NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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NBER Papers on Economic Fluctuations and Growth

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2019
w25571 Marcus Hagedorn
Iourii Manovskii
Kurt Mitman

The Fiscal Multiplier
w25563 George A. Alessandria
Horag Choi

The Dynamics of the U.S. Trade Balance and Real Exchange Rate: The J Curve and Trade Costs?
w25558 Daniel E. Sichel
Productivity Measurement: Racing to Keep Up
w25550 Marcela Eslava
John C. Haltiwanger
Alvaro Pinzón

Job creation in Colombia vs the U.S.: "up or out dynamics" meets "the life cycle of plants".
w25546 Daniel G. Garrett
Eric C. Ohrn
Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato

Tax Policy and Local Labor Market Behavior
w25540 Victor Stango
Jonathan Zinman

We are all Behavioral, More or Less: Measuring and Using Consumer-level Behavioral Sufficient Statistics
w25536 Robert J. Shiller
Narratives about Technology-Induced Job Degradations Then and Now
w25531 Valerie A. Ramey
Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?
w25529 Germán Gutiérrez
Thomas Philippon

Fading Stars
w25523 Timothy J. Kehoe
Carlos Gustavo Machicado
José Peres-Cajías

The Monetary and Fiscal History of Bolivia, 1960-2017
w25520 Eduardo Dávila
Benjamin M. Hébert

Optimal Corporate Taxation Under Financial Frictions
w25519 John B. Donaldson
Rajnish Mehra

Average Crossing Time: An Alternative Characterization of Mean Aversion and Reversion
w25515 Maryam Farboodi
Roxana Mihet
Thomas Philippon
Laura Veldkamp

Big Data and Firm Dynamics
w25511 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Mauricio Ulate

Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures
w25508 Robert J. Barro
Brian Wheaton

Taxes, Incorporation, and Productivity
w25505 Ernest Liu
Atif Mian
Amir Sufi

Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth
w25502 Anders Jensen
Employment Structure and the Rise of the Modern Tax System
w25498 Finn Kydland
Nick Pretnar

The Costs and Benefits of Caring: Aggregate Burdens of an Aging Population
w25496 Francesco D’Acunto
Daniel Hoang
Maritta Paloviita
Michael Weber

IQ, Expectations, and Choice
w25493 Alexander M. Bell
Raj Chetty
Xavier Jaravel
Neviana Petkova
John Van Reenen

Do Tax Cuts Produce More Einsteins? The Impacts of Financial Incentives vs. Exposure to Innovation on the Supply of Inventors
w25492 Simon Jäger
Benjamin Schoefer
Josef Zweimüller

Marginal Jobs and Job Surplus: A Test of the Efficiency of Separations
w25490 Guillaume Blanc
Romain Wacziarg

Change and Persistence in the Age of Modernization: Saint-Germain-d'Anxure 1730-1895
w25482 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

Monetary Policy Communications and their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations
w25478 Rava Azeredo da Silveira
Michael Woodford

Noisy Memory and Over-Reaction to News
w25477 Ana Babus
Kinda Cheryl Hachem

Markets for Financial Innovation
w25476 Jordi Galí
Luca Gambetti

Has the U.S. Wage Phillips Curve Flattened? A Semi-Structural Exploration
w25470 Ekaterina S. Jardim
Gary Solon
Jacob L. Vigdor

How Prevalent Is Downward Rigidity in Nominal Wages? Evidence from Payroll Records in Washington State
w25469 Emmanuel Farhi
Matteo Maggiori

China vs. U.S.: IMS Meets IPS
w25466 Steven J. Davis
John C. Haltiwanger

Dynamism Diminished: The Role of Housing Markets and Credit Conditions
w25465 Gabriel Ehrlich
John C. Haltiwanger
Ron S. Jarmin
David Johnson
Matthew D. Shapiro

Minding Your Ps and Qs: Going from Micro to Macro in Measuring Prices and Quantities
w25463 Marina Halac
Pierre Yared

Fiscal Rules and Discretion under Limited Enforcement
w25462 Gabriel Zucman
Global Wealth Inequality
w25459 Laura Alfaro
Gonzalo Asis
Anusha Chari
Ugo Panizza

Corporate Debt, Firm Size and Financial Fragility in Emerging Markets
w25458 Laura Alfaro
Manuel García-Santana
Enrique Moral-Benito

On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks
w25457 Alan J. Auerbach
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Daniel Murphy

Local Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Spillovers in the United States
w25452 Gary Gorton
Toomas Laarits
Tyler Muir

1930: First Modern Crisis
w25447 Jonathan I. Dingel
Kyle C. Meng
Solomon M. Hsiang

