NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Papers on Economic Fluctuations and Growth

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2018
w24727 Klaus Desmet
Avner Greif
Stephen Parente

Spatial Competition, Innovation and Institutions: The Industrial Revolution and the Great Divergence
w24709 Kewei Hou
Haitao Mo
Chen Xue
Lu Zhang

q5
w24710 Anmol Bhandari
David Evans
Mikhail Golosov
Thomas J. Sargent

Inequality, Business Cycles, and Monetary-Fiscal Policy
w24714 Jing Cynthia Wu
Ji Zhang

Global Effective Lower Bound and Unconventional Monetary Policy
w24718 Nicholas Bloom
Kalina Manova
John Van Reenen
Stephen Teng Sun
Zhihong Yu

Managing Trade: Evidence from China and the US
w24722 Miles S. Kimball
Matthew D. Shapiro
Tyler Shumway
Jing Zhang

Portfolio Rebalancing in General Equilibrium
w24729 Adam M. Guren
Alisdair McKay
Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

Housing Wealth Effects: The Long View
w24680 Sara Fisher Ellison
Christopher Snyder
Hongkai Zhang

Costs of Managerial Attention and Activity as a Source of Sticky Prices: Structural Estimates from an Online Market
w24682 Manuel Amador
Christopher Phelan

Reputation and Sovereign Default
w24683 Mark A. Aguiar
Manuel Amador

Self-Fulfilling Debt Dilution: Maturity and Multiplicity in Debt Models
w24684 David Rezza Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

Unbundling Macroeconomics via Heterogeneous Agents and Input-Output Networks
w24685 Paul Beaudry
Tim Willems

On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism
w24692 Michael Woodford
Monetary Policy Analysis when Planning Horizons are Finite
w24699 Bronson Argyle
Taylor D. Nadauld
Christopher Palmer
Ryan D. Pratt

The Capitalization of Consumer Financing into Durable Goods Prices
w24700 Germán Gutiérrez
Thomas Philippon

How EU Markets Became More Competitive Than US Markets: A Study of Institutional Drift
w24702 Omar Barbiero
Emmanuel Farhi
Gita Gopinath
Oleg Itskhoki

The Macroeconomics of Border Taxes
w24661 Richard Hornbeck
Enrico Moretti

Who Benefits From Productivity Growth? Direct and Indirect Effects of Local TFP Growth on Wages, Rents, and Inequality
w24665 Martin Ravallion
Dean Jolliffe
Juan Margitic

Social Protection and Economic Development: Are the Poorest Being Lifted-Up or Left-Behind?
w24673 Matteo Maggiori
Brent Neiman
Jesse Schreger

International Currencies and Capital Allocation
w24643 Narayana R. Kocherlakota
Practical Policy Evaluation
w24649 Austan D. Goolsbee
Peter J. Klenow

Internet Rising, Prices Falling: Measuring Inflation in a World of E-Commerce
w24654 Javier Cravino
Ting Lan
Andrei A. Levchenko

Price Stickiness along the Income Distribution and the Effects of Monetary Policy
w24612 Lawrence Christiano
Martin S. Eichenbaum
Benjamin K. Johannsen

Does the New Keynesian Model Have a Uniqueness Problem?
w24622 Brian Lucking
Nicholas Bloom
John Van Reenen

Have R&D Spillovers Changed?
w24629 Klaus Adam
Michael Woodford

Leaning Against Housing Prices as Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy
w24597 Christiane Baumeister
James D. Hamilton

Inference in Structural Vector Autoregressions When the Identifying Assumptions are Not Fully Believed: Re-evaluating the Role of Monetary Policy in Economic Fluctuations
w24600 Philippe Aghion
Antonin Bergeaud
Matthieu Lequien
Marc J. Melitz

The Impact of Exports on Innovation: Theory and Evidence
w24568 Berthold Herrendorf
Richard Rogerson
Ákos Valentinyi

Structural Change in Investment and Consumption: A Unified Approach
w24569 Christopher Busch
David Domeij
Fatih Guvenen
Rocio Madera

Asymmetric Business-Cycle Risk and Social Insurance
w24570 Nancy L. Stokey
Technology and Skill: Twin Engines of Growth
w24571 Iván Alfaro
Nicholas Bloom
Xiaoji Lin

The Finance Uncertainty Multiplier
w24574 Robert E. Hall
New Evidence on the Markup of Prices over Marginal Costs and the Role of Mega-Firms in the US Economy
w24545 George-Marios Angeletos
Zhen Huo

Myopia and Anchoring
w24546 Ashantha Ranasinghe
Diego Restuccia

Financial Frictions and the Rule of Law
w24549 Mathias Drehmann
Mikael Juselius
Anton Korinek

Going With the Flows: New Borrowing, Debt Service and the Transmission of Credit Booms
w24550 Juliane Begenau
Maryam Farboodi
Laura Veldkamp

Big Data in Finance and the Growth of Large Firms
w24554 Robert J. Gordon
Why Has Economic Growth Slowed When Innovation Appears to be Accelerating?
w24555 Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Luc Laeven
David Moreno

Debt Overhang, Rollover Risk, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from the European Crisis
w24560 Felipe Benguria
Felipe Saffie
Sergio Urzúa

The Transmission of Commodity Price Super-Cycles
w24561 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
David Zarruk Valencia

A Practical Guide to Parallelization in Economics
w24522 Davide Debortoli
Ricardo Nunes
Pierre Yared

Optimal Taxation and Debt Management without Commitment
w24529 Carolin Pflueger
Emil Siriwardane
Adi Sunderam

A Measure of Risk Appetite for the Macroeconomy
w24532 Tasso Adamopoulos
Diego Restuccia

Geography and Agricultural Productivity: Cross-Country Evidence from Micro Plot-Level Data
w24533 Giacomo A.M. Ponzetto
Ugo Troiano

