NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Papers in Economic Fluctuations and Growth

NBER Papers in Economic Fluctuations and Growth

browse older papers in this program

2009
w15490 Eric J. Bartelsman
John C. Haltiwanger
Stefano Scarpetta

Cross-Country Differences in Productivity: The Role of Allocation and Selection

w15487 Dimitri Vayanos
Jean-Luc Vila

A Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

w15483 Jonathan Heathcote
Fabrizio Perri
Giovanni L. Violante

Unequal We Stand: An Empirical Analysis of Economic Inequality in the United States, 1967-2006

w15479 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

Fire Sales in a Model of Complexity

w15477 Alejandrina Salcedo
Todd Schoellman
Michčle Tertilt

Families as Roommates: Changes in U.S. Household Size from 1850 to 2000

w15474 James Feyrer
The US Productivity Slowdown, the Baby Boom, and Management Quality

w15467 Olivier J. Blanchard
Marianna Riggi

Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s? A structural interpretation of changes in the macroeconomic effects of oil prices

w15464 Valerie A. Ramey
Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's All in the Timing

w15462 Todd M. Sinai
Nicholas S. Souleles

Can Owning a Home Hedge the Risk of Moving?

w15459 John H. Cochrane
Can Learnability Save New-Keynesian Models?

w15457 Nicolae Gârleanu
Leonid Kogan
Stavros Panageas

The Demographics of Innovation and Asset Returns

w15455 Simon Johnson
William Larson
Chris Papageorgiou
Arvind Subramanian

Is Newer Better? Penn World Table Revisions and Their Impact on Growth Estimates

w15451 Daron Acemoglu
Philippe Aghion
Leonardo Bursztyn
David Hemous

The Environment and Directed Technical Change

w15450 Marcin Kacperczyk
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Laura Veldkamp

Attention Allocation Over the Business Cycle

w15448 Laura Alfaro
Anusha Chari

India Transformed? Insights from the Firm Level 1988-2005

w15442 Wolfgang Keller
International Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and Technology Spillovers

w15433 Maxim Pinkovskiy
Xavier Sala-i-Martin

Parametric Estimations of the World Distribution of Income

w15432 Enrique G. Mendoza
Vincenzo Quadrini

Financial Globalization, Financial Crises and Contagion

w15428 Diego A. Comin
Norman Loayza
Farooq Pasha
Luis Serven

Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries

w15427 Peter Howitt
Ömer Özak

Adaptive Consumption Behavior

w15421 Claudia R. Sahm
Matthew D. Shapiro
Joel B. Slemrod

Household Response to the 2008 Tax Rebate: Survey Evidence and Aggregate Implications

w15416 Berthold Herrendorf
Richard Rogerson
Ákos Valentinyi

Two Perspectives on Preferences and Structural Transformation

w15414 Ricardo Lagos
Guillaume Rocheteau
Pierre-Olivier Weill

Crises and Liquidity in Over-the-Counter Markets

w15409 Hernán D. Rozenfeld
Diego Rybski
Xavier Gabaix
Hernán A. Makse

The Area and Population of Cities: New Insights from a Different Perspective on Cities

w15407 Alan J. Auerbach
William G. Gale

Activist Fiscal Policy to Stabilize Economic Activity

w15405 Stavros Panageas
Optimal taxation in the presence of bailouts

w15404 Ravi Jagannathan
Mudit Kapoor
Ernst Schaumburg

Why are we in a recession? The Financial Crisis is the Symptom not the Disease!

w15400 Daron Acemoglu
Mikhail Golosov
Aleh Tsyvinski

Power Fluctuations and Political Economy

w15399 François Gourio
Disasters Risk and Business Cycles

w15394 Lawrence Christiano
Martin Eichenbaum
Sergio Rebelo

When is the government spending multiplier large?

w15385 Lars E.O. Svensson
Evaluating Monetary Policy

w15382 Yi-Li Chien
Harold L. Cole
Hanno Lustig

Is the Volatility of the Market Price of Risk due to Intermittent Portfolio Re-balancing?

w15377 Edward L. Glaeser
William R. Kerr
Giacomo A.M. Ponzetto

Clusters of Entrepreneurship

w15375 José-Víctor Ríos-Rull
Frank Schorfheide
Cristina Fuentes-Albero
Maxym Kryshko
Raül Santaeulŕlia-Llopis

Methods versus Substance: Measuring the Effects of Technology Shocks on Hours

w15373 Robert S. Pindyck
Neng Wang

The Economic and Policy Consequences of Catastrophes

w15369 Robert J. Barro
Charles J. Redlick

Macroeconomic Effects from Government Purchases and Taxes

w15368 Adi Brender
Allan Drazen

Do Leaders Affect Government Spending Priorities?

w15362 Amir E. Khandani
Andrew W. Lo
Robert C. Merton

Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect

w15359 Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

Lost in Transit: Product Replacement Bias and Pricing to Market

w15356 Stelios Michalopoulos
Luc Laeven
Ross Levine

Financial Innovation and Endogenous Growth

w15355 Raquel Fernández
Women's Rights and Development

w15351 Robert J. Gordon
Misperceptions About the Magnitude and Timing of Changes in American Income Inequality

w15349 Klaus Desmet
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Spatial Development

w15348 John C. Haltiwanger
Ron S. Jarmin
C. J. Krizan

Mom-and-Pop Meet Big-Box: Complements or Substitutes?