Spatial Correlation, Trade, and Inequality: Evidence from the Global Climate
w25445 Roger E.A. Farmer
Pawel Zabczyk

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level in Overlapping Generations Models
w25442 Matthew Smith
Danny Yagan
Owen M. Zidar
Eric Zwick

Capitalists in the Twenty-First Century
w25433 Eduardo Dávila
Cecilia Parlatore

Volatility and Informativeness
w25424 Dean Corbae
Pablo D'Erasmo

Capital Requirements in a Quantitative Model of Banking Industry Dynamics
w25421 Joao Ayres
Marcio Garcia
Diogo A. Guillén
Patrick J. Kehoe

The Monetary and Fiscal History of Brazil, 1960-2016
w25418 Gregor Jarosch
Ezra Oberfield
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Learning from Coworkers
w25417 Peter Ganong
Pascal J. Noel

Consumer Spending During Unemployment: Positive and Normative Implications
w25416 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Ragnar E. Juelsrud
Lawrence H. Summers
Ella Getz Wold

Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel
2018
w25412 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Tiziano Ropele

Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence
w25410 Matteo Maggiori
Brent Neiman
Jesse Schreger

The Rise of the Dollar and Fall of the Euro as International Currencies
w25404 George-Marios Angeletos
Karthik A. Sastry

Managing Expectations without Rational Expectations
w25393 Michael W. Elsby
Gary Solon

How Prevalent Is Downward Rigidity in Nominal Wages? International Evidence from Payroll Records and Pay Slips
w25386 Francesco Bianchi
Howard Kung
Mikhail Tirskikh

The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty
w25385 Pablo Kurlat
Deposit Spreads and the Welfare Cost of Inflation
w25382 Hugo Hopenhayn
Julian Neira
Rish Singhania

From Population Growth to Firm Demographics: Implications for Concentration, Entrepreneurship and the Labor Share
w25380 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Exchange Rates and Uncovered Interest Differentials: The Role of Permanent Monetary Shocks
w25376 Marco Bassetto
Zhen Huo
José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

Organizational Equilibrium with Capital
w25370 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Gita Gopinath
Prachi Mishra
Abhinav Narayanan

Cash and the Economy: Evidence from India's Demonetization
w25363 Daron Acemoglu
Martin Kaae Jensen

Equilibrium Analysis in the Behavioral Neoclassical Growth Model
w25350 Ross Levine
Yona Rubinstein

Selection into Entrepreneurship and Self-Employment
w25347 Christopher L. House
Christian Proebsting
Linda L. Tesar

Quantifying the Benefits of Labor Mobility in a Currency Union
w25340 Javier Bianchi
Jorge Mondragon

Monetary Independence and Rollover Crises
w25336 Itzhak Ben-David
Elyas Fermand
Camelia M. Kuhnen
Geng Li

Expectations Uncertainty and Household Economic Behavior
w25325 Xavier Giroud
Holger M. Mueller

Firm Leverage and Regional Business Cycles
w25321 Andrew Atkeson
Ariel Burstein
Manolis Chatzikonstantinou

Transitional Dynamics in Aggregate Models of Innovative Investment
w25317 Harjoat S. Bhamra
Christian Dorion
Alexandre Jeanneret
Michael Weber

Low Inflation: High Default Risk AND High Equity Valuations
w25311 Masao Fukui
Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

Women, Wealth Effects, and Slow Recoveries
w25303 Ernesto Pastén
Raphael Schoenle
Michael Weber

The Propagation of Monetary Policy Shocks in a Heterogeneous Production Economy
w25296 Wei Xiong
The Mandarin Model of Growth
w25294 Andreas I. Mueller
Johannes Spinnewijn
Giorgio Topa

Job Seekers' Perceptions and Employment Prospects: Heterogeneity, Duration Dependence and Bias
w25293 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

The Microeconomic Foundations of Aggregate Production Functions
w25289 Oded Galor
Ömer Özak
Assaf Sarid

Geographical Roots of the Coevolution of Cultural and Linguistic Traits
w25288 Kurt G. Lunsford
Kenneth D. West

Some Evidence on Secular Drivers of U.S. Safe Real Rates
w25285 Josue Cox
Sydney C. Ludvigson

Drivers of the Great Housing Boom-Bust: Credit Conditions, Beliefs, or Both?
w25282 Emmanuel Farhi
François Gourio

Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia
w25278 Stelios Michalopoulos
Elias Papaioannou

Historical Legacies and African Development
w25276 Riccardo Colacito
Mariano Max Croce
Yang Liu
Ivan Shaliastovich

Volatility Risk Pass-through
w25275 Matthias Kehrig
Nicolas Vincent

The Micro-Level Anatomy of the Labor Share Decline
w25273 Oded Galor
Viacheslav Savitskiy