Social Capital, Government Expenditures and Growth
w24534 Marina Azzimonti
Pierre Yared

The Optimal Public and Private Provision of Safe Assets
w24541 Ajay Agrawal
John McHale
Alex Oettl

Finding Needles in Haystacks: Artificial Intelligence and Recombinant Growth
w24543 Ufuk Akcigit
Sina T. Ates
Giammario Impullitti

Innovation and Trade Policy in a Globalized World
w24521 Marcus Hagedorn
Jinfeng Luo
Iourii Manovskii
Kurt Mitman

Forward Guidance
w24509 Juan Ospina
Harald Uhlig

Mortgage-Backed Securities and the Financial Crisis of 2008: a Post Mortem
w24514 Erik Brynjolfsson
Felix Eggers
Avinash Gannamaneni

Using Massive Online Choice Experiments to Measure Changes in Well-being
w24518 Paolo Martellini
Guido Menzio

Declining Search Frictions, Unemployment and Growth
w24520 Anmol Bhandari
Ellen R. McGrattan

Sweat Equity in U.S. Private Business
w24474 Norman Loayza
Amine Ouazad
Romain Rancière

Financial Development, Growth, and Crisis: Is There a Trade-Off?
w24498 Roger Farmer
The Role of Financial Policy
w24483 Linda Schilling
Harald Uhlig

Some Simple Bitcoin Economics
w24485 Gita Gopinath
Jeremy C. Stein

Banking, Trade, and the making of a Dominant Currency
w24496 Marina Halac
Pierre Yared

Instrument-Based vs. Target-Based Rules
w24462 Marina Azzimonti
Marcos Fernandes

Social Media Networks, Fake News, and Polarization
w24466 Ufuk Akcigit
Santiago Caicedo
Ernest Miguelez
Stefanie Stantcheva
Valerio Sterzi

Dancing with the Stars: Innovation Through Interactions
w24468 Kerwin Kofi Charles
Erik Hurst
Mariel Schwartz

The Transformation of Manufacturing and the Decline in U.S. Employment
w24472 Chunzan Wu
Dirk Krueger

How Much Consumption Insurance in Bewley Models with Endogenous Family Labor Supply?
w24444 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Debora Revoltella
Jan Svejnar
Christoph T. Weiss

Resource Misallocation in European Firms: The Role of Constraints, Firm Characteristics and Managerial Decisions
w24434 Eric Anderson
Sergio Rebelo
Arlene Wong

Markups Across Space and Time
w24436 Yan Bai
Dan Lu
Xu Tian

Do Financial Frictions Explain Chinese Firms' Saving and Misallocation?
w24439 Zhengyang Jiang
Arvind Krishnamurthy
Hanno Lustig

Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate
w24446 Adam M. Guren
Arvind Krishnamurthy
Timothy J. McQuade

Mortgage Design in an Equilibrium Model of the Housing Market
w24406 Arun G. Chandrasekhar
Robert Townsend
Juan Pablo Xandri

Financial Centrality and Liquidity Provision
w24408 Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
Isaac Sorkin
Henry Swift

Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How
w24411 Daron Acemoglu
Will Rafey

Mirage on the Horizon: Geoengineering and Carbon Taxation Without Commitment
w24419 Maxim Pinkovskiy
Xavier Sala-i-Martin

Shining a Light on Purchasing Power Parities
w24420 Lucia Foster
Cheryl Grim
John C. Haltiwanger
Zoltan Wolf

Innovation, Productivity Dispersion, and Productivity Growth
w24421 Daron Acemoglu
Pascual Restrepo

Demographics and Automation
w24386 Andreas Fuster
Greg Kaplan
Basit Zafar

What Would You Do With $500? Spending Responses to Gains, Losses, News and Loans
w24393 Roger Farmer
Pawel Zabczyk

The Household Fallacy
w24400 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

Reach for Yield and Fickle Capital Flows
w24404 Loukas Karabarbounis
Brent Neiman

Accounting for Factorless Income
w24364 Kimberly Bayard
Emin Dinlersoz
Timothy Dunne
John Haltiwanger
Javier Miranda
John Stevens

Early-Stage Business Formation: An Analysis of Applications for Employer Identification Numbers
w24373 Alexandr Kopytov
Nikolai Roussanov
Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel

Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain? Recessions and Technological Transformation
w24377 Christopher D. Carroll
Edmund Crawley
Jiri Slacalek
Kiichi Tokuoka
Matthew N. White

Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics
w24355 Kasey Buckles
Daniel Hungerman
Steven Lugauer

Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?
w24357 Sangmin Aum
Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee
Yongseok Shin

Computerizing Industries and Routinizing Jobs: Explaining Trends in Aggregate Productivity
w24362 Julian Kozlowski
Laura Veldkamp
Venky Venkateswaran

The Tail that Keeps the Riskless Rate Low
w24321 Daron Acemoglu
Pascual Restrepo

Modeling Automation
w24322 Atif R. Mian
Amir Sufi

Finance and Business Cycles: The Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel
w24325 Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
M. Hashem Pesaran
Alessandro Rebucci

Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Multi-Country Perspective
w24328 Philippe Andrade
Jordi Galí
Hervé Le Bihan
Julien Matheron

The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest
w24331 Kenneth R. Ahern
The Importance of Psychology in Economic Activity: Evidence from Terrorist Attacks
w24335 Dirk Krueger
Alexander Ludwig

Optimal Taxes on Capital in the OLG Model with Uninsurable Idiosyncratic Income Risk
w24298 Gary B. Gorton
Toomas Laarits

Collateral Damage
w24307 Efraim Benmelech
Nittai Bergman
Hyunseob Kim

Strong Employers and Weak Employees: How Does Employer Concentration Affect Wages?
w24274 Guido Matias Cortes
Nir Jaimovich
Henry E. Siu