w15343 Mathias Trabandt
Harald Uhlig

How Far Are We From The Slippery Slope? The Laffer Curve Revisited

w15340 Nicolae B. Gârleanu
Stavros Panageas
Jianfeng Yu

Technological Growth and Asset Pricing

w15338 Urban Jermann
Vincenzo Quadrini

Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks

w15334 William N. Goetzmann
Liang Peng
Jacqueline Yen

The Subprime Crisis and House Price Appreciation

w15324 Alex Edmans
Xavier Gabaix
Tomasz Sadzik
Yuliy Sannikov

Dynamic Incentive Accounts

w15319 Diego A. Comin
Bart Hobijn

The CHAT Dataset

w15312 Robert B. Barsky
Eric R. Sims

News Shocks

w15302 Daron Acemoglu
Mikhail Golosov
Aleh Tsyvinski

Political Economy of Ramsey Taxation

w15299 Shawn Kantor
Alexander Whalley

Do Universities Generate Agglomeration Spillovers? Evidence from Endowment Value Shocks

w15296 Kenneth Judd
Lilia Maliar
Serguei Maliar

Numerically Stable Stochastic Simulation Approaches for Solving Dynamic Economic Models

w15290 Martin S. Feldstein
Economic Conditions and U.S. National Security in the 1930s and Today

w15258 Lee E. Ohanian
What - or Who - Started the Great Depression?

w15287 Alan S. Blinder
Alan B. Krueger

Alternative Measures of Offshorability: A Survey Approach

w15286 Xavier Gabaix
The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations

w15283 Atif R. Mian
Amir Sufi

House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the U.S. Household Leverage Crisis

w15282 Per Krusell
Toshihiko Mukoyama
Aysegul Sahin

Labor-Market Matching with Precautionary Savings and Aggregate Fluctuations

w15281 Casey B. Mulligan
Means-Tested Mortgage Modification: Homes Saved or Income Destroyed?

w15275 Asli Demirguc-Kunt
Ross Levine

Finance and Inequality: Theory and Evidence

w15273 Gary B. Gorton
Andrew Metrick

Haircuts

w15269 Eric M. Leeper
Anchoring Fiscal Expectations

w15268 Francisco J. Buera
Yongseok Shin

Productivity Growth and Capital Flows: The Dynamics of Reforms

w15257 Jonathan Heathcote
Kjetil Storesletten
Giovanni L. Violante

Consumption and Labor Supply with Partial Insurance: An Analytical Framework

w15255 Emi Nakamura
Dawit Zerom

Accounting for Incomplete Pass-Through

w15252 Per Krusell
Toshihiko Mukoyama
Richard Rogerson
Aysegul Sahin

Aggregate Labor Market Outcomes: The Role of Choice and Chance

w15251 Per Krusell
Toshihiko Mukoyama
Richard Rogerson
Aysegul Sahin

A Three State Model of Worker Flows in General Equilibrium

w15247 Robert J. Barro
Tao Jin

On the Size Distribution of Macroeconomic Disasters

w15243 Fatih Guvenen
A Parsimonious Macroeconomic Model for Asset Pricing

w15240 David Backus
Mikhail Chernov
Ian Martin

Disasters implied by equity index options

w15234 Bennett T. McCallum
Causality, Structure, and the Uniqueness of Rational Expectations Equilibria

w15230 Daron Acemoglu
Georgy Egorov
Konstantin Sonin

Political Selection and Persistence of Bad Governments

w15227 Yosef Bonaparte
Russell Cooper

Costly Portfolio Adjustment

w15225 Craig Burnside
Alexandra Tabova

Risk, Volatility, and the Global Cross-Section of Growth Rates

w15223 Gary B. Gorton
Andrew Metrick

Securitized Banking and the Run on Repo

w15219 Long Chen
Lu Zhang

The stock market and aggregate employment

w15208 David H. Romer
A New Data Set on Monetary Policy: The Economic Forecasts of Individual Members of the FOMC

w15204 Peter Blair Henry
Diego Sasson

Capital Market Integration and Wages

w15199 J. Vernon Henderson
Adam Storeygard
David N. Weil

Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space

w15194 Mark Aguiar
Manuel Amador

Growth in the Shadow of Expropriation

w15193 Cristina Arellano
Yan Bai
Jing Zhang

Firm Dynamics and Financial Development

w15192 Gian Luca Clementi
Thomas F. Cooley
Sonia Di Giannatale

A Theory of Firm Decline

w15187 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Serena Ng

Estimation of DSGE Models When the Data are Persistent

w15182 Miles S. Kimball
Colter M. Mitchell
Arland D. Thornton
Linda C. Young-Demarco

Empirics on the Origins of Preferences: The Case of College Major and Religiosity

w15176 Russell Cooper
Hubert Kempf
Dan Peled

Insulation Impossible: Fiscal Spillovers in a Monetary Union

w15170 John Geanakoplos
Stephen P. Zeldes

Market Valuation of Accrued Social Security Benefits

w15167 Philippe Aghion
Drew Fudenberg
Richard T. Holden

Subgame Perfect Implementation with Almost Perfect Information and the Hold-Up Problem

w15166 Mark Bils
Yongsung Chang
Sun-Bin Kim

Heterogeneity and Cyclical Unemployment

w15165 John B. Donaldson
Natalia Gershun
Marc P. Giannoni

Some Unpleasant General Equilibrium Implications of Executive Incentive Compensation Contracts

w15160 Eric M. Leeper
Michael Plante
Nora Traum

Dynamics of Fiscal Financing in the United States

w15159 Manuel Adelino
Kristopher Gerardi
Paul S. Willen

Why Don't Lenders Renegotiate More Home Mortgages? Redefaults, Self-Cures and Securitization

w15158 Nuno Cassola
Ali Hortacsu
Jakub Kastl

The 2007 Subprime Market Crisis Through the Lens of European Central Bank Auctions for Short-Term Funds