Climatic Roots of Loss Aversion
w25269 John Ameriks
Gábor Kézdi
Minjoon Lee
Matthew D. Shapiro

Heterogeneity in Expectations, Risk Tolerance, and Household Stock Shares: The Attenuation Puzzle
w25266 Bryan Kelly
Dimitris Papanikolaou
Amit Seru
Matt Taddy

Measuring Technological Innovation over the Long Run
w25251 Robert E. Hall
Using Empirical Marginal Cost to Measure Market Power in the US Economy
w25242 Wen Chen
Bart Los
Marcel P. Timmer

Factor Incomes in Global Value Chains: The Role of Intangibles
w25236 Kory Kroft
Fabian Lange
Matthew J. Notowidigdo
Matthew Tudball

Long Time Out: Unemployment and Joblessness in Canada and the United States
w25230 Simon Jäger
Benjamin Schoefer
Samuel G. Young
Josef Zweimüller

Wages and the Value of Nonemployment
w25226 Emin Dinlersoz
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Henry Hyatt
Veronika Penciakova

Leverage over the Life Cycle and Implications for Firm Growth and Shock Responsiveness
w25222 Kaiji Chen
Tao Zha

Macroeconomic Effects of China's Financial Policies
w25220 Guillaume Rocheteau
Pierre-Olivier Weill
Tsz-Nga Wong

An Heterogeneous-Agent New-Monetarist Model with an Application to Unemployment
w25212 Scott R. Baker
Lorenz Kueng
Leslie McGranahan
Brian T. Melzer

Do Household Finances Constrain Unconventional Fiscal Policy?
w25210 Eduardo Dávila
Cecilia Parlatore

Identifying Price Informativeness
w25200 Daniel J. Benjamin
Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases
w25196 João Granja
Christian Leuz
Raghuram Rajan

Going the Extra Mile: Distant Lending and Credit Cycles
w25189 Solomon Hsiang
Robert E. Kopp

An Economist's Guide to Climate Change Science
w25188 David Byrne
Carol Corrado
Daniel E. Sichel

The Rise of Cloud Computing: Minding Your P's, Q's and K's
w25180 Jing Cynthia Wu
Fan Dora Xia

Negative Interest Rate Policy and the Yield Curve
w25179 Kyle Herkenhoff
Jeremy Lise
Guido Menzio
Gordon M. Phillips

Production and Learning in Teams
w25177 Hannah Druckenmiller
Solomon Hsiang

Accounting for Unobservable Heterogeneity in Cross Section Using Spatial First Differences
w25171 Ying Feng
David Lagakos
James E. Rauch

Unemployment and Development
w25170 Gabriel Garber
Atif Mian
Jacopo Ponticelli
Amir Sufi

Household Debt and Recession in Brazil
w25164 Dani Rodrik
New Technologies, Global Value Chains, and Developing Economies
w25157 David W. Berger
Konstantin Milbradt
Fabrice Tourre
Joseph Vavra

Mortgage Prepayment and Path-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy
w25152 Martin Eichenbaum
Sergio Rebelo
Arlene Wong

State Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy: the Refinancing Channel
w25148 Erik Brynjolfsson
Daniel Rock
Chad Syverson

The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies
w25147 Raj Chetty
John N. Friedman
Nathaniel Hendren
Maggie R. Jones
Sonya R. Porter

The Opportunity Atlas: Mapping the Childhood Roots of Social Mobility
w25136 Ufuk Akcigit
Salomé Baslandze
Francesca Lotti

Connecting to Power: Political Connections, Innovation, and Firm Dynamics
w25123 Eric T. Swanson
The Federal Reserve Is Not Very Constrained by the Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates
w25119 Michael Kremer
Christopher M. Snyder

Worst-Case Bounds on R&D and Pricing Distortions: Theory with an Application Assuming Consumer Values Follow the World Income Distribution
w25118 Andreas Kettemann
Andreas I. Mueller
Josef Zweimüller

Vacancy Durations and Entry Wages: Evidence from Linked Vacancy-Employer-Employee Data
w25108 Maarten Meeuwis
Jonathan A. Parker
Antoinette Schoar
Duncan I. Simester

Belief Disagreement and Portfolio Choice
w25106 Ricardo Lagos
Shengxing Zhang

Turnover Liquidity and the Transmission of Monetary Policy
w25103 Arnaud Costinot
Iván Werning

Robots, Trade, and Luddism: A Sufficient Statistic Approach to Optimal Technology Regulation
w25102 Laura Liu
Hyungsik Roger Moon
Frank Schorfheide

