria-e-Castro
Joseba Martinez
Thomas Philippon

Runs versus Lemons: Information Disclosure and Fiscal Capacity

w21199 Jae Song
David J. Price
Fatih Guvenen
Nicholas Bloom
Till von Wachter

Firming Up Inequality

w21182 Ian Dew-Becker
Stefano Giglio
Anh Le
Marius Rodriguez

The Price of Variance Risk

w21179 Guillaume Rocheteau
Pierre-Olivier Weill
Tsz-Nga Wong

A Tractable Model of Monetary Exchange with Ex-post Heterogeneity

w21173 Robert E. Hall
Ricardo Reis

Maintaining Central-Bank Financial Stability under New-Style Central Banking

w21172 Evgenia Passari
Hélène Rey

Financial Flows and the International Monetary System

w21162 Hélène Rey
Dilemma not Trilemma: The global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence

w21158 Philippe Bacchetta
Elena Perazzi
Eric van Wincoop

Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises: Can Monetary Policy Really Help?

w21121 Luigi Guiso
Paola Sapienza
Luigi Zingales

Monnet's Error?

w21112 Hanming Fang
Quanlin Gu
Wei Xiong
Li-An Zhou

Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom

w21110 Fernando Alvarez
Francesco Lippi

Cash burns: An inventory model with a cash-credit choice

w21094 David G. Blanchflower
Andrew T. Levin

Labor Market Slack and Monetary Policy

w21092 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Saten Kumar

How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence

w21056 Francesco Bianchi
Rare Events, Financial Crises, and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns

w21039 Alan M. Taylor
Credit, Financial Stability, and the Macroeconomy

w21025 Michael Gelman
Shachar Kariv
Matthew D. Shapiro
Dan Silverman
Steven Tadelis

How Individuals Smooth Spending: Evidence from the 2013 Government Shutdown Using Account Data

w21021 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

New Evidence on the Impact of Financial Crises in Advanced Countries

w21017 Michael Bordo
Harold James

Capital Flows and Domestic and International Order: Trilemmas from Macroeconomics to Political Economy and International Relations

w21007 Erik Hurst
Benjamin J. Keys
Amit Seru
Joseph S. Vavra

Regional Redistribution Through the U.S. Mortgage Market

w20973 John Ameriks
Joseph S. Briggs
Andrew Caplin
Matthew D. Shapiro
Christopher Tonetti

Long-Term Care Utility and Late in Life Saving

w20972 John Ameriks
Andrew Caplin
Minjoon Lee
Matthew D. Shapiro
Christopher Tonetti

The Wealth of Wealthholders

w20947 Atif R. Mian
Amir Sufi

Fraudulent Income Overstatement on Mortgage Applications during the Credit Expansion of 2002 to 2005

w20913 Fatih Guvenen
Fatih Karahan
Serdar Ozkan
Jae Song

What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Risk?

w20898 Pranjul Bhandari
Jeffrey A. Frankel

Nominal GDP Targeting for Developing Countries

w20882 Alisdair McKay
Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

The Power of Forward Guidance Revisited

w20874 Alejandro Justiniano
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Andrea Tambalotti

Credit Supply and the Housing Boom

w20865 Daron Acemoglu
Asuman Ozdaglar
Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi

Microeconomic Origins of Macroeconomic Tail Risks

w20862 Martin S. Feldstein
Ending the Euro Crisis?

w20860 Kristin Forbes
Marcel Fratzscher
Roland Straub

Capital Flow Management Measures: What Are They Good For?

w20848 Manuel Adelino
Antoinette Schoar
Felipe Severino

Loan Originations and Defaults in the Mortgage Crisis: The Role of the Middle Class

w20832 Richard S. Grossman
Hugh Rockoff

Fighting the Last War: Economists on the Lender of Last Resort

w20827 Alberto Alesina
Omar Barbiero
Carlo Favero
Francesco Giavazzi
Matteo Paradisi

Austerity in 2009-2013

w20824 Michael D. Bordo
Pierre L. Siklos

Central Bank Credibility: An Historical and Quantitative Exploration

w20823 Monika Piazzesi
Martin Schneider
Johannes Stroebel

Segmented Housing Search

w20819 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Viacheslav Sheremirov
Oleksandr Talavera

Price Setting in Online Markets: Does IT Click?