The "End of Men" and Rise of Women in the High-Skilled Labor Market
w24280 Adrien Auclert
Matthew Rognlie

Inequality and Aggregate Demand
w24244 Francesco D’Acunto
Daniel Hoang
Michael Weber

Unconventional Fiscal Policy
w24249 Nicholas Bloom
Aprajit Mahajan
David McKenzie
John Roberts

Do Management Interventions Last? Evidence from India
w24256 John B. Donaldson
Christos Koulovatianos
Jian Li
Rajnish Mehra

Demographics and FDI: Lessons from China's One-Child Policy
w24257 Dan Cao
Iván Werning

Saving and Dissaving with Hyperbolic Discounting
w24261 Roger Farmer
Pricing Assets in a Perpetual Youth Model
w24263 Richard Rogerson
Johanna Wallenius

Household Time Use Among Older Couples: Evidence and Implications for Labor Supply Parameters
w24216 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments
w24220 Lance Lochner
Youngmin Park
Youngki Shin

Wage Dynamics and Returns to Unobserved Skill
w24221 Pablo Ottonello
Thomas Winberry

Financial Heterogeneity and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy
w24223 Paul Beaudry
Franck Portier

Real Keynesian Models and Sticky Prices
w24230 Zheng Michael Song
Wei Xiong

Risks in China's Financial System
w24234 Alberto Martin
Jaume Ventura

The Macroeconomics of Rational Bubbles: A User's Guide
w24236 Ryan A. Decker
John C. Haltiwanger
Ron S. Jarmin
Javier Miranda

Changing Business Dynamism and Productivity: Shocks vs. Responsiveness
w24205 Sebastian Di Tella
A Neoclassical Theory of Liquidity Traps
w24209 Jacob Moscona
Nathan Nunn
James A. Robinson

Social Structure and Conflict: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa
w24193 David Lagakos
Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
Michael E. Waugh

The Welfare Effects of Encouraging Rural-Urban Migration
w24196 Daron Acemoglu
Pascual Restrepo

Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work
w24199 John Haltiwanger
Robert Kulick
Chad Syverson

Misallocation Measures: The Distortion That Ate the Residual
w24200 Gregor Jarosch
Laura Pilossoph

Statistical Discrimination and Duration Dependence in the Job Finding Rate
w24187 Nathan Nunn
Nancy Qian
Jaya Wen

Distrust and Political Turnover
2017
w24171 Maryam Farboodi
Gregor Jarosch
Guido Menzio

Intermediation as Rent Extraction
w24167 Christiane J.S. Baumeister
James D. Hamilton

Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks
w24179 Olivier J. Blanchard
Lawrence H. Summers

Rethinking Stabilization Policy: Evolution or Revolution?
w24166 Job Boerma
Loukas Karabarbounis

Inferring Inequality with Home Production
w24174 Anton Korinek
Joseph E. Stiglitz

Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment
w24178 George-Marios Angeletos
Frictional Coordination
w24135 Frederic S. Mishkin
Making Discretion in Monetary Policy More Rule-Like
w24152 Anton Korinek
Regulating Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: An Externality View
w24148 Robert E. Hall
Thomas J. Sargent

Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Milton Friedman's Presidential Address
w24138 Timo Boppart
Per Krusell
Kurt Mitman

Exploiting MIT Shocks in Heterogeneous-Agent Economies: The Impulse Response as a Numerical Derivative
w24149 John B. Taylor
Rules Versus Discretion: Assessing the Debate Over the Conduct of Monetary Policy
w24112 Òscar Jordà
Katharina Knoll
Dmitry Kuvshinov
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
w24116 Daron Acemoglu
Pablo D. Azar

Endogenous Production Networks
w24122 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Walker Ray

The Effects of Quantitative Easing: Taking a Cue from Treasury Auctions
w24123 Felix Bierbrauer
Aleh Tsyvinski
Nicolas D. Werquin

Taxes and Turnout
w24126 Mark Gertler
Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
Andrea Prestipino

A Macroeconomic Model with Financial Panics
w24132 Eduardo Dávila
Ansgar Walther

Does Size Matter? Bailouts with Large and Small Banks
w24093 Mario J. Crucini
Nam T. Vu

Did the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Help Those Most in Need? A County-Level Analysis
w24096 Xavier Gabaix
Behavioral Inattention
w24108 Anusha Chari
Ryan Leary
Toan Phan

The Costs of (sub)Sovereign Default Risk: Evidence from Puerto Rico
w24110 Philippe Aghion
Ufuk Akcigit
Ari Hyytinen
Otto Toivanen

The Social Origins of Inventors
w24062 Alexander M. Bell
Raj Chetty
Xavier Jaravel
Neviana Petkova
John Van Reenen

Who Becomes an Inventor in America? The Importance of Exposure to Innovation
w24072 Tatyana Deryugina
Solomon Hsiang

The Marginal Product of Climate
w24074 Katarína Borovičková
Robert Shimer

High Wage Workers Work for High Wage Firms
w24076 Sebastian Di Tella
Pablo Kurlat

Why are Banks Exposed to Monetary Policy?
w24077 Aaron B. Flaaen
Matthew D. Shapiro
Isaac Sorkin

Reconsidering the Consequences of Worker Displacements: Firm versus Worker Perspective
w24086 Narayana R. Kocherlakota
The L-Shaped Phillips Curve: Theoretical Justification and Empirical Implications
w24088 Stelios Michalopoulos
Elias Papaioannou

Spatial Patterns of Development: A Meso Approach
w24091 Michael Bailey
Eduardo Dávila
Theresa Kuchler
Johannes Stroebel

House Price Beliefs And Mortgage Leverage Choice
w24046 Daron Acemoglu
Ali Makhdoumi
Azarakhsh Malekian
Asuman Ozdaglar