Forecasting with Dynamic Panel Data Models
w25089 Martín Uribe
The Neo-Fisher Effect: Econometric Evidence from Empirical and Optimizing Models
w25086 Brian Baugh
Itzhak Ben-David
Hoonsuk Park
Jonathan A. Parker

Asymmetric Consumption Response of Households to Positive and Negative Anticipated Cash Flows
w25085 Andrea L. Eisfeldt
Yu Shi

Capital Reallocation
w25082 Miguel Ampudia
Russell Cooper
Julia Le Blanc
Guozhong Zhu

MPC Heterogeneity in Europe: Sources and Policy Implications
w25081 Fabian Kindermann
Lukas Mayr
Dominik Sachs

Inheritance Taxation and Wealth Effects on the Labor Supply of Heirs
w25078 Scott R. Baker
Lorenz Kueng
Steffen Meyer
Michaela Pagel

Measurement Error in Imputed Consumption
w25074 Andri Chassamboulli
Giovanni Peri

The Economic Effect of Immigration Policies: Analyzing and Simulating the U.S. Case
w25073 Pablo D'Erasmo
Enrique G. Mendoza

History Remembered: Optimal Sovereign Default on Domestic and External Debt
w25071 Nelson Lind
Natalia Ramondo

Innovation, Knowledge Diffusion, and Globalization
w25066 Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
Pierre-Daniel Sarte
Nicholas Trachter

Diverging Trends in National and Local Concentration
w25065 David J. Deming
Kadeem L. Noray

STEM Careers and Technological Change
w25054 Efraim Benmelech
Nittai Bergman

Debt, Information, and Illiquidity
w25048 Julien Bengui
Javier Bianchi

Macroprudential Policy with Leakages
w25031 Sergio Rebelo
Neng Wang
Jinqiang Yang

Rare Disasters, Financial Development, and Sovereign Debt
w25020 Adrien Auclert
Matthew Rognlie
Ludwig Straub

The Intertemporal Keynesian Cross
w25011 Marina Azzimonti
Vincenzo Quadrini

International Spillovers and 'Ex-ante' Efficient Bailouts
w25005 Dean Corbae
Andrew Glover

Employer Credit Checks: Poverty Traps versus Matching Efficiency
w24989 Björn Richter
Moritz Schularick
Ilhyock Shim

The Costs of Macroprudential Policy
w24988 John J. Conlon
Laura Pilossoph
Matthew Wiswall
Basit Zafar

Labor Market Search With Imperfect Information and Learning
w24987 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Saten Kumar
Jane Ryngaert

Do You Know That I Know That You Know...? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data
w24985 Yongsung Chang
Sun-Bin Kim
Kyooho Kwon
Richard Rogerson

Individual and Aggregate Labor Supply in Heterogeneous Agent Economies with Intensive and Extensive Margins
w24984 Jess Benhabib
Xuewen Liu
Pengfei Wang

Financial Markets, the Real Economy, and Self-fulfilling Uncertainties
w24981 Luigi Bocola
Gideon Bornstein
Alessandro Dovis

Quantitative Sovereign Default Models and the European Debt Crisis
w24979 Pierre Yared
Rising Government Debt: Causes and Solutions for a Decades-Old Trend
w24978 Mel Win Khaw
Ziang Li
Michael Woodford

Cognitive Imprecision and Small-Stakes Risk Aversion
w24973 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Andra Ghent
Valentin Haddad

Asset Insulators
w24972 Hengjie Ai
Anmol Bhandari

Asset Pricing with Endogenously Uninsurable Tail Risk
w24971 Pascal Michaillat
Emmanuel Saez

A New Keynesian Model with Wealth in the Utility Function
w24968 Pedro Bento
Diego Restuccia

On Average Establishment Size across Sectors and Countries
w24967 Francis X. Diebold
Minchul Shin

Machine Learning for Regularized Survey Forecast Combination: Partially-Egalitarian Lasso and its Derivatives
w24960 Ping Wang
Tsz-Nga Wong
Chong K. Yip

Mismatch and Assimilation
w24956 Julien Hugonnier
Benjamin Lester
Pierre-Olivier Weill

Frictional Intermediation in Over-the-counter Markets
w24952 Edward L. Glaeser
Hyunjin Kim
Michael Luca

Measuring Gentrification: Using Yelp Data to Quantify Neighborhood Change
w24949 Lawrence Christiano
Yuta Takahashi

Discouraging Deviant Behavior in Monetary Economics
w24937 Johannes Boehm
Ezra Oberfield

Misallocation in the Market for Inputs: Enforcement and the Organization of Production
w24936 Charles W. Calomiris
Sophia Chen