w15087 Orazio Attanasio
Katja Kaufmann

Educational Choices, Subjective Expectations, and Credit Constraints

w15155 Daron Acemoglu
Melissa Dell

Productivity Differences Between and Within Countries

w15153 Eric M. Leeper
Todd B. Walker
Shu-Chun Susan Yang

Government Investment and Fiscal Stimulus in the Short and Long Runs

w15138 Emmanuel Farhi
Jean Tirole

Collective Moral Hazard, Maturity Mismatch and Systemic Bailouts

w15133 Troy Davig
Eric M. Leeper

Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions and Fiscal Stimulus

w15129 Nicholas Bloom
Raffaella Sadun
John Van Reenen

The organization of firms across countries

w15119 Philippe Aghion
David Hemous
Enisse Kharroubi

Credit Constraints, Cyclical Fiscal Policy and Industry Growth

w15117 Michael W. L. Elsby
Matthew D. Shapiro

Stepping Off the Wage Escalator: The Effects of Wage Growth on Equilibrium Employment

w15113 James Feyrer
Jay C. Shambaugh

Global Savings and Global Investment: The Transmission of Identified Fiscal Shocks

w15111 Roozbeh Hosseini
Larry E. Jones
Ali Shourideh

Risk Sharing, Inequality and Fertility

w15110 Paul Beaudry
Amartya Lahiri

Risk Allocation, Debt Fueled Expansion and Financial Crisis

w15094 Charles I. Jones
Paul M. Romer

The New Kaldor Facts: Ideas, Institutions, Population, and Human Capital

w15080 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Klara Sabirianova Peter
Dmitriy Stolyarov

Inequality and Volatility Moderation in Russia: Evidence from Micro-Level Panel Data on Consumption and Income

w15075 Charles Calomiris
Stanley D. Longhofer
William Miles

The (Mythical?) Housing Wealth Effect

w15072 Harald Uhlig
A Model of a Systemic Bank Run

w15068 Frank R. Lichtenberg
The Quality of Medical Care, Behavioral Risk Factors, and Longevity Growth

w15066 Eric A. Hanushek
Ludger Woessmann

Schooling, Cognitive Skills, and the Latin American Growth Puzzle

w15065 William A. Brock
Steven N. Durlauf

Adoption Curves and Social Interactions

w15063 Christopher Foote
Kristopher Gerardi
Lorenz Goette
Paul Willen

Reducing Foreclosures: No Easy Answers

w15050 Matthias Doepke
Fabrizio Zilibotti

Do International Labor Standards Contribute to the Persistence of the Child Labor Problem?

w15062 Emmanuel Farhi
Samuel Paul Fraiberger
Xavier Gabaix
Romain Ranciere
Adrien Verdelhan

Crash Risk in Currency Markets

w15059 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Dirk Krueger
Mathias Sommer

Inequality Trends for Germany in the Last Two Decades: A Tale of Two Countries

w15052 Robert B. Barsky
The Japanese Bubble: A 'Heterogeneous' Approach

w15049 Robert B. Barsky
Eric R. Sims

Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence

w15044 Francois Gourio
Jianjun Miao

Firm Heterogeneity and the Long-run Effects of Dividend Tax Reform

w15034 Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Elias Papaioannou
José-Luis Peydró

What Lies Beneath the Euro's Effect on Financial Integration: Currency Risk, Legal Harmonization, or Trade?

w15033 Dale T. Mortensen
Wage Dispersion in the Search and Matching Model with Intra-Firm Bargaining

w15030 Mark Bils
Yongsung Chang
Sun-Bin Kim

Comparative Advantage and Unemployment

w15029 Diego A. Comin
Mark Gertler
Ana Maria Santacreu

Technology Innovation and Diffusion as Sources of Output and Asset Price Fluctuations

w15026 Dario Caldara
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez
Wen Yao

Computing DSGE Models with Recursive Preferences

w15025 Roger Farmer
Carine Nourry
Alain Venditti

Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons: The Stochastic Case

w15021 Roger E. A. Farmer
Fiscal Policy Can Reduce Unemployment: But There is a Less Costly and More Effective Alternative

w15015 Olivier J. Blanchard
Jean-Paul L'Huillier
Guido Lorenzoni

News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration

w15011 Bulent Guler
Fatih Guvenen
Giovanni L. Violante

Joint-Search Theory: New Opportunities and New Frictions

w15010 Andrew B. Abel
Janice C. Eberly
Stavros Panageas

Optimal Inattention to the Stock Market with Information Costs and Transactions Costs

w15003 George-Marios Angeletos
Jennifer La'O

Incomplete Information, Higher-Order Beliefs and Price Inertia

w15002 James D. Hamilton
Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08

w14997 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

Complexity and Financial Panics

w14996 Harald Uhlig
Monetary policy in Europe vs the US: what explains the difference?

w14982 George-Marios Angeletos
Jennifer La'O

Noisy Business Cycles

w14969 Betsey Stevenson
Justin Wolfers

The Paradox of Declining Female Happiness

w14960 Boyan Jovanovic
Peter L. Rousseau

Extensive and Intensive Investment over the Business Cycle

w14950 Paul Beaudry
Bernd Lucke

Letting Different Views about Business Cycles Compete

w14943 Andrei Shleifer
Robert W. Vishny

Unstable Banking

w14938 Gita Gopinath
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Chang-Tai Hsieh
Nicholas Li