Fast and Slow Learning From Reviews
w24050 Gideon Bornstein
Guido Lorenzoni

Moral Hazard Misconceptions: the Case of the Greenspan Put
w24057 Olivier J. Blanchard
Should we Get rid of the Natural Rate Hypothesis?
w24023 Philippe Aghion
Antonin Bergeaud
Timo Boppart
Peter J. Klenow
Huiyu Li

Missing Growth from Creative Destruction
w24029 Tarek A. Hassan
Stephan Hollander
Laurence van Lent
Ahmed Tahoun

Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects
w24043 N. Gregory Mankiw
Ricardo Reis

Friedman's Presidential Address in the Evolution of Macroeconomic Thought
w24034 Chaoran Chen
Diego Restuccia
Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis

The Effects of Land Markets on Resource Allocation and Agricultural Productivity
w24006 Richard Blundell
Luigi Pistaferri
Itay Saporta-Eksten

Children, Time Allocation and Consumption Insurance
w24007 David Rezza Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

Productivity and Misallocation in General Equilibrium.
w24008 John Ameriks
Joseph S. Briggs
Andrew Caplin
Minjoon Lee
Matthew D. Shapiro
Christopher Tonetti

Older Americans Would Work Longer If Jobs Were Flexible
w24010 Edward L. Glaeser
Hyunjin Kim
Michael Luca

Nowcasting the Local Economy: Using Yelp Data to Measure Economic Activity
w23984 Luigi Bocola
Guido Lorenzoni

Financial Crises, Dollarization, and Lending of Last Resort in Open Economies
w23986 Bruno Biais
Johan Hombert
Pierre-Olivier Weill

Incentive Constrained Risk Sharing, Segmentation, and Asset Pricing
w23988 Emine Boz
Gita Gopinath
Mikkel Plagborg-Møller

Global Trade and the Dollar
w23996 Stefano DellaVigna
Matthew Gentzkow

Uniform Pricing in US Retail Chains
w23998 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Byoungchan Lee

A Note on Variance Decomposition with Local Projections
w24001 Erik Brynjolfsson
Daniel Rock
Chad Syverson

Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics
w23960 Matteo Cacciatore
Romain Duval
Giuseppe Fiori
Fabio Ghironi

Market Reforms at the Zero Lower Bound
w23964 Bruno Pellegrino
Luigi Zingales

Diagnosing the Italian Disease
w23968 Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

Identification in Macroeconomics
w23970 Burak R. Uras
Ping Wang

Production Flexibility, Misallocation and Total Factor Productivity
w23977 Martín Uribe
The Neo-Fisher Effect in the United States and Japan
w23979 Margarida Duarte
Diego Restuccia

Relative Prices and Sectoral Productivity
w23942 Alessandro Dovis
Rishabh Kirpalani

Fiscal Rules, Bailouts, and Reputation in Federal Governments
w23943 Armin Falk
Anke Becker
Thomas Dohmen
Benjamin Enke
David B. Huffman
Uwe Sunde

Global Evidence on Economic Preferences
w23958 Marianne Andries
Valentin Haddad

Information Aversion
w23920 Jonathan A. Parker
Nicholas S. Souleles

Reported Preference vs. Revealed Preference: Evidence from the Propensity to Spend Tax Rebates
w23921 Anusha Chari
Peter Blair Henry
Racha Moussa

Does Capital Scarcity Matter?
w23928 Philippe Aghion
Benjamin F. Jones
Charles I. Jones

Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth
w23930 Emmanuel Farhi
Jean Tirole

Shadow Banking and the Four Pillars of Traditional Financial Intermediation
w23931 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

Why Some Times Are Different: Macroeconomic Policy and the Aftermath of Financial Crises
w23934 Davide Cantoni
Jeremiah Dittmar
Noam Yuchtman

Religious Competition and Reallocation: The Political Economy of Secularization in the Protestant Reformation
w23936 Raphaël Franck
Stelios Michalopoulos

Emigration during the French Revolution: Consequences in the Short and Longue Durée
w23937 T. Terry Cheung
Theodore Palivos
Ping Wang
Yin-Chi Wang
Chong K. Yip

Dynamic Trade, Endogenous Institutions and the Colonization of Hong Kong: A Staged Development Framework
w23938 Isaac Sorkin
Ranking Firms Using Revealed Preference
w23939 Pei-Ju Liao
Ping Wang
Yin-Chi Wang
Chong Kee Yip

Educational Choice, Rural-urban Migration and Economic Development
w23899 Jess Benhabib
Mark M. Spiegel

Sentiments and Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States
w23906 Alexandre Mas
Amanda Pallais

Labor Supply and the Value of Non-Work Time: Experimental Estimates from the Field
w23910 Andrei S. Gonçalves
Chen Xue
Lu Zhang

Does the Investment Model Explain Value and Momentum Simultaneously?
w23916 Douglas Gollin
Martina Kirchberger
David Lagakos

In Search of a Spatial Equilibrium in the Developing World
w23917 Ian Dew-Becker
Charles G. Nathanson

Directed Attention and Nonparametric Learning
w23919 Marina Halac
Pierre Yared

Fiscal Rules and Discretion under Self-Enforcement
w23875 Titan Alon
David Berger
Robert Dent
Benjamin Pugsley

Older and Slower: The Startup Deficit's Lasting Effects on Aggregate Productivity Growth
w23879 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Antonio Falato

The Loan Covenant Channel: How Bank Health Transmits to the Real Economy
w23884 Randall Wright
Philipp Kircher
Benoit Julîen
Veronica Guerrieri

Directed Search: A Guided Tour
w23841 Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
Andrea Ferrero
Alessandro Rebucci

International Credit Supply Shocks
w23844 Danny Yagan
Employment Hysteresis from the Great Recession
w23850 Arvind Krishnamurthy
Tyler Muir