w20817 Fernando Alvarez
Francesco Lippi
Luigi Paciello

Monetary Shocks in Models with Inattentive Producers

w20807 George-Marios Angeletos
Fabrice Collard
Harris Dellas

Quantifying Confidence

w20796 Lars E.O. Svensson
Forward Guidance

w20771 Òscar Jordà
Moritz HP. Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Betting the House

w20770 Supreet Kaur
Nominal Wage Rigidity in Village Labor Markets

w20768 Judith A. Chevalier
Anil K Kashyap

Best Prices: Price Discrimination and Consumer Substitution

w20755 Michael D. Bordo
Owen F. Humpage
Anna J. Schwartz

The Evolution of the Federal Reserve Swap Lines since 1962

w20746 Julien Hugonnier
Benjamin Lester
Pierre-Olivier Weill

Heterogeneity in Decentralized Asset Markets

w20741 Christiane Baumeister
James D. Hamilton

Sign Restrictions, Structural Vector Autoregressions, and Useful Prior Information

w20737 Frederic S. Mishkin
Eugene N. White

Unprecedented Actions: The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis in Historical Perspective

w20725 Francesco Bianchi
Howard Kung

Growth, Slowdowns, and Recoveries

w20719 Valerie A. Ramey
Sarah Zubairy

Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from U.S. Historical Data

w20715 Laurence Ball
Sandeep Mazumder

A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment

w20710 Johannes Stroebel
Joseph Vavra

House Prices, Local Demand, and Retail Prices

w20707 Chiara Fratto
Harald Uhlig

Accounting for Post-Crisis Inflation and Employment: A Retro Analysis

w20704 Michael Greenstone
Alexandre Mas
Hoai-Luu Nguyen

Do Credit Market Shocks affect the Real Economy? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Great Recession and ‘Normal’ Economic Times

w20693 Michael Bordo
Pierre Siklos

Central Bank Credibility, Reputation and Inflation Targeting in Historical Perspective

w20687 Florin O. Bilbiie
Tommaso Monacelli
Roberto Perotti

Is Government Spending at the Zero Lower Bound Desirable?

w20673 Matthew Gentzkow
Jesse M. Shapiro

Measuring the Sensitivity of Parameter Estimates to Sample Statistics

w20666 Robert B. Barsky
Susanto Basu
Keyoung Lee

Whither News Shocks?

w20656 Michael D. Bordo
Owen F. Humpage

Federal Reserve Policy and Bretton Woods

w20652 Robert J. Barro
Andrew Mollerus

Safe Assets

w20613 John H. Cochrane
Monetary Policy with Interest on Reserves

w20611 Hess Chung
Edward Herbst
Michael T. Kiley

Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Re-examination

w20594 Drew D. Creal
Jing Cynthia Wu

Interest Rate Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations

w20577 Carmen M. Reinhart
Christoph Trebesch

A Distant Mirror of Debt, Default, and Relief

w20576 Alberto Cavallo
Guillermo Cruces
Ricardo Perez-Truglia

Inflation Expectations, Learning and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Field Experiments

w20575 Marco Del Negro
Raiden B. Hasegawa
Frank Schorfheide

Dynamic Prediction Pools: An Investigation of Financial Frictions and Forecasting Performance

w20574 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Neil R. Mehrotra

A Model of Secular Stagnation

w20572 Philippe Martin
Thomas Philippon

Inspecting the Mechanism: Leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone

w20569 Alp Simsek
Andrei Shleifer
Matthew Rognlie

Investment Hangover and the Great Recession

w20566 Francesco Bianchi
Leonardo Melosi

Constrained Discretion and Central Bank Transparency

w20561 Benjamin J. Keys
Tomasz Piskorski
Amit Seru
Vincent Yao

Mortgage Rates, Household Balance Sheets, and the Real Economy

w20560 Fatih Guvenen
Greg Kaplan
Jae Song

The Glass Ceiling and The Paper Floor: Gender Differences among Top Earners, 1981-2012

w20556 Pierpaolo Benigno
Gauti B. Eggertsson
Federica Romei

Dynamic Debt Deleveraging and Optimal Monetary Policy

w20555 Mark Bils
Peter J. Klenow
Benjamin A. Malin

Resurrecting the Role of the Product Market Wedge in Recessions

w20554 Guillaume Bazot
Michael D. Bordo
Eric Monnet

The Price of Stability: The balance sheet policy of the Banque de France and the Gold Standard (1880-1914)