Estimating the Border Effect: Some New Evidence

w14935 Marcela Eslava
John C. Haltiwanger
Adriana D. Kugler
Maurice Kugler

Trade Reforms and Market Selection: Evidence from Manufacturing Plants in Colombia

w14933 Julio J. Rotemberg
Altruistic Dynamic Pricing with Customer Regret

w14929 Thomas Philippon
Philipp Schnabl

Efficient Recapitalization

w14925 Douglas W. Diamond
Raghuram G. Rajan

Fear of Fire Sales and the Credit Freeze

w14923 Chang-Tai Hsieh
Edward Miguel
Daniel Ortega
Francisco Rodriguez

The Price of Political Opposition: Evidence from Venezuela's Maisanta

w14919 Troy Davig
Eric M. Leeper

Reply to "Generalizing the Taylor Principle: A Comment"

w14915 Veronica Guerrieri
Robert Shimer
Randall Wright

Adverse Selection in Competitive Search Equilibrium

w14914 Francisco J. Buera
Joseph Kaboski
Yongseok Shin

Finance and Development: A Tale of Two Sectors

w14910 James Feyrer
Trade and Income -- Exploiting Time Series in Geography

w14905 Guido Menzio
Shouyong Shi

Efficient Search on the Job and the Business Cycle

w14902 Stefan Laséen
Lars E.O. Svensson

Anticipated Alternative Instrument-Rate Paths in Policy Simulations

w14901 Hamish Low
Costas Meghir
Luigi Pistaferri

Wage Risk and Employment Risk over the Life Cycle

w14898 Veronica Guerrieri
Péter Kondor

Fund Managers, Career Concerns, and Asset Price Volatility

w14887 Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Elias Papaioannou
José Luis Peydró

Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization

w14883 Andrew Atkeson
V. V. Chari
Patrick Kehoe

Sophisticated Monetary Policies

w14882 Hyungsik Roger Moon
Frank Schorfheide

Bayesian and Frequentist Inference in Partially Identified Models

w14875 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana
Juan Rubio-Ramírez
Martín Uribe

Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks

w14874 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Enrique G. Mendoza
Linda L. Tesar

The Finnish Great Depression: From Russia with Love

w14873 Stefania Albanesi
Claudia Olivetti

Gender Roles and Medical Progress

w14872 Frank Schorfheide
Keith Sill
Maxym Kryshko

DSGE Model-Based Forecasting of Non-modelled Variables

w14870 S. Boragan Aruoba
Frank Schorfheide

Sticky Prices Versus Monetary Frictions: An Estimation of Policy Trade-offs

w14862 Marvin Goodfriend
Robert G. King

The Great Inflation Drift

w14850 Kaivan Munshi
Mark Rosenzweig

Why is Mobility in India so Low? Social Insurance, Inequality, and Growth

w14848 Hui Chen
Jianjun Miao
Neng Wang

Entrepreneurial Finance and Non-diversifiable Risk

w14846 Roger E.A. Farmer
Confidence, Crashes and Animal Spirits

w14845 Patrick Bolton
Hui Chen
Neng Wang

A Unified Theory of Tobin's q, Corporate Investment, Financing, and Risk Management

w14833 Francesc Ortega
Giovanni Peri

The Causes and Effects of International Migrations: Evidence from OECD Countries 1980-2005

w14824 Pierpaolo Benigno
New-Keynesian Economics: An AS-AD View

w14822 Francisco J. Buera
Joseph P. Kaboski

The Rise of the Service Economy

w14819 Fiona Murray
Philippe Aghion
Mathias Dewatripont
Julian Kolev
Scott Stern

Of Mice and Academics: Examining the Effect of Openness on Innovation

w14818 Laurence M. Ball
Hysteresis in Unemployment: Old and New Evidence

w14816 Maurice Obstfeld
Time of Troubles: The Yen and Japan's Economy, 1985-2008

w14805 Katharine G. Abraham
John C. Haltiwanger
Kristin Sandusky
James Spletzer

Exploring Differences in Employment between Household and Establishment Data

w14787 Mark Bils
Peter J. Klenow
Benjamin A. Malin

Reset Price Inflation and the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks

w14782 John F. Cogan
Tobias Cwik
John B. Taylor
Volker Wieland

New Keynesian versus Old Keynesian Government Spending Multipliers

w14772 Lars Ljungqvist
Harald Uhlig

Optimal Endowment Destruction under Campbell-Cochrane Habit Formation

w14770 Jess Benhabib
A Note on Regime Switching, Monetary Policy, and Multiple Equilibria

w14768 Jonathan Heathcote
Kjetil Storesletten
Giovanni L. Violante

Quantitative Macroeconomics with Heterogeneous Households

w14764 Roland Bénabou
Groupthink: Collective Delusions in Organizations and Markets

w14760 Robert J. Barro
José F. Ursúa

Stock-Market Crashes and Depressions

w14754 Miles S. Kimball
Claudia R. Sahm
Matthew D. Shapiro

Risk Preferences in the PSID: Individual Imputations and Family Covariation

w14753 Matthew D. Shapiro
Joel B. Slemrod

Did the 2008 Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending?

w14744 Daron Acemoglu
Amy Finkelstein
Matthew J. Notowidigdo

Income and Health Spending: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks

w14743 Joseph G. Altonji
Anthony Smith
Ivan Vidangos

Modeling Earnings Dynamics

w14740 Giuseppe Moscarini
Fabien Postel-Vinay

Large Employers Are More Cyclically Sensitive

w14732 Ricardo Reis
A Sticky-Information General-Equilibrium Model for Policy Analysis

w14730 Jess Benhabib
Alberto Bisin

The distribution of wealth and fiscal policy in economies with finitely lived agents

w14729 Casey Mulligan
What Caused the Recession of 2008? Hints from Labor Productivity

w14710 Roger E.A. Farmer
Tao Zha
Daniel F. Waggoner

Understanding Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models

w14691 Maurice Obstfeld
International Finance and Growth in Developing Countries: What Have We Learned?