How Credit Cycles across a Financial Crisis
w23853 Gene M. Grossman
Elhanan Helpman
Ezra Oberfield
Thomas Sampson

The Productivity Slowdown and the Declining Labor Share: A Neoclassical Exploration
w23854 Laura A. Bakkensen
Lint Barrage

Flood Risk Belief Heterogeneity and Coastal Home Price Dynamics: Going Under Water?
w23861 James Cloyne
Kilian Huber
Ethan Ilzetzki
Henrik Kleven

The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach
w23817 Pablo Kurlat
Florian Scheuer

Signaling to Experts
w23819 Carlos Garriga
Aaron Hedlund
Yang Tang
Ping Wang

Rural-Urban Migration, Structural Transformation, and Housing Markets in China
w23836 Fabio Ghironi
Macro Needs Micro
w23837 Roger E.A. Farmer
Giovanni Nicolò

Keynesian Economics without the Phillips Curve
w23806 Joao Guerreiro
Sergio Rebelo
Pedro Teles

Should Robots be Taxed?
w23766 V.V. Chari
Lawrence Christiano

Financialization in Commodity Markets
w23782 Nicholas Bloom
Charles I. Jones
John Van Reenen
Michael Webb

Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?
w23784 Alejandro Justiniano
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Andrea Tambalotti

The Mortgage Rate Conundrum
w23785 Francesco D’Acunto
Marcel Prokopczuk
Michael Weber

Historical Antisemitism, Ethnic Specialization, and Financial Development
w23787 Benjamin Hébert
Michael Woodford

Rational Inattention and Sequential Information Sampling
w23789 Alan J. Auerbach
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Fiscal Stimulus and Fiscal Sustainability
w23790 Kyle F. Herkenhoff
Lee E. Ohanian
Edward C. Prescott

Tarnishing the Golden and Empire States: Land-Use Restrictions and the U.S. Economic Slowdown
w23794 Joseph E. Stiglitz
Structural Transformation, Deep Downturns, and Government Policy
w23796 David Berger
Ian Dew-Becker
Stefano Giglio

Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks
w23801 John Asker
Allan Collard-Wexler
Jan De Loecker

Market Power, Production (Mis)Allocation and OPEC
w23802 Atif Mian
Amir Sufi
Emil Verner

How do Credit Supply Shocks Affect the Real Economy? Evidence from the United States in the 1980s
w23750 Ernesto Pasten
Raphael Schoenle
Michael Weber

Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations
w23754 Jeffrey A. Frankel
Ayako Saiki

Does It Matter If Statistical Agencies Frame the Month's CPI Reporton a 1-Month or 12-month Basis?
w23731 R. Jason Faberman
Andreas I. Mueller
Ayşegül Şahin
Giorgio Topa

Job Search Behavior among the Employed and Non-Employed
w23732 Yves Achdou
Jiequn Han
Jean-Michel Lasry
Pierre-Louis Lions
Benjamin Moll

Income and Wealth Distribution in Macroeconomics: A Continuous-Time Approach
w23733 Randall Akee
Maggie R. Jones
Sonya R. Porter

Race Matters: Income Shares, Income Inequality, and Income Mobility for All U.S. Races
w23740 Stefania Albanesi
Giacomo De Giorgi
Jaromir Nosal

Credit Growth and the Financial Crisis: A New Narrative
w23741 Russell Cooper
Guozhong Zhu

Household Finance in China
w23743 Stefania Albanesi
Ayşegül Şahin

The Gender Unemployment Gap
w23676 Jose Maria Barrero
Nicholas Bloom
Ian Wright

Short and Long Run Uncertainty
w23685 Francis X. Diebold
Laura Liu
Kamil Yilmaz

Commodity Connectedness
w23687 Jan De Loecker
Jan Eeckhout

The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications
w23688 Russell Cooper
Moritz Meyer
Immo Schott

The Employment and Output Effects of Short-Time Work in Germany
w23693 John Haltiwanger
Henry Hyatt
Erika McEntarfer

Who Moves Up the Job Ladder?
w23694 Greg Kaplan
Kurt Mitman
Giovanni L. Violante

The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence
w23701 Raphaël Franck
Oded Galor

Industrial Development and Long-Run Prosperity
w23704 João F. Gomes
Marco Grotteria
Jessica A. Wachter

Cyclical Dispersion in Expected Defaults
w23706 Andreas Fuster
Stephanie H. Lo
Paul S. Willen

The Time-Varying Price of Financial Intermediation in the Mortgage Market
w23707 Mark Gertler
Rethinking the Power of Forward Guidance: Lessons from Japan
w23712 Filip Novokmet
Thomas Piketty
Gabriel Zucman

From Soviets to Oligarchs: Inequality and Property in Russia, 1905-2016
w23716 Thomas Drechsel
Silvana Tenreyro

Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies
w23725 Jasmina Arifovic
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Learning to Live in a Liquidity Trap
w23647 Thorsten Drautzburg
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Pablo Guerrón-Quintana

Political Distribution Risk and Aggregate Fluctuations
w23652 Andrew Caplin
Mark Dean
John Leahy

Rationally Inattentive Behavior: Characterizing and Generalizing Shannon Entropy
w23654 Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti
Anil Kashyap

Which Banks Recover From Large Adverse Shocks?
w23655 Bruce D. Meyer
James X. Sullivan

Consumption and Income Inequality in the U.S. Since the 1960s
w23658 François Gourio
Anil K. Kashyap
Jae Sim

The Tradeoffs in Leaning Against the Wind
w23665 Scott R. Baker
Stephanie Johnson
Lorenz Kueng

Shopping for Lower Sales Tax Rates
w23666 Lucia S. Foster
Cheryl A. Grim
John Haltiwanger
Zoltan Wolf

Macro and Micro Dynamics of Productivity: From Devilish Details to Insights
w23672 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Serena Ng