The Spread of Deposit Insurance and the Global Rise in Bank Asset Risk since the 1970s
w24934 Stefania Albanesi
Jaromir Nosal

Insolvency After the 2005 Bankruptcy Reform
w24932 Pedro Bordalo
Nicola Gennaioli
Yueran Ma
Andrei Shleifer

Over-reaction in Macroeconomic Expectations
w24918 Klaus Desmet
Robert E. Kopp
Scott A. Kulp
Dávid Krisztián Nagy
Michael Oppenheimer
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
Benjamin H. Strauss

Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding
w24915 Jennifer Bruner
Dylan G. Rassier
Kim J. Ruhl

Multinational Profit Shifting and Measures throughout Economic Accounts
w24914 Nicolas S. Lambert
Giorgio Martini
Michael Ostrovsky

Quadratic Games
w24909 Roberto Perotti
The Human Side of Austerity: Health Spending and Outcomes During the Greek Crisis
w24905 Charles F. Manski
The Lure of Incredible Certitude
w24902 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Manuel Lancastre
Lawrence H. Summers

Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular Stagnation
w24895 Jonathan H. Wright
Seasonal Adjustment of NIPA data
w24893 Laura Bakkensen
Lint Barrage

Climate Shocks, Cyclones, and Economic Growth: Bridging the Micro-Macro Gap
w24891 Robert J. Gordon
Friedman and Phelps on the Phillips Curve Viewed from a Half Century's Perspective
w24890 Harold Cole
Daniel Neuhann
Guillermo Ordoñez

A Walrasian Theory of Sovereign Debt Auctions with Asymmetric Information
w24877 Yukun Liu
Aleh Tsyvinski

Risks and Returns of Cryptocurrency
w24875 George-Marios Angeletos
Fabrice Collard
Harris Dellas

Business Cycle Anatomy
w24873 Edward P. Lazear
Kristin McCue

What Causes Labor Turnover To Vary?
w24871 David Autor
Anna Salomons

Is Automation Labor-Displacing? Productivity Growth, Employment, and the Labor Share
w24868 C. Jara Figueroa
Bogang Jun
Edward L. Glaeser
César Hidalgo

The Role of Industry, Occupation, and Location-Specific Knowledge in the Survival of New Firms
w24867 Adrien Bilal
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Location as an Asset
w24866 Gary Gorton
Toomas Laarits
Andrew Metrick

The Run on Repo and the Fed's Response
w24845 Jordi Galí
The State of New Keynesian Economics: A Partial Assessment
w24825 Jan David Bakker
Stephan Maurer
Jörn-Steffen Pischke
Ferdinand Rauch

Of Mice and Merchants: Trade and Growth in the Iron Age
w24823 Atif Mian
Amir Sufi

Credit Supply and Housing Speculation
w24811 Lawrence J. Christiano
Martin S. Eichenbaum
Mathias Trabandt

On DSGE Models
w24808 Jeremy Greenwood
Pengfei Han
Juan M. Sanchez

Financing Ventures
w24807 Cecile Gaubert
Oleg Itskhoki

Granular Comparative Advantage
w24800 Chris Edmond
Virgiliu Midrigan
Daniel Yi Xu

How Costly Are Markups?
w24794 Doireann Fitzgerald
Anthony Priolo

How Do Firms Build Market Share?
w24788 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Saten Kumar
Mathieu Pedemonte

Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool?
w24784 Spencer G. Lyon
Michael E. Waugh

Redistributing the Gains From Trade Through Progressive Taxation
w24776 Mari Tanaka
Nicholas Bloom
Joel M. David
Maiko Koga

Firm Performance and Macro Forecast Accuracy
w24758 Giorgio Chiovelli
Stelios Michalopoulos
Elias Papaioannou

Landmines and Spatial Development
w24757 Vadim Elenev
Tim Landvoigt
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

A Macroeconomic Model with Financially Constrained Producers and Intermediaries
w24752 Pablo Kurlat
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Fire Sales
w24746 Mark Gertler
Simon Gilchrist

What Happened: Financial Factors in the Great Recession
w24744 Douglas Gollin
Casper Worm Hansen
Asger Wingender

Two Blades of Grass: The Impact of the Green Revolution
w24743 Eric M. Leeper
Sweden's Fiscal Framework and Monetary Policy
w24741 Patrick J. Kehoe
Virgiliu Midrigan
Elena Pastorino

Evolution of Modern Business Cycle Models: Accounting for the Great Recession
w24738 Greg Kaplan
Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

The Changing (Dis-)Utility of Work
w24734 Greg Kaplan
Giovanni L. Violante

Microeconomic Heterogeneity and Macroeconomic Shocks
w24729 Adam M. Guren
Alisdair McKay
Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

