NBER Papers in Economic Fluctuations and Growth

w21634 Ross Levine
Chen Lin
Lai Wei

Insider Trading and Innovation

w21633 Scott R. Baker
Nicholas Bloom
Steven J. Davis

Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty

w21630 Kristopher Gerardi
Kyle F. Herkenhoff
Lee E. Ohanian
Paul S. Willen

Can't Pay or Won't Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default

w21626 Vadim Elenev
Tim Landvoigt
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Phasing Out the GSEs

w21624 James Feyrer
Erin T. Mansur
Bruce Sacerdote

Geographic Dispersion of Economic Shocks: Evidence from the Fracking Revolution

w21614 Mariana García-Schmidt
Michael Woodford

Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect-Foresight Analysis

w21604 Christopher J. Ruhm
Health Effects of Economic Crises

w21599 Louis Phaneuf
Eric R. Sims
Jean Gardy Victor

Inflation, Output, and Markup Dynamics with Forward-Looking Wage and Price Setters

w21595 Diego A. Comin
Danial Lashkari
Martí Mestieri

Structural Change with Long-run Income and Price Effects

w21581 Atif R. Mian
Amir Sufi
Emil Verner

Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide

w21575 Mete Kilic
Jessica A. Wachter

Risk, Unemployment, and the Stock Market: A Rare-Event-Based Explanation of Labor MarketVolatility

w21569 Jeremy C. Stein
Adi Sunderam

Gradualism in Monetary Policy: A Time-Consistency Problem?

w21567 Sumit Agarwal
Souphala Chomsisengphet
Neale Mahoney
Johannes Stroebel

Do Banks Pass Through Credit Expansions? The Marginal Profitability of Consumer Lending During the Great Recession

w21566 Steven N. Durlauf
Salvador Navarro
David A. Rivers

Model Uncertainty and the Effect of Shall-Issue Right-to-Carry Laws on Crime

w21558 Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Bent Sorensen
Carolina Villegas-Sanchez
Vadym Volosovych
Sevcan Yesiltas

How to Construct Nationally Representative Firm Level data from the ORBIS Global Database

w21550 Andrew B. Abel
Crowding Out in Ricardian Economies

w21549 Andrew B. Abel
The Analytics of Investment, q, and Cash Flow

w21547 William D. Nordhaus
Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth

w21539 Nir Jaimovich
Sergio Rebelo
Arlene Wong

Trading Down and the Business Cycle

w21538 Dirk Krueger
Alexander Ludwig

On the Optimal Provision of Social Insurance: Progressive Taxation versus Education Subsidies in General Equilibrium

w21532 Kyle F. Herkenhoff
Lee E. Ohanian

The Impact of Foreclosure Delay on U.S. Employment

w21524 Emmanuel Farhi
Xavier Gabaix

Optimal Taxation with Behavioral Agents

w21512 Sumit Agarwal
Gene Amromin
Souphala Chomsisengphet
Tomasz Piskorski
Amit Seru
Vincent Yao

Mortgage Refinancing, Consumer Spending, and Competition: Evidence from the Home Affordable Refinancing Program

w21508 Björn Brügemann
Pieter Gautier
Guido Menzio

Intra Firm Bargaining and Shapley Values

w21506 Stelios Michalopoulos
Alireza Naghavi
Giovanni Prarolo

Islam, Inequality and Pre-Industrial Comparative Development

w21498 Francesco Caselli
Miklós Koren
Milan Lisicky
Silvana Tenreyro

Diversification through Trade

w21495 Robert Shimer
Iván Werning

Efficiency and Information Transmission in Bilateral Trading

w21493 Guido Menzio
Nicholas Trachter

Equilibrium Price Dispersion Across and Within Stores

w21492 Marina Halac
Pierre Yared

Fiscal Rules and Discretion in a World Economy

w21486 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Leveraged Bubbles

w21480 Joel M. David
Ina Simonovska

Correlated Beliefs, Returns, and Stock Market Volatility

w21476 James D. Hamilton
Ethan S. Harris
Jan Hatzius
Kenneth D. West

The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present and Future

w21466 Paul Beaudry
Patrick Fève
Alain Guay
Franck Portier

When is Nonfundamentalness in VARs a Real Problem? An Application to News Shocks

w21458 Sari Kerr
William R. Kerr
Ramana Nanda

House Money and Entrepreneurship

w21456 Cristina Arellano
Andrew Atkeson
Mark Wright

External and Public Debt Crises

w21453 Gita Gopinath
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Loukas Karabarbounis
Carolina Villegas-Sanchez