Level and Volatility Factors in Macroeconomic Data
w23675 Seth G. Benzell
Laurence J. Kotlikoff
Guillermo LaGarda

Simulating Business Cash Flow Taxation: An Illustration Based on the "Better Way" Corporate Tax Reform
w23636 Andrés Erosa
Luisa Fuster
Gueorgui Kambourov
Richard Rogerson

Hours, Occupations, and Gender Differences in Labor Market Outcomes
w23625 Victor Stango
Joanne Yoong
Jonathan Zinman

Quicksand or Bedrock for Behavioral Economics? Assessing Foundational Empirical Questions
w23598 Zhuo Chen
Zhiguo He
Chun Liu

The Financing of Local Government in China: Stimulus Loan Wanes and Shadow Banking Waxes
w23599 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Tano Santos

Institutions and Political Party Systems: The Euro Case
w23605 Francesco Bianchi
Leonardo Melosi

The Dire Effects of the Lack of Monetary and Fiscal Coordination
w23606 Charles Angelucci
Simone Meraglia
Nico Voigtländer

The Medieval Roots of Inclusive Institutions: From the Norman Conquest of England to the Great Reform Act
w23608 Michael Bailey
Ruiqing (Rachel) Cao
Theresa Kuchler
Johannes Stroebel
Arlene Wong

Measuring Social Connectedness
w23614 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

A Risk-centric Model of Demand Recessions and Macroprudential Policy
w23616 Sumit Agarwal
J. Bradford Jensen
Ferdinando Monte

The Geography of Consumption
w23570 Efraim Benmelech
Adam Guren
Brian T. Melzer

Making the House a Home: The Stimulative Effect of Home Purchases on Consumption and Investment
w23577 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Geographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Spending Multipliers: What Have We Learned?
w23580 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Mauricio Ulate

The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output
w23581 Giulia Brancaccio
Myrto Kalouptsidi
Theodore Papageorgiou

Geography, Search Frictions and Endogenous Trade Costs
w23583 Germán Gutiérrez
Thomas Philippon

Declining Competition and Investment in the U.S.
w23586 Sebastian Di Tella
Optimal Regulation of Financial Intermediaries
w23592 Juan Carlos Conesa
Timothy J. Kehoe

Productivity, Taxes, and Hours Worked in Spain: 1970-2015
w23552 Mark Aguiar
Mark Bils
Kerwin Kofi Charles
Erik Hurst

Leisure Luxuries and the Labor Supply of Young Men
w23533 Sun Ling Wang
Eldon Ball
Richard Nehring
Ryan Williams
Truong Chau

Impacts of Climate Change and Extreme Weather on U.S. Agricultural Productivity: Evidence and Projection
w23543 John G. Fernald
Robert E. Hall
James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009
w23546 Nittai K. Bergman
Rajkamal Iyer
Richard T. Thakor

The Effect of Cash Injections: Evidence from the 1980s Farm Debt Crisis
w23547 Robert E. Lucas
Jr.

What Was the Industrial Revolution?
w23511 Bruce Carlin
William Mann

Finance, farms, and the Fed's early years
w23521 Francesco Bianchi
Giovanni Nicolò

A Generalized Approach to Indeterminacy in Linear Rational Expectations Models
w23512 Efraim Benmelech
Nittai K. Bergman

Credit Market Freezes
w23515 Dean Corbae
Pablo D'Erasmo

Reorganization or Liquidation: Bankruptcy Choice and Firm Dynamics
w23520 C. Justin Cook
Jason M. Fletcher

High School Genetic Diversity and Later-life Student Outcomes: Micro-level Evidence from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study
w23485 John Haltiwanger
Henry Hyatt
Lisa B. Kahn
Erika McEntarfer

Cyclical Job Ladders by Firm Size and Firm Wage
w23494 SeHyoun Ahn
Greg Kaplan
Benjamin Moll
Thomas Winberry
Christian Wolf

When Inequality Matters for Macro and Macro Matters for Inequality
w23509 Aleh Tsyvinski
Nicolas Werquin

Generalized Compensation Principle
w23476 Andrea L. Eisfeldt
Hanno Lustig
Lei Zhang

Complex Asset Markets
w23480 Michael D. Bauer
James D. Hamilton

Robust Bond Risk Premia
w23456 Pol Antràs
Alonso de Gortari

On the Geography of Global Value Chains
w23448 Edward Herbst
Frank Schorfheide

Tempered Particle Filtering
w23449 Anthony A. DeFusco
Charles G. Nathanson
Eric Zwick

Speculative Dynamics of Prices and Volume
w23451 Adrien Auclert
Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel
w23457 Maryam Farboodi
Laura Veldkamp

Long Run Growth of Financial Technology
w23411 Elif C. Arbatli
Steven J. Davis
Arata Ito
Naoko Miake
Ikuo Saito

Policy Uncertainty In Japan
w23418 Charles F. Manski
Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise
w23419 Elias Albagli
Christian Hellwig
Aleh Tsyvinski

Imperfect Financial Markets and Shareholder Incentives in Partial and General Equilibrium
w23422 Diego Restuccia
Richard Rogerson

The Causes and Costs of Misallocation
w23423 Gideon Bornstein
Per Krusell
Sergio Rebelo

Lags, Costs, and Shocks: An Equilibrium Model of the Oil Industry
w23424 Ali Ozdagli
Michael Weber

Monetary Policy through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market
w23429 James D. Hamilton
Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter
w23401 Oleg Itskhoki
Dmitry Mukhin

Exchange Rate Disconnect in General Equilibrium
w23377 Kaiji Chen
Jue Ren
Tao Zha

The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China
w23389 Juan Carlos Conesa
Daniela Costa
Parisa Kamali
Timothy J. Kehoe
Vegard M. Nygard
Gajendran Raveendranathan
Akshar Saxena