w14697 Nir Jaimovich
Seth Pruitt
Henry E. Siu

The Demand for Youth: Implications for the Hours Volatility Puzzle

w14690 Angus S. Deaton
Instruments of development: Randomization in the tropics, and the search for the elusive keys to economic development

w14688 Ricardo J. Caballero
Arvind Krishnamurthy

Global Imbalances and Financial Fragility

w14684 Martin S. Feldstein
Rethinking the Role of Fiscal Policy

w14680 Melissa Dell
Benjamin F. Jones
Benjamin A. Olken

Temperature and Income: Reconciling New Cross-Sectional and Panel Estimates

w14678 Frederic S. Mishkin
Is Monetary Policy Effective During Financial Crises?

w14677 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
The Econometrics of DSGE Models

w14676 Michael Burda
Daniel S. Hamermesh

Unemployment, Market Work and Household Production

w14674 Jaap H. Abbring
Jeffrey R. Campbell

Last-In First-Out Oligopoly Dynamics

w14669 Monika Piazzesi
Martin Schneider

Momentum traders in the housing market: survey evidence and a search model

w14665 Jonathan A. Parker
Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

Who Bears Aggregate Fluctuations and How?

w14663 Michael G. Palumbo
Jonathan A. Parker

The Integrated Financial and Real System of National Accounts for the United States: Does It Presage the Financial Crisis?

w14661 Hanno Lustig
Chad Syverson
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Technological Change and the Growing Inequality in Managerial Compensation

w14630 Eric M. Leeper
Todd B. Walker
Shu-Chun Susan Yang

Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows

w14644 Thomas Philippon
Ariell Reshef

Wages and Human Capital in the U.S. Financial Industry: 1909-2006

w14639 Charles Yuji Horioka
Do Bequests Increase or Decrease Wealth Inequalities?

w14638 William D. Nordhaus
The Perils of the Learning Model For Modeling Endogenous Technological Change

w14636 Indrit Hoxha
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Dietrich Vollrath

How Big are the Gains from International Financial Integration?

w14633 Eric A. Hanushek
Ludger Woessmann

Do Better Schools Lead to More Growth? Cognitive Skills, Economic Outcomes, and Causation

w14631 John B. Taylor
The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong


2008
w14629 Bernard Dumas
Andrew Lyasoff

Incomplete-Market Equilibria Solved Recursively on an Event Tree

w14621 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation

w14620 Michael Woodford
Information-Constrained State-Dependent Pricing

w14617 Michael Elsby
Bart Hobijn
Aysegul Sahin

Unemployment Dynamics in the OECD

w14612 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-08

w14605 Andrew Caplin
John Leahy

Trading Frictions and House Price Dynamics

w14604 Peter Blair Henry
Conrad Miller

Institutions vs. Policies: A Tale of Two Islands

w14595 Francisco J. Buera
Alexander Monge-Naranjo
Giorgio E. Primiceri

Learning the Wealth of Nations

w14586 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us About Informational Rigidities?

w14584 Tommaso Monacelli
Roberto Perotti

Fiscal Policy, Wealth Effects, and Markups

w14581 Robert E. Hall
Equity Depletion from Government-Guaranteed Debt

w14563 Alan S. Blinder
Jeremy B. Rudd

The Supply-Shock Explanation of the Great Stagflation Revisited

w14560 Robert J. Gordon
Did Economics Cause World War II?

w14558 M. Ayhan Kose
Eswar S. Prasad
Marco E. Terrones

Does Openness to International Financial Flows Raise Productivity Growth?

w14554 Gene M. Grossman
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Task Trade between Similar Countries

w14553 Harald Uhlig
The Slow Decline of East Germany

w14551 Andrew Mountford
Harald Uhlig

What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?

w14547 Alejandro Justiniano
Bruce Preston

Can Structural Small Open Economy Models Account for the Influence of Foreign Disturbances?

w14534 Bennett T. McCallum
Inflation Determination with Taylor Rules: Is New Keynesian Analysis Critically Flawed?

w14529 Domenico Giannone
Michele Lenza
Lucrezia Reichlin

Business Cycles in the Euro Area

w14521 Ricardo J. Caballero
Emmanuel Farhi
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

Financial Crash, Commodity Prices and Global Imbalances

w14520 Rafael La Porta
Andrei Shleifer

The Unofficial Economy and Economic Development

w14514 Casey B. Mulligan
A Depressing Scenario: Mortgage Debt Becomes Unemployment Insurance

w14510 Malin Adolfson
Stefan Laséen
Jesper Lindé
Lars E.O. Svensson

Monetary Policy Trade-Offs in an Estimated Open-Economy DSGE Model

w14509 Diego A. Comin
An Exploration of the Japanese Slowdown during the 1990s

w14499 Angus Deaton
Alan Heston

Understanding PPPs and PPP-based national accounts

w14480 Harold L. Cole
Self-Enforcing Stochastic Monitoring and the Separation of Debt and Equity Claims

w14473 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Stefan Nagel
Lasse H. Pedersen

Carry Trades and Currency Crashes

w14463 Jens H.E. Christensen
Francis X. Diebold
Glenn D. Rudebusch

An Arbitrage-Free Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model

w14452 Chris Edmond
Laura Veldkamp

Income Dispersion and Counter-Cyclical Markups

w14449 Quamrul H. Ashraf
Ashley Lester
David N. Weil

When Does Improving Health Raise GDP?