w20527 Horag Choi
Steven Lugauer
Nelson C. Mark

Precautionary Saving of Chinese and U.S. Households

w20518 John Fernald
Mark M. Spiegel
Eric T. Swanson

Monetary Policy Effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR Model

w20517 Joseph E. Stiglitz
Reconstructing Macroeconomic Theory to Manage Economic Policy

w20507 Julio J. Rotemberg
The Federal Reserve's Abandonment of its 1923 Principles

w20501 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles

w20490 Javier Bianchi
Saki Bigio

Banks, Liquidity Management and Monetary Policy

w20486 Eric T. Swanson
John C. Williams

Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates

w20445 Anna Orlik
Laura Veldkamp

Understanding Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of Black Swans

w20419 Gara Afonso
Ricardo Lagos

Trade Dynamics in the Market for Federal Funds

w20416 Andrew G. Atkeson
Andrea L. Eisfeldt
Pierre-Olivier Weill

Entry and Exit in OTC Derivatives Markets

w20408 Cristian Badarinza
John Y. Campbell
Tarun Ramadorai

What Calls to ARMs? International Evidence on Interest Rates and the Choice of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages

w20406 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Oleksandr Talavera

Price Setting in Online Markets: Basic Facts, International Comparisons, and Cross-border Integration

w20390 Andrew Foerster
Juan Rubio-Ramírez
Daniel F. Waggoner
Tao Zha

Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models

w20377 Jianjun Miao
Pengfei Wang
Tao Zha

Liquidity Premia, Price-Rent Dynamics, and Business Cycles

w20365 Kinda Hachem
Resource Allocation and Inefficiency in the Financial Sector

w20339 Jens Hilscher
Alon Raviv
Ricardo Reis

Inflating Away the Public Debt? An Empirical Assessment

w20338 Martin Ravallion
An Exploration of the International Comparison Program's New Global Economic Landscape

w20335 Alan Moreira
Alexi Savov

The Macroeconomics of Shadow Banking

w20314 Seunghoon Na
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martin Uribe
Vivian Z. Yue

A Model of the Twin Ds: Optimal Default and Devaluation

w20303 Frank Schorfheide
Dongho Song
Amir Yaron

Identifying Long-Run Risks: A Bayesian Mixed-Frequency Approach

w20288 Samuel G. Hanson
Andrei Shleifer
Jeremy C. Stein
Robert W. Vishny

Banks as Patient Fixed-Income Investors

w20277 Mark Aguiar
Manuel Amador
Emmanuel Farhi
Gita Gopinath

Coordination and Crisis in Monetary Unions

w20265 Stefan Nagel
The Liquidity Premium of Near-Money Assets

w20255 Tri Vi Dang
Gary Gorton
Bengt Holmström
Guillermo Ordonez

Banks as Secret Keepers

w20238 Francesco Bianchi
Leonardo Melosi

Escaping the Great Recession

w20237 Christoph E. Boehm
Christopher L. House

Optimal Taylor Rules in New Keynesian Models

w20230 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Financial Institutions

w20225 Alberto Cavallo
Brent Neiman
Roberto Rigobon

The Price Impact of Joining a Currency Union: Evidence from Latvia

w20224 Mark Gertler
Peter Karadi

Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs and Economic Activity

w20207 Oliver Hart
Luigi Zingales

Banks Are Where The Liquidity Is

w20194 Francesco Bianchi
Cosmin Ilut

Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs

w20193 Tarek A. Hassan
Thomas M. Mertens

Information Aggregation in a DSGE Model

w20185 Laurence M. Ball
Long-Term Damage from the Great Recession in OECD Countries

w20165 Anil K Kashyap
Dimitrios P. Tsomocos
Alexandros P. Vardoulakis

How does macroprudential regulation change bank credit supply?

w20161 Kinda Hachem
Jing Cynthia Wu

Inflation Announcements and Social Dynamics

w20155 Fernando Alvarez
Hervé Le Bihan
Francesco Lippi

Small and Large Price Changes and the Propagation of Monetary Shocks

w20154 Stefano Giglio
Matteo Maggiori
Johannes Stroebel

No-Bubble Condition: Model-free Tests in Housing Markets

w20152 Atif Mian
Amir Sufi

House Price Gains and U.S. Household Spending from 2002 to 2006

w20141 Itamar Drechsler
Alexi Savov
Philipp Schnabl

A Model of Monetary Policy and Risk Premia

w20134 Michael T. Belongia
Peter N. Ireland

Interest Rates and Money in the Measurement of Monetary Policy

w20133 Stefano Giglio
Matteo Maggiori
Johannes Stroebel

Very Long-Run Discount Rates

w20128 Benjamin M. Friedman
Has the Financial Crisis Permanently Changed the Practice of Monetary Policy? Has It Changed the Theory of Monetary Policy?