Macroeconomic Effects of Medicare
w23378 Margaret McMillan
Dani Rodrik
Claudia Sepulveda

Structural Change, Fundamentals and Growth: A Framework and Case Studies
w23379 George-Marios Angeletos
Chen Lian

Dampening General Equilibrium: From Micro to Macro
w23387 Michael E. Waugh
Firm Dynamics and Immigration: The Case of High-Skilled Immigration
w23391 Christopher L. House
Ana-Maria Mocanu
Matthew D. Shapiro

Stimulus Effects of Investment Tax Incentives: Production versus Purchases
w23394 Kewei Hou
Chen Xue
Lu Zhang

Replicating Anomalies
w23345 Denis Gorea
Virgiliu Midrigan

Liquidity Constraints in the U.S. Housing Market
w23349 K.E. McConnell
Juha V. Siikamäki
V. Kerry Smith

A Strategy for Evaluating the Opportunity Cost of Time Estimates from New Choice Margins
w23354 Philippe Aghion
Nicholas Bloom
Brian Lucking
Raffaella Sadun
John Van Reenen

Turbulence, Firm Decentralization and Growth in Bad Times
w23357 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Dmitri Koustas

Consumption Inequality and the Frequency of Purchases
w23368 Thomas Piketty
Li Yang
Gabriel Zucman

Capital Accumulation, Private Property and Rising Inequality in China, 1978-2015
w23369 David Byrne
Stephen Oliner
Daniel Sichel

Prices of High-Tech Products, Mismeasurement, and Pace of Innovation
w23370 Laura Alfaro
Fabio Kanczuk

Fiscal Rules and Sovereign Default
w23371 Fatih Guvenen
Greg Kaplan
Jae Song
Justin Weidner

Lifetime Incomes in the United States over Six Decades
w23339 José-María Da-Rocha
Marina Mendes Tavares
Diego Restuccia

Policy Distortions and Aggregate Productivity with Endogenous Establishment-Level Productivity
w23343 Stephen Broadberry
John Joseph Wallis

Growing, Shrinking, and Long Run Economic Performance: Historical Perspectives on Economic Development
w23324 Fatih Guvenen
Raymond J. Mataloni
Jr.
Dylan G. Rassier
Kim J. Ruhl

Offshore Profit Shifting and Domestic Productivity Measurement
w23332 Lorenzo Caliendo
Fernando Parro
Aleh Tsyvinski

Distortions and the Structure of the World Economy
w23323 Hunter Clark
Maxim Pinkovskiy
Xavier Sala-i-Martin

China's GDP Growth May be Understated
w23311 Eric T. Swanson
Measuring the Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance and Asset Purchases on Financial Markets
w23312 Mark Aguiar
Satyajit Chatterjee
Harold Cole
Zachary Stangebye

Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited: The Art of the Desperate Deal
w23314 Cristina Arellano
Yan Bai
Luigi Bocola

Sovereign Default Risk and Firm Heterogeneity
w23321 Fatih Guvenen
Greg Kaplan

Top Income Inequality in the 21st Century: Some Cautionary Notes
w23294 Mel Win Khaw
Ziang Li
Michael Woodford

Risk Aversion as a Perceptual Bias
w23301 Oded Galor
Marc Klemp

Roots of Autocracy
w23302 Adriano A. Rampini
S. Viswanathan

Financial Intermediary Capital
w23304 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Rupal Kamdar

The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve
w23306 Martin S. Feldstein
Underestimating the Real Growth of GDP, Personal Income and Productivity
w23266 Manuel Amador
Javier Bianchi
Luigi Bocola
Fabrizio Perri

Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound
w23270 Martin Beraja
Andreas Fuster
Erik Hurst
Joseph Vavra

Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy
w23281 Emmanuel Farhi
Iván Werning

Monetary Policy, Bounded Rationality, and Incomplete Markets
w23283 Sang Yoon Lee
Yongseok Shin

Horizontal and Vertical Polarization: Task-Specific Technological Change in a Multi-Sector Economy
w23285 Daron Acemoglu
Pascual Restrepo

Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets
w23287 Òscar Jordà
Björn Richter
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis
w23245 Nuno Coimbra
Hélène Rey

Financial Cycles with Heterogeneous Intermediaries
w23249 Juliane Begenau
Berardino Palazzo

Firm Selection and Corporate Cash Holdings
w23253 Joan Hamory Hicks
Marieke Kleemans
Nicholas Y. Li
Edward Miguel

Reevaluating Agricultural Productivity Gaps with Longitudinal Microdata
w23254 Xavier Gabaix
David Laibson

Myopia and Discounting
w23221 Martin S. Feldstein
Why is Growth better in the United States than in other Industrial Countries
w23225 Sydney C. Ludvigson
Sai Ma
Serena Ng

Shock Restricted Structural Vector-Autoregressions
w23226 Lu Zhang
The Investment CAPM
w23228 Ulrike Malmendier
Stefan Nagel
Zhen Yan

The Making of Hawks and Doves: Inflation Experiences on the FOMC
w23233 Ellen R. McGrattan
Intangible Capital and Measured Productivity
w23234 Maryam Farboodi
Gregor Jarosch
Robert Shimer

The Emergence of Market Structure
w23235 Patrick J. Kehoe
Elena Pastorino

Financial Markets and Fiscal Unions
w23207 Nathan Nunn
Raul Sanchez de la Sierra

Why Being Wrong can be Right: Magical Warfare Technologies and the Persistence of False Beliefs
w23216 Efraim Benmelech
Carola Frydman
Dimitris Papanikolaou

Financial Frictions and Employment during the Great Depression
w23217 Ellen R. McGrattan
Andrea Waddle

The Impact of Brexit on Foreign Investment and Production
w23194 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

China's Gradualistic Economic Approach and Financial Markets
w23196 Jacob Moscona
Nathan Nunn
James A. Robinson