Capital Allocation and Productivity in South Europe

w21449 Mila Getmansky
Peter A. Lee
Andrew W. Lo

Hedge Funds: A Dynamic Industry In Transition

w21448 Iván Werning
Incomplete Markets and Aggregate Demand

w21446 Jean-Pierre Dubé
Günter J. Hitsch
Peter E. Rossi

Income and Wealth Effects on Private-Label Demand: Evidence From the Great Recession

w21445 Tarek Alexander Hassan
Thomas Mertens
Tony Zhang

Not so Disconnected: Exchange Rates and the Capital Stock

w21444 Joseph E. Stiglitz
Towards a General Theory of Deep Downturns

w21433 Eric M. Leeper
Nora Traum
Todd B. Walker

Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass: Prior and Posterior Analysis

w21430 Jordi Galí
Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem Revisited

w21427 Olivier Blanchard
Gustavo Adler
Irineu de Carvalho Filho

Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?

w21426 Olivier Blanchard
Christopher J. Erceg
Jesper Lindé

Jump Starting the Euro Area Recovery: Would a Rise in Core Fiscal Spending Help the Periphery?

w21420 Julio Garín
Robert Lester
Eric Sims

On the Desirability of Nominal GDP Targeting

w21397 Anton Cheremukhin
Mikhail Golosov
Sergei Guriev
Aleh Tsyvinski

The Economy of People’s Republic of China from 1953

w21392 Guido Ascari
Louis Phaneuf
Eric Sims

On the Welfare and Cyclical Implications of Moderate Trend Inflation

w21390 Orazio Attanasio
Arlen Guarín
Carlos Medina
Costas Meghir

Long Term Impacts of Vouchers for Vocational Training: Experimental Evidence for Colombia

w21377 James E. Anderson
Mario Larch
Yoto V. Yotov

Growth and Trade with Frictions: A Structural Estimation Framework

w21376 Fatih Guvenen
Burhanettin Kuruscu
Satoshi Tanaka
David Wiczer

Multidimensional Skill Mismatch

w21369 Jonathan Parker
Why Don't Households Smooth Consumption? Evidence from a 25 Million Dollar Experiment

w21363 Xavier Gabaix
Jean-Michel Lasry
Pierre-Louis Lions
Benjamin Moll

The Dynamics of Inequality

w21358 Casey B. Mulligan
Fiscal Policies and the Prices of Labor: A Comparison of the U.K. and U.S.

w21349 Wolfgang Keller
Carol H. Shiue
Xin Wang

Capital Markets in China and Britain, 18th and 19th Century: Evidence from Grain Prices

w21344 Daron Acemoglu
Ufuk Akcigit
William Kerr

Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration

w21334 Juliane Begenau
Monika Piazzesi
Martin Schneider

Banks' Risk Exposures

w21328 Fernando Alvarez
Gadi Barlevy

Mandatory Disclosure and Financial Contagion

w21327 Joseph E. Stiglitz
The Measurement of Wealth: Recessions, Sustainability and Inequality

w21322 Pascal Michaillat
Emmanuel Saez

The Optimal Use of Government Purchases for Macroeconomic Stabilization

w21320 Manuel Adelino
Antoinette Schoar
Felipe Severino

Loan Originations and Defaults in the Mortgage Crisis: Further Evidence

w21318 Aviv Nevo
Arlene Wong

The Elasticity of Substitution Between Time and Market Goods: Evidence from the Great Recession

w21316 Atif Mian
Amir Sufi
Nasim Khoshkhou

Government Economic Policy, Sentiments, and Consumption

w21315 Orazio Attanasio
Peter Levell
Hamish Low
Virginia Sánchez-Marcos

Aggregating Elasticities: Intensive and Extensive Margins of Female Labour Supply

w21295 Eric A. Hanushek
Jens Ruhose
Ludger Woessmann

Human Capital Quality and Aggregate Income Differences: Development Accounting for U.S. States

w21294 Jess Benhabib
Xuewen Liu
Pengfei Wang

Sentiments, Financial Markets, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