w14448 Louis Putterman
David N. Weil

Post-1500 Population Flows and the Long Run Determinants of Economic Growth and Inequality

w14446 Casey Mulligan
Luke Threinen

Market Responses to the Panic of 2008

w14437 Caroline M. Betts
Timothy J. Kehoe

Real Exchange Rate Movements and the Relative Price of Non-traded Goods

w14430 V. V. Chari
Patrick J. Kehoe
Ellen R. McGrattan

Are Structural VARs with Long-Run Restrictions Useful in Developing Business Cycle Theory?

w14425 Gene M. Grossman
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

External Economies and International Trade Redux

w14403 Raj Chetty
Emmanuel Saez

Optimal Taxation and Social Insurance with Endogenous Private Insurance

w14402 Christopher L. House
Fixed Costs and Long-Lived Investments

w14401 Takeo Hoshi
Anil K Kashyap

Will the U.S. Bank Recapitalization Succeed? Eight Lessons from Japan

w14400 Richard Rogerson
Market Work, Home Work and Taxes: A Cross Country Analysis

w14399 Raj Chetty
Sufficient Statistics for Welfare Analysis: A Bridge Between Structural and Reduced-Form Methods

w14398 Gary B. Gorton
The Subprime Panic

w14395 Timothy J. Kehoe
Kim J. Ruhl

Sudden Stops, Sectoral Reallocations, and the Real Exchange Rate

w14392 Patrick J. Kehoe
Virgiliu Midrigan

Temporary Price Changes and the Real Effects of Monetary Policy

w14391 Stefano Eusepi
Bruce Preston

Stabilizing Expectations under Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination

w14389 Andrew T. Foerster
Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte
Mark W. Watson

Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production

w14386 Jessica Wachter
Can Time-Varying Risk of Rare Disasters Explain Aggregate Stock Market Volatility?

w14383 Florin O. Bilbiie
Fabio Ghironi
Marc J. Melitz

Monopoly Power and Endogenous Product Variety: Distortions and Remedies

w14362 Marc D. Weidenmier
Joseph H. Davis
Roger Aliaga-Diaz

Is Sugar Sweeter at the Pump? The Macroeconomic Impact of Brazil's Alternative Energy Program

w14292 M. Ayhan Kose
Christopher Otrok
Eswar S. Prasad

Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?

w14369 Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
Pierre-Daniel Sarte
Raymond Owens III

Housing Externalities

w14363 William Easterly
Can the West Save Africa?

w14358 Gary B. Gorton
The Panic of 2007

w14357 William A. Brock
Steven N. Durlauf
Giacomo Rondina

Design Limits and Dynamic Policy Analysis

w14351 Rajnish Mehra
Facundo Piguillem
Edward C. Prescott

Intermediated Quantities and Returns

w14349 S. Boragan Aruoba
Francis X. Diebold
Chiara Scotti

Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions

w14345 Mohammad Arzaghi
Ernst R. Berndt
James C. Davis
Alvin J. Silk

Economic Factors Underlying the Unbundling of Advertising Agency Services

w14342 Dongmei Li
Lu Zhang

Costly External Finance: Implications for Capital Markets Anomalies

w14335 Kaivan Munshi
Mark Rosenzweig

The Efficacy of Parochial Politics: Caste, Commitment, and Competence in Indian Local Governments

w14329 Robert E. Hall
Alan B. Krueger

Wage Formation between Newly Hired Workers and Employers: Survey Evidence

w14323 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Strategic Interaction Among Heterogeneous Price-Setters In An Estimated DSGE Model

w14322 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts

w14313 V.V. Chari
Patrick J. Kehoe
Ellen R. McGrattan

New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis

w14300 Steven J. Davis
R. Jason Faberman
John Haltiwanger
Ron Jarmin
Javier Miranda

Business Volatility, Job Destruction, and Unemployment

w14299 Xavier Gabaix
Power Laws in Economics and Finance

w14294 Charles W. Calomiris
Stanley D. Longhofer
William Miles

The Foreclosure-House Price Nexus: Lessons from the 2007-2008 Housing Turmoil

w14282 Betsey Stevenson
Justin Wolfers

Economic Growth and Subjective Well-Being: Reassessing the Easterlin Paradox

w14269 Francis X. Diebold
Kamil Yilmaz

Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Market Volatility, Worldwide

w14266 Larry E. Jones
Alice Schoonbroodt
Michčle Tertilt

Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility-Income Relationship?

w14264 Antoni Estevadeordal
Alan M. Taylor

Is the Washington Consensus Dead? Growth, Openness, and the Great Liberalization, 1970s-2000s

w14262 Pol Antrŕs
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Organizations and Trade

w14260 Andrew Atkeson
Patrick J. Kehoe

On the Need for a New Approach to Analyzing Monetary Policy

w14259 Olivier J. Blanchard
The State of Macro

w14255 Manuel Amador
Pierre-Olivier Weill

Learning from Prices: Public Communication and Welfare

w14248 Chinhui Juhn
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Belgi Turan

HIV and Fertility in Africa: First Evidence from Population Based Surveys

w14243 Lars Peter Hansen
Modeling the Long Run: Valuation in Dynamic Stochastic Economies

w14239 Daron Acemoglu
Georgy Egorov
Konstantin Sonin

Dynamics and Stability of Constitutions, Coalitions, and Clubs

w14228 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Filippos Papakonstantinou
Jonathan A. Parker

An Economic Model of the Planning Fallacy

w14223 James D. Hamilton
Daily Monetary Policy Shocks and the Delayed Response of New Home Sales

w14222 Julio J. Rotemberg
Liquidity Needs in Economies with Interconnected Financial Obligations

w14221 Edward E. Leamer
What's a Recession, Anyway?