w20126 Kenneth S. Rogoff
Costs and Benefits to Phasing Out Paper Currency

w20122 Christian Broda
Jonathan A. Parker

The Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008 and the Aggregate Demand for Consumption

w20115 Drew D. Creal
Jing Cynthia Wu

Estimation of Affine Term Structure Models with Spanned or Unspanned Stochastic Volatility

w20117 Jing Cynthia Wu
Fan Dora Xia

Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound

w20099 Paul Bergin
Ling Feng
Ching-Yi Lin

Financial Frictions and Firm Dynamics

w20094 Simon Gilchrist
David López-Salido
Egon Zakrajšek

Monetary Policy and Real Borrowing Costs at the Zero Lower Bound

w20087 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

Transfer Payments and the Macroeconomy: The Effects of Social Security Benefit Changes, 1952-1991

w20083 Pierre-Cyrille Hautcoeur
Angelo Riva
Eugene N. White

Floating a "Lifeboat": The Banque de France and the Crisis of 1889

w20081 Francesco Bianchi
Cosmin L. Ilut
Martin Schneider

Uncertainty Shocks, Asset Supply and Pricing over the Business Cycle

w20073 Greg Kaplan
Giovanni L. Violante
Justin Weidner

The Wealthy Hand-to-Mouth

w20070 John Y. Campbell
Carolin Pflueger
Luis M. Viceira

Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

w20055 Marco Del Negro
Marc P. Giannoni
Frank Schorfheide

Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models

w20041 Simon Gilchrist
Benoît Mojon

Credit Risk in the Euro Area

w20040 Lawrence J. Christiano
Martin S. Eichenbaum
Mathias Trabandt

Understanding the Great Recession

w20027 Gary B. Gorton
Andrew Metrick
Lei Xie

The Flight from Maturity

w20010 Dolan Antenucci
Michael Cafarella
Margaret Levenstein
Christopher Ré
Matthew D. Shapiro

Using Social Media to Measure Labor Market Flows

w20003 Ron Alquist
Olivier Coibion

Commodity-Price Comovement and Global Economic Activity

w19981 Jordi Gali
Luca Gambetti

The Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Bubbles: Some Evidence

w19970 Anton Korinek
Alp Simsek

Liquidity Trap and Excessive Leverage

w19938 Fumio Hayashi
Junko Koeda

Exiting from QE

w19927 Ricardo J. Caballero
Emmanuel Farhi

The Safety Trap

w19903 Farley Grubb
A New Approach to Solving the Colonial Monetary Puzzle: Evidence from New Jersey, 1709-1775

w19900 Francois Gourio
Leena Rudanko

Can Intangible Capital Explain Cyclical Movements in the Labor Wedge?

w19893 Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson
Miao Liu

Are Chinese Growth and Inflation Too Smooth? Evidence from Engel Curves

w19892 James D. Hamilton
Jing Cynthia Wu

Effects of Index-Fund Investing on Commodity Futures Prices

w19887 Mervyn King
David Low

Measuring the ''World'' Real Interest Rate

w19886 Saroj Bhattarai
Gauti Eggertsson
Raphael Schoenle

Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing? Redux

w19885 Zhiguo He
Arvind Krishnamurthy

A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Systemic Risk

w19877 Greg Kaplan
Guido Menzio

The Morphology of Price Dispersion

w19871 Robert E. Hall
High Discounts and High Unemployment

w19864 Fatih Guvenen
Greg Kaplan
Jae Song

How Risky Are Recessions for Top Earners?

w19854 Xavier Gabaix
Matteo Maggiori

International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics

w19850 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Marianna Kudlyak
John Mondragon

Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data

w19814 Dick van Dijk
Robin L. Lumsdaine
Michel van der Wel

Market Set-Up in Advance of Federal Reserve Policy Decisions

w19792 Xu Cheng
Zhipeng Liao
Frank Schorfheide

Shrinkage Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models with Structural Instabilities

w19790 Joseph S. Vavra
Time-Varying Phillips Curves

w19777 Pascal Michaillat
Emmanuel Saez

An Economical Business-Cycle Model

Generated Sat Oct 10 00:00:18 2015

NBER Videos

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email:

Contact Us