w21284 Barbara M. Fraumeni
Michael S. Christian
Jon D. Samuels

The Accumulation of Human and Nonhuman Capital, Revisited

w21282 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

Core Inflation and Trend Inflation

w21280 Jaume Ventura
Hans-Joachim Voth

Debt into Growth: How Sovereign Debt Accelerated the First Industrial Revolution

w21273 Marina Azzimonti
Partisan Conflict and Private Investment

w21261 Fernando Ferreira
Joseph Gyourko

A New Look at the U.S. Foreclosure Crisis: Panel Data Evidence of Prime and Subprime Borrowers from 1997 to 2012

w21260 Nicola Gennaioli
Yueran Ma
Andrei Shleifer

Expectations and Investment

w21258 Robert C. Merton
Richard T. Thakor

Customers and Investors: A Framework for Understanding Financial Institutions

w21252 Regis Barnichon
Andrew Figura

Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation

w21251 Dominick Bartelme
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Linkages and Economic Development

w21247 Philippe Aghion
Ufuk Akcigit
Antonin Bergeaud
Richard Blundell
David Hémous

Innovation and Top Income Inequality

w21244 Chun Chang
Kaiji Chen
Daniel F. Waggoner
Tao Zha

Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy

w21241 Paul Beaudry
Dana Galizia
Franck Portier

Reviving the Limit Cycle View of Macroeconomic Fluctuations

w21238 Mark Huggett
Greg Kaplan

How Large is the Stock Component of Human Capital?

w21235 John Haltiwanger
Henry Hyatt
Erika McEntarfer

Cyclical Reallocation of Workers Across Employers by Firm Size and Firm Wage

w21228 Nicola Fuchs-Schuendeln
Tarek Alexander Hassan

Natural Experiments in Macroeconomics

w21220 Claudia R. Sahm
Matthew D. Shapiro
Joel Slemrod

Balance-Sheet Households and Fiscal Stimulus: Lessons from the Payroll Tax Cut and Its Expiration

w21203 Atif Mian
Amir Sufi

Household Debt and Defaults from 2000 to 2010: Facts from Credit Bureau Data

w21201 Miguel Faria-e-Castro
Joseba Martinez
Thomas Philippon

Runs versus Lemons: Information Disclosure and Fiscal Capacity

w21199 Jae Song
David J. Price
Fatih Guvenen
Nicholas Bloom
Till von Wachter

Firming Up Inequality

w21182 Ian Dew-Becker
Stefano Giglio
Anh Le
Marius Rodriguez

The Price of Variance Risk

w21179 Guillaume Rocheteau
Pierre-Olivier Weill
Tsz-Nga Wong

A Tractable Model of Monetary Exchange with Ex-post Heterogeneity

w21173 Robert E. Hall
Ricardo Reis

Maintaining Central-Bank Financial Stability under New-Style Central Banking

w21165 Francisco J. Buera
Joseph P. Kaboski
Richard Rogerson

Skill Biased Structural Change

w21155 Lilia Maliar
Serguei Maliar
John Taylor
Inna Tsener

A Tractable Framework for Analyzing a Class of Nonstationary Markov Models

w21154 Chang-Tai Hsieh
Enrico Moretti

Why Do Cities Matter? Local Growth and Aggregate Growth

w21151 S. Borağan Aruoba
Allan Drazen
Razvan Vlaicu

A Structural Model of Electoral Accountability

w21142 Charles I. Jones
The Facts of Economic Growth

w21118 Pablo Kurlat
Liquidity as Social Expertise

w21112 Hanming Fang
Quanlin Gu
Wei Xiong
Li-An Zhou

Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom

w21110 Fernando Alvarez
Francesco Lippi

Cash burns: An inventory model with a cash-credit choice

w21107 Francisco J. Buera
Joseph P. Kaboski
Yongseok Shin

Entrepreneurship and Financial Frictions: A Macro-Development Perspective

w21105 Roland Bénabou
Davide Ticchi
Andrea Vindigni

Forbidden Fruits: The Political Economy of Science, Religion, and Growth

w21100 Alan J. Auerbach
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Effects of Fiscal Shocks in a Globalized World

w21092 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Saten Kumar

How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence

w21091 Jeffrey D. Sachs
Seth G. Benzell
Guillermo LaGarda

Robots: Curse or Blessing? A Basic Framework

w21087 Klaus Desmet
Dávid Krisztián Nagy
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