w14219 Robert E. Hall
Susan E. Woodward

The Burden of the Nondiversifiable Risk of Entrepreneurship

w14215 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe
Martin Uribe

What's News in Business Cycles

w14208 Miles S. Kimball
Matthew D. Shapiro

Labor Supply: Are the Income and Substitution Effects Both Large or Both Small?

w14200 Gita Gopinath
Oleg Itskhoki

Frequency of Price Adjustment and Pass-through

w14190 Jean Boivin
Marc P. Giannoni
Benoît Mojon

How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission?

w14184 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Endogenous information, menu costs and inflation persistence

w14181 Stefano Eusepi
Bruce Preston

Expectations, Learning and Business Cycle Fluctuations

w14171 Jordi Gali
Luca Gambetti

On the Sources of the Great Moderation

w14164 Bennett T. McCallum
Determinacy, Learnability, and Plausibility in Monetary Policy Analysis: Additional Results

w14163 Bennett T. McCallum
Reconsideration of the P-Bar Model of Gradual Price Adjustment

w14151 James D. Hamilton
Macroeconomics and ARCH

w14138 Benjamin F. Jones
The Knowledge Trap: Human Capital and Development Reconsidered

w14137 Steven J. Davis
R. Jason Faberman
John C. Haltiwanger
Ian Rucker

Adjusted Estimates of Worker Flows and Job Openings in JOLTS

w14135 Fernando E. Alvarez
Francisco J. Buera
Robert E. Lucas
Jr.

Models of Idea Flows

w14133 Robert E. Lucas
Jr.

Ideas and Growth

w14132 Melissa Dell
Benjamin F. Jones
Benjamin A. Olken

Climate Change and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century

w14130 David Y. Albouy
The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Investigation of the Settler Mortality Data

w14128 Jess Benhabib
Shenghao Zhu

Age, Luck, and Inheritance

w14122 Elhanan Helpman
Oleg Itskhoki
Stephen Redding

Wages, Unemployment and Inequality with Heterogeneous Firms and Workers

w14114 Bruce Sacerdote
James Feyrer

Will the Stork Return to Europe and Japan? Understanding Fertility Within Developed Nations

w14112 Domenico Delli Gatti
Mauro Gallegati
Bruce C. Greenwald
Alberto Russo
Joseph E. Stiglitz

Financially Constrained Fluctuations in an Evolving Network Economy

w14097 Alessandra Fogli
Laura Veldkamp

Nature or Nurture? Learning and the Geography of Female Labor Force Participation

w14093 Ryan D. Edwards
The Cost of Uncertain Life Span

w14092 Malin Adolfson
Stefan Laseen
Jesper Linde
Lars E.O. Svensson

Optimal Monetary Policy in an Operational Medium-Sized DSGE Model

w14063 Nir Jaimovich
Henry E. Siu

The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility

w14060 Laura Alfaro
Andrew Charlton
Fabio Kanczuk

Plant-Size Distribution and Cross-Country Income Differences

w14054 A. Craig Burnside
Martin S. Eichenbaum
Isaac Kleshchelski
Sergio Rebelo

Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?

w14052 Jonathan Heathcote
Kjetil Storesletten
Giovanni L. Violante

The Macroeconomic Implications of Rising Wage Inequality in the United States

w14050 Dani Rodrik
Second-Best Institutions

w14048 Steven J. Davis
James A. Kahn

Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels

w14047 Marco Battaglini
Stephen Coate

Fiscal Policy over the Real Business Cycle: A Positive Theory

w14028 Eric M. Leeper
Todd B. Walker
Shu-Chun Susan Yang

Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics

w14019 Michael D. Bordo
Michael J. Dueker
David C. Wheelock

Inflation, Monetary Policy and Stock Market Conditions

w14018 Erwin Diewert
Saeed Heravi
Mick Silver

Hedonic Imputation versus Time Dummy Hedonic Indexes

w14015 George-Marios Angeletos
Private Sunspots and Idiosyncratic Investor Sentiment

w14009 Frank R. Lichtenberg
Gautier Duflos

Pharmaceutical innovation and the longevity of Australians: a first look

w14001 Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

Monetary Non-Neutrality in a Multi-Sector Menu Cost Model

w14000 Boyan Jovanovic
When Should Firms Invest in Old Capital?

w13990 Aurora Gómez Galvarriato
Jeffrey G. Williamson

Was It Prices, Productivity or Policy? The Timing and Pace of Latin American Industrialization after 1870

w13986 Pierpaolo Benigno
Luca Antonio Ricci

The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-Off at Low Inflation

w13985 Valerie A. Ramey
Time Spent in Home Production in the 20th Century: New Estimates from Old Data

w13983 Ellen R. McGrattan
Edward C. Prescott

Technology Capital and the U.S. Current Account

w13982 Robert J. Gordon
Ian Dew-Becker

Controversies about the Rise of American Inequality: A Survey

w13979 John Geanakoplos
Stephen P. Zeldes

Reforming Social Security with Progressive Personal Accounts

w13970 Frederic S. Mishkin
Does Stabilizing Inflation Contribute To Stabilizing Economic Activity?

w13889 Frederic S. Mishkin
Exchange Rate Pass-Through And Monetary Policy

w13940 Robert J. Barro
José F. Ursúa

Macroeconomic Crises since 1870

w13968 Edward Miguel
Sebastián M. Saiegh
Shanker Satyanath

National Cultures and Soccer Violence

w13967 Raj Chetty
Moral Hazard vs. Liquidity and Optimal Unemployment Insurance

w13955 Emmanuel Farhi
Jean Tirole

Competing Liquidities: Corporate Securities, Real Bonds and Bubbles

w13953 Martin S. Feldstein
Did Wages Reflect Growth in Productivity?