Housing Wealth Effects: The Long View
w24727 Klaus Desmet
Avner Greif
Stephen Parente

Spatial Competition, Innovation and Institutions: The Industrial Revolution and the Great Divergence
w24722 Miles S. Kimball
Matthew D. Shapiro
Tyler Shumway
Jing Zhang

Portfolio Rebalancing in General Equilibrium
w24718 Nicholas Bloom
Kalina Manova
John Van Reenen
Stephen Teng Sun
Zhihong Yu

Managing Trade: Evidence from China and the US
w24714 Jing Cynthia Wu
Ji Zhang

Global Effective Lower Bound and Unconventional Monetary Policy
w24710 Anmol Bhandari
David Evans
Mikhail Golosov
Thomas J. Sargent

Inequality, Business Cycles, and Monetary-Fiscal Policy
w24709 Kewei Hou
Haitao Mo
Chen Xue
Lu Zhang

q5
w24702 Omar Barbiero
Emmanuel Farhi
Gita Gopinath
Oleg Itskhoki

The Macroeconomics of Border Taxes
w24700 Germán Gutiérrez
Thomas Philippon

How EU Markets Became More Competitive Than US Markets: A Study of Institutional Drift
w24699 Bronson Argyle
Taylor D. Nadauld
Christopher Palmer
Ryan D. Pratt

The Capitalization of Consumer Financing into Durable Goods Prices
w24692 Michael Woodford
Monetary Policy Analysis when Planning Horizons are Finite
w24685 Paul Beaudry
Tim Willems

On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism
w24684 David Rezza Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

Macroeconomics with Heterogeneous Agents and Input-Output Networks
w24683 Mark A. Aguiar
Manuel Amador

Self-Fulfilling Debt Dilution: Maturity and Multiplicity in Debt Models
w24682 Manuel Amador
Christopher Phelan

Reputation and Sovereign Default
w24680 Sara Fisher Ellison
Christopher Snyder
Hongkai Zhang

Costs of Managerial Attention and Activity as a Source of Sticky Prices: Structural Estimates from an Online Market
w24673 Matteo Maggiori
Brent Neiman
Jesse Schreger

International Currencies and Capital Allocation
w24665 Martin Ravallion
Dean Jolliffe
Juan Margitic

Social Protection and Economic Development: Are the Poorest Being Lifted-Up or Left-Behind?
w24661 Richard Hornbeck
Enrico Moretti

Who Benefits From Productivity Growth? Direct and Indirect Effects of Local TFP Growth on Wages, Rents, and Inequality
w24654 Javier Cravino
Ting Lan
Andrei A. Levchenko

Price Stickiness along the Income Distribution and the Effects of Monetary Policy
w24649 Austan D. Goolsbee
Peter J. Klenow

Internet Rising, Prices Falling: Measuring Inflation in a World of E-Commerce
w24643 Narayana R. Kocherlakota
Practical Policy Evaluation
w24629 Klaus Adam
Michael Woodford

Leaning Against Housing Prices as Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy
w24622 Brian Lucking
Nicholas Bloom
John Van Reenen

Have R&D Spillovers Changed?
w24612 Lawrence Christiano
Martin S. Eichenbaum
Benjamin K. Johannsen

Does the New Keynesian Model Have a Uniqueness Problem?
w24600 Philippe Aghion
Antonin Bergeaud
Matthieu Lequien
Marc J. Melitz

The Impact of Exports on Innovation: Theory and Evidence
w24597 Christiane Baumeister
James D. Hamilton

Inference in Structural Vector Autoregressions When the Identifying Assumptions are Not Fully Believed: Re-evaluating the Role of Monetary Policy in Economic Fluctuations
w24574 Robert E. Hall
New Evidence on the Markup of Prices over Marginal Costs and the Role of Mega-Firms in the US Economy
w24571 Iván Alfaro
Nicholas Bloom
Xiaoji Lin

The Finance Uncertainty Multiplier
w24570 Nancy L. Stokey
Technology and Skill: Twin Engines of Growth
w24569 Christopher Busch
David Domeij
Fatih Guvenen
Rocio Madera

Asymmetric Business-Cycle Risk and Social Insurance
w24568 Berthold Herrendorf
Richard Rogerson
Ákos Valentinyi

Structural Change in Investment and Consumption: A Unified Approach
w24561 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
David Zarruk Valencia

A Practical Guide to Parallelization in Economics
w24560 Felipe Benguria
Felipe Saffie
Sergio Urzúa

The Transmission of Commodity Price Super-Cycles
w24555 Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Luc Laeven
David Moreno