The Geography of Development: Evaluating Migration Restrictions and Coastal Flooding

w21086 Nittai K. Bergman
Rajkamal Iyer
Richard T. Thakor

Financial Accelerator at Work: Evidence from Corn Fields

w21079 Cemal Eren Arbatli
Quamrul H. Ashraf
Oded Galor

The Nature of Conflict

w21076 Xavier Giroud
Holger M. Mueller

Firm Leverage and Unemployment during the Great Recession

w21074 David M. Byrne
Stephen D. Oliner
Daniel E. Sichel

How Fast are Semiconductor Prices Falling?

w21069 Philippe Aghion
Ufuk Akcigit
Angus Deaton
Alexandra Roulet

Creative Destruction and Subjective Wellbeing

w21065 John Kennan
Spatial Variation in Higher Education Financing and the Supply of College Graduates

w21064 Gian Luca Clementi
Berardino Palazzo

Investment and The Cross-Section of Equity Returns

w21056 Francesco Bianchi
Rare Events, Financial Crises, and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns

w21052 Roland Bénabou
Davide Ticchi
Andrea Vindigni

Religion and Innovation

w21039 Alan M. Taylor
Credit, Financial Stability, and the Macroeconomy

w21037 Edward L. Glaeser
Charles G. Nathanson

An Extrapolative Model of House Price Dynamics

w21035 Owen M. Zidar
Tax Cuts For Whom? Heterogeneous Effects of Income Tax Changes on Growth and Employment

w21030 Christopher L. Foote
Richard W. Ryan

Labor Market Polarization Over the Business Cycle

w21026 Juan Carlos Conesa
Timothy J. Kehoe

Gambling for Redemption and Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises

w21025 Michael Gelman
Shachar Kariv
Matthew D. Shapiro
Dan Silverman
Steven Tadelis

How Individuals Smooth Spending: Evidence from the 2013 Government Shutdown Using Account Data

w21021 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

New Evidence on the Impact of Financial Crises in Advanced Countries

w21018 Xinshen Diao
Margaret McMillan

Toward an Understanding of Economic Growth in Africa: A Re-Interpretation of the Lewis Model

w21016 Hang Bai
Kewei Hou
Howard Kung
Lu Zhang

The CAPM Strikes Back? An Investment Model with Disasters

w21010 Andrei A. Levchenko
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

TFP, News, and "Sentiments:'" The International Transmission of Business Cycles

w21007 Erik Hurst
Benjamin J. Keys
Amit Seru
Joseph S. Vavra

Regional Redistribution Through the U.S. Mortgage Market

w21006 Chang-Tai Hsieh
Zheng (Michael) Song

Grasp the Large, Let Go of the Small: The Transformation of the State Sector in China

w21001 Andrew Caplin
John Leahy
Filip Matějka

Social Learning and Selective Attention

w20994 Jonathan Heathcote
Fabrizio Perri

Wealth and Volatility

w20973 John Ameriks
Joseph S. Briggs
Andrew Caplin
Matthew D. Shapiro
Christopher Tonetti

Long-Term Care Utility and Late in Life Saving

w20972 John Ameriks
Andrew Caplin
Minjoon Lee
Matthew D. Shapiro
Christopher Tonetti

The Wealth of Wealthholders

w20963 Stefano Giglio
Bryan T. Kelly
Seth Pruitt

Systemic Risk and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Evaluation

w20957 Jennifer N. Carpenter
Fangzhou Lu
Robert F. Whitelaw

The Real Value of China's Stock Market

w20947 Atif R. Mian
Amir Sufi

Fraudulent Income Overstatement on Mortgage Applications during the Credit Expansion of 2002 to 2005

w20941 Seth G. Benzell
Laurence J. Kotlikoff
Guillermo LaGarda
Jeffrey D. Sachs

Robots Are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement

w20939 Robert E. Hall
Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

Measuring Job-Finding Rates and Matching Efficiency with Heterogeneous Jobseekers

w20935 Dani Rodrik
Premature Deindustrialization

w20933 Jaume Ventura
Alberto Martin

The International Transmission of Credit Bubbles: Theory and Policy

w20931 Daron Acemoglu
Asuman Ozdaglar
Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi

Networks, Shocks, and Systemic Risk

w20926 Jerry Tsai
Jessica A. Wachter

Disaster Risk and its Implications for Asset Pricing

w20919 David N. Weil
Capital and Wealth in the 21st Century

w20913 Fatih Guvenen
Fatih Karahan
Serdar Ozkan
Jae Song

What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Risk?

w20898 Pranjul Bhandari
Jeffrey A. Frankel

Nominal GDP