w13950 Robert W. Dimand
Barbara J. Spencer

Trevor Swan And The Neoclassical Growth Model

w13948 Frederic S. Mishkin
Globalization, Macroeconomic Performance, and Monetary Policy

w13943 John B. Taylor
John C. Williams

A Black Swan in the Money Market

w13931 Orazio Attanasio
Adriana Kugler
Costas Meghir

Training Disadvantaged Youth in Latin America: Evidence from a Randomized Trial

w13924 Aleksander Berentsen
Guido Menzio
Randall Wright

Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run

w13920 John Haltiwanger
Stefano Scarpetta
Helena Schweiger

Assessing Job Flows Across Countries: The Role of Industry, Firm Size and Regulations

w13919 Matthias Doepke
Michčle Tertilt

Women's Liberation: What's in It for Men?

w13915 Daron Acemoglu
Davide Ticchi
Andrea Vindigni

A Theory of Military Dictatorships

w13912 Lance J. Lochner
Alexander Monge-Naranjo

The Nature of Credit Constraints and Human Capital

w13911 Francesco Giavazzi
Michael McMahon

Policy Uncertainty and Precautionary Savings

w13907 Roland Bénabou
Ideology

w13906 Andrea Ferrero
Mark Gertler
Lars E.O. Svensson

Current Account Dynamics and Monetary Policy

w13904 Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Laura Veldkamp

Information Acquisition and Under-Diversification

w13897 Olivier Blanchard
Jordi Gali

Labor Markets and Monetary Policy: A New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment

w13896 Hanno Lustig
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Adrien Verdelhan

The Wealth-Consumption Ratio

w13894 Noah Williams
Persistent Private Information

w13893 Mark Aguiar
Erik Hurst

Deconstructing Lifecycle Expenditure

w13892 Lars E.O. Svensson
Noah Williams

Optimal Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in DSGE Models: A Markov Jump-Linear-Quadratic Approach

w13880 Peter Blair Henry
Diego Sasson

Capital Account Liberalization, Real Wages, and Productivity

w13876 Christopher D. Carroll
Jiri Slacalek
Martin Sommer

International Evidence on Sticky Consumption Growth

w13872 Richard Rogerson
Lodewijk P. Visschers
Randall Wright

Labor Market Fluctuations in the Small and in the Large

w13871 Per Krusell
Toshihiko Mukoyama
Richard Rogerson
Aysegul Sahin

Aggregate Implications of Indivisible Labor, Incomplete Markets, and Labor Market Frictions

w13870 Trevon D. Logan
Are Engel Curve Estimates of CPI Bias Biased?

w13867 Melissa Bjelland
Bruce Fallick
John Haltiwanger
Erika McEntarfer

Employer-to-Employer Flows in the United States: Estimates Using Linked Employer-Employee Data

w13866 Janice Eberly
Sergio Rebelo
Nicolas Vincent

Investment and Value: A Neoclassical Benchmark

w13854 Yacine Aďt-Sahalia
Michael W. Brandt

Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Option-Implied State Prices

w13840 Ian Dew-Becker
Robert J. Gordon

The Role of Labor Market Changes in the Slowdown of European Productivity Growth

w13837 Mark Aguiar
Erik Hurst

The Increase in Leisure Inequality

w13834 Charles I. Jones
Intermediate Goods, Weak Links, and Superstars: A Theory of Economic Development

w13829 Martin Eichenbaum
Nir Jaimovich
Sergio Rebelo

Reference Prices and Nominal Rigidities

w13819 Giuseppe Moscarini
Francis G. Vella

Occupational Mobility and the Business Cycle

w13814 Charles Engel
Jian Wang

International Trade in Durable Goods: Understanding Volatility, Cyclicality, and Elasticities

w13805 Emmanuel Farhi
Xavier Gabaix

Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates

w13794 Cristina Arellano
Narayana R. Kocherlakota

Internal Debt Crises and Sovereign Defaults

w13789 Erik Hurst
The Retirement of a Consumption Puzzle

w13779 Ricardo J. Caballero
Pierre Yared

Inflating the Beast: Political Incentives Under Uncertainty

w13777 Michael W. L. Elsby
Ryan Michaels

Marginal Jobs, Heterogeneous Firms, & Unemployment Flows

w13772 Fernando Alvarez
Robert Shimer

Search and Rest Unemployment

w13769 J. Vernon Henderson
Anthony Venables

The Dynamics of City Formation

w13761 Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison

w13756 Simeon Djankov
Tim Ganser
Caralee McLiesh
Rita Ramalho
Andrei Shleifer

The Effect of Corporate Taxes on Investment and Entrepreneurship

w13755 Julio J. Rotemberg
Minimally Altruistic Wages and Unemployment in a Matching Model

w13751 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

The FOMC versus the Staff: Where Can Monetary Policymakers Add Value?

w13749 Timothy Cogley
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Thomas J. Sargent

Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S.

w13741 Marco Del Negro
Frank Schorfheide

Forming Priors for DSGE Models (and How it Affects the Assessment of Nominal Rigidities)

w13736 Jean Boivin
Marc Giannoni

Global Forces and Monetary Policy Effectiveness

w13731 Ariel Burstein
Christopher Kurz
Linda Tesar

Trade, Production Sharing, and the International Transmission of Business Cycles

w13724 Xavier Gabaix
Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance

w13720 Emmanuel Farhi
Iván Werning

Optimal Savings Distortions with Recursive Preferences


Generated Sat Nov 7 04:29:55 2009

 
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