Debt Overhang, Rollover Risk, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from the European Crisis
w24554 Robert J. Gordon
Why Has Economic Growth Slowed When Innovation Appears to be Accelerating?
w24550 Juliane Begenau
Maryam Farboodi
Laura Veldkamp

Big Data in Finance and the Growth of Large Firms
w24549 Mathias Drehmann
Mikael Juselius
Anton Korinek

Going With the Flows: New Borrowing, Debt Service and the Transmission of Credit Booms
w24546 Ashantha Ranasinghe
Diego Restuccia

Financial Frictions and the Rule of Law
w24545 George-Marios Angeletos
Zhen Huo

Myopia and Anchoring
w24543 Ufuk Akcigit
Sina T. Ates
Giammario Impullitti

Innovation and Trade Policy in a Globalized World
w24541 Ajay Agrawal
John McHale
Alex Oettl

Finding Needles in Haystacks: Artificial Intelligence and Recombinant Growth
w24534 Marina Azzimonti
Pierre Yared

The Optimal Public and Private Provision of Safe Assets
w24533 Giacomo A.M. Ponzetto
Ugo Troiano

Social Capital, Government Expenditures and Growth
w24532 Tasso Adamopoulos
Diego Restuccia

Geography and Agricultural Productivity: Cross-Country Evidence from Micro Plot-Level Data
w24529 Carolin Pflueger
Emil Siriwardane
Adi Sunderam

A Measure of Risk Appetite for the Macroeconomy
w24522 Davide Debortoli
Ricardo Nunes
Pierre Yared

Optimal Fiscal Policy without Commitment: Beyond Lucas-Stokey
w24521 Marcus Hagedorn
Jinfeng Luo
Iourii Manovskii
Kurt Mitman

Forward Guidance
w24520 Anmol Bhandari
Ellen R. McGrattan

Sweat Equity in U.S. Private Business
w24518 Paolo Martellini
Guido Menzio

Declining Search Frictions, Unemployment and Growth
w24514 Erik Brynjolfsson
Felix Eggers
Avinash Gannamaneni

Using Massive Online Choice Experiments to Measure Changes in Well-being
w24509 Juan Ospina
Harald Uhlig

Mortgage-Backed Securities and the Financial Crisis of 2008: a Post Mortem
w24498 Roger Farmer
The Role of Financial Policy
w24496 Marina Halac
Pierre Yared

Instrument-Based vs. Target-Based Rules
w24485 Gita Gopinath
Jeremy C. Stein

Banking, Trade, and the making of a Dominant Currency
w24483 Linda Schilling
Harald Uhlig

Some Simple Bitcoin Economics
w24474 Norman Loayza
Amine Ouazad
Romain Rancière

Financial Development, Growth, and Crisis: Is There a Trade-Off?
w24472 Chunzan Wu
Dirk Krueger

How Much Consumption Insurance in Bewley Models with Endogenous Family Labor Supply?
w24468 Kerwin Kofi Charles
Erik Hurst
Mariel Schwartz

The Transformation of Manufacturing and the Decline in U.S. Employment
w24466 Ufuk Akcigit
Santiago Caicedo
Ernest Miguelez
Stefanie Stantcheva
Valerio Sterzi

Dancing with the Stars: Innovation Through Interactions
w24462 Marina Azzimonti
Marcos Fernandes

Social Media Networks, Fake News, and Polarization
w24446 Adam M. Guren
Arvind Krishnamurthy
Timothy J. McQuade

Mortgage Design in an Equilibrium Model of the Housing Market
w24444 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Debora Revoltella
Jan Svejnar
Christoph T. Weiss

Resource Misallocation in European Firms: The Role of Constraints, Firm Characteristics and Managerial Decisions
w24439 Zhengyang Jiang
Arvind Krishnamurthy
Hanno Lustig

Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate
w24436 Yan Bai
Dan Lu
Xu Tian

Do Financial Frictions Explain Chinese Firms' Saving and Misallocation?
w24434 Eric Anderson
Sergio Rebelo
Arlene Wong

Markups Across Space and Time
w24421 Daron Acemoglu
Pascual Restrepo

Demographics and Automation
w24420 Lucia Foster
Cheryl Grim
John C. Haltiwanger
Zoltan Wolf

Innovation, Productivity Dispersion, and Productivity Growth
w24419 Maxim Pinkovskiy
Xavier Sala-i-Martin

Shining a Light on Purchasing Power Parities
w24411 Daron Acemoglu
Will Rafey

Mirage on the Horizon: Geoengineering and Carbon Taxation Without Commitment
w24408 Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
Isaac Sorkin
Henry Swift

Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How
w24406 Arun G. Chandrasekhar
Robert Townsend
Juan Pablo Xandri

Financial Centrality and Liquidity Provision
w24404 Loukas Karabarbounis
Brent Neiman

Accounting for Factorless Income
w24400 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

Reach for Yield and Fickle Capital Flows
w24393 Roger Farmer
Pawel Zabczyk

The Household Fallacy
w24386 Andreas Fuster
Greg Kaplan
Basit Zafar

What Would You Do With $500? Spending Responses to Gains, Losses, News and Loans
w24377 Christopher D. Carroll
Edmund Crawley
Jiri Slacalek
Kiichi Tokuoka
Matthew N. White

Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics
w24373 Alexandr Kopytov
Nikolai Roussanov
Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel

Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain? Recessions and Technological Transformation
w24364 Kimberly Bayard
Emin Dinlersoz
Timothy Dunne
John Haltiwanger
Javier Miranda
John Stevens

Early-Stage Business Formation: An Analysis of Applications for Employer Identification Numbers
w24362 Julian Kozlowski
Laura Veldkamp
Venky Venkateswaran

The Tail that Keeps the Riskless Rate Low
w24357 Sangmin Aum
Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee
Yongseok Shin

Computerizing Industries and Routinizing Jobs: Explaining Trends in Aggregate Productivity
w24355 Kasey Buckles
Daniel Hungerman
Steven Lugauer

Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?
w24335 Dirk Krueger
Alexander Ludwig

Optimal Taxes on Capital in the OLG Model with Uninsurable Idiosyncratic Income Risk
w24331 Kenneth R. Ahern
The Importance of Psychology in Economic Activity: Evidence from Terrorist Attacks
w24328 Philippe Andrade
Jordi Galí
Hervé Le Bihan
Julien Matheron

The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest
w24325 Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
M. Hashem Pesaran
Alessandro Rebucci

Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Multi-Country Perspective
w24322 Atif R. Mian
Amir Sufi

Finance and Business Cycles: The Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel
w24321 Daron Acemoglu
Pascual Restrepo

Modeling Automation
w24307 Efraim Benmelech
Nittai Bergman
Hyunseob Kim

Strong Employers and Weak Employees: How Does Employer Concentration Affect Wages?
w24298 Gary B. Gorton
Toomas Laarits

Collateral Damage
w24280 Adrien Auclert
Matthew Rognlie

Inequality and Aggregate Demand
w24274 Guido Matias Cortes
Nir Jaimovich
Henry E. Siu

The "End of Men" and Rise of Women in the High-Skilled Labor Market
w24263 Richard Rogerson
Johanna Wallenius

Household Time Use Among Older Couples: Evidence and Implications for Labor Supply Parameters
w24261 Roger Farmer
Pricing Assets in a Perpetual Youth Model
w24257 Dan Cao
Iván Werning

Saving and Dissaving with Hyperbolic Discounting
w24256 John B. Donaldson
Christos Koulovatianos
Jian Li
Rajnish Mehra

Demographics and FDI: Lessons from China's One-Child Policy
w24249 Nicholas Bloom
Aprajit Mahajan
David McKenzie
John Roberts

Do Management Interventions Last? Evidence from India
w24244 Francesco D’Acunto
Daniel Hoang
Michael Weber

Unconventional Fiscal Policy
w24236 Ryan A. Decker
John C. Haltiwanger
Ron S. Jarmin
Javier Miranda

Changing Business Dynamism and Productivity: Shocks vs. Responsiveness
w24234 Alberto Martin
Jaume Ventura

The Macroeconomics of Rational Bubbles: A User's Guide
w24230 Zheng Michael Song
Wei Xiong

Risks in China's Financial System
w24223 Paul Beaudry
Franck Portier

Real Keynesian Models and Sticky Prices
w24221 Pablo Ottonello
Thomas Winberry

Financial Heterogeneity and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy
w24220 Lance Lochner
Youngmin Park
Youngki Shin

Wage Dynamics and Returns to Unobserved Skill
w24216 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments
w24209 Jacob Moscona
Nathan Nunn
James A. Robinson

Social Structure and Conflict: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa
w24205 Sebastian Di Tella
A Neoclassical Theory of Liquidity Traps
w24200 Gregor Jarosch
Laura Pilossoph

Statistical Discrimination and Duration Dependence in the Job Finding Rate
w24199 John Haltiwanger
Robert Kulick
Chad Syverson

Misallocation Measures: The Distortion That Ate the Residual
w24196 Daron Acemoglu
Pascual Restrepo

Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work
w24193 David Lagakos
Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
Michael E. Waugh

The Welfare Effects of Encouraging Rural-Urban Migration
w24187 Nathan Nunn
Nancy Qian
Jaya Wen

Distrust and Political Turnover

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