Keeping It in the Family: Lineage Organization and the Scope of Trust in Sub-Saharan Africa
w23197 Raphaël Franck
Oded Galor

Technology-Skill Complementarity in Early Phases of Industrialization
w23199 Quamrul H. Ashraf
Oded Galor

The Macrogenoeconomics of Comparative Development
w23202 Jose Asturias
Sewon Hur
Timothy J. Kehoe
Kim J. Ruhl

Firm Entry and Exit and Aggregate Growth
w23172 Joshua K. Hausman
Paul W. Rhode
Johannes F. Wieland

Recovery from the Great Depression: The Farm Channel in Spring 1933
w23176 Xavier Giroud
Holger M. Mueller

Firms' Internal Networks and Local Economic Shocks
w23182 Andreas Fagereng
Luigi Guiso
Luigi Pistaferri

Firm-Related Risk and Precautionary Saving Response
w23184 Lubos Pastor
Pietro Veronesi

Political Cycles and Stock Returns
w23185 Nir Jaimovich
Henry E. Siu

High-Skilled Immigration, STEM Employment, and Non-Routine-Biased Technical Change
w23186 Ulrich K. Müller
Mark W. Watson

Long-Run Covariability
w23163 Fatih Guvenen
Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
Jae Song
Motohiro Yogo

Worker Betas: Five Facts about Systematic Earnings Risk
w23140 Mert Demirer
Francis X. Diebold
Laura Liu
Kamil Yılmaz

Estimating Global Bank Network Connectedness
w23142 André Kurmann
Eric Sims

Revisions in Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks
w23143 David Berger
Joseph Vavra

Shocks vs. Responsiveness: What Drives Time-Varying Dispersion?
w23145 David Rezza Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem
w23149 Yusuf Soner Baskaya
Julian di Giovanni
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Mehmet Fatih Ulu

International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles
w23146 Raymond Owens III
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
Pierre-Daniel Sarte

Rethinking Detroit
w23147 Christopher L. House
Christian Proebsting
Linda L. Tesar

Austerity in the Aftermath of the Great Recession
w23154 Andrew Fieldhouse
Karel Mertens
Morten O. Ravn

The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar US Housing Credit Policy
w23156 Roger E.A. Farmer
The End of Alchemy: A Review Essay
w23158 Martin Eichenbaum
Benjamin K. Johannsen
Sergio Rebelo

Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates
w23160 Olivier Blanchard
Guido Lorenzoni
Jean-Paul L'Huillier

Short-Run Effects of Lower Productivity Growth. A Twist on the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis
w23167 Kyriakos T. Chousakos
Gary B. Gorton

Bank Health Post-Crisis
w23132 Xinshen Diao
Margaret McMillan
Dani Rodrik

The Recent Growth Boom in Developing Economies: A Structural Change Perspective
w23127 Ricardo J. Caballero
Emmanuel Farhi
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

Rents, Technical Change, and Risk Premia: Accounting for Secular Trends in Interest Rates, Returns on Capital, Earning Yields, and Factor Shares
w23128 Diego Restuccia
Raul Santaeulalia-Llopis

Land Misallocation and Productivity
w23129 Joel M. David
Venky Venkateswaran

The Sources of Capital Misallocation
w23137 Ufuk Akcigit
John Grigsby
Tom Nicholas

Immigration and the Rise of American Ingenuity
w23136 Sushant Acharya
Jess Benhabib
Zhen Huo

The Anatomy of Sentiment-Driven Fluctuations
w23133 Peter Chen
Loukas Karabarbounis
Brent Neiman

The Global Rise of Corporate Saving
w23095 Jess Benhabib
Jesse Perla
Christopher Tonetti

Reconciling Models of Diffusion and Innovation: A Theory of the Productivity Distribution and Technology Frontier
w23101 Benjamin Faber
Thibault Fally

Firm Heterogeneity in Consumption Baskets: Evidence from Home and Store Scanner Data
w23102 Chinhui Juhn
Kristin McCue
Holly Monti
Brooks Pierce

Firm Performance and the Volatility of Worker Earnings
w23103 Jeremy Greenwood
Nezih Guner
Guillaume Vandenbroucke

Family Economics Writ Large
w23109 Roger E.A. Farmer
Post Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Theory
w23111 Daniel J. Benjamin
Kristen Cooper
Ori Heffetz
Miles S. Kimball

Challenges in Constructing a Survey-Based Well-Being Index
w23066 Francesco D’Acunto
Ryan Liu
Carolin Pflueger
Michael Weber

Flexible Prices and Leverage
w23074 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments
w23075 Robert J. Shiller
Narrative Economics
w23077 Daron Acemoglu
Pascual Restrepo

Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation
w23081 Tom Vogl
Aggregating the Fertility Transition: Intergenerational Dynamics in Quality and Quantity
w23083 Thomas Philippon
Pierre Pessarossi
Boubacar Camara

Backtesting European Stress Tests
w23039 Tasso Adamopoulos
Loren Brandt
Jessica Leight
Diego Restuccia

Misallocation, Selection and Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis with Panel Data from China
w23047 Ufuk Akcigit
John Grigsby
Tom Nicholas

The Rise of American Ingenuity: Innovation and Inventors of the Golden Age
w23048 John Kennan
Open Borders in the European Union and Beyond: Migration Flows and Labor Market Implications
w23055 Douglas W. Diamond
Yunzhi Hu
Raghuram G. Rajan

Pledgeability, Industry Liquidity, and Financing Cycles
w23057 Victor Stango
Joanne Yoong
Jonathan Zinman

The Quest for Parsimony in Behavioral Economics: New Methods and Evidence on Three Fronts
w23030 Charles G. Nathanson
Eric Zwick

Arrested Development: Theory and Evidence of Supply-Side Speculation in the Housing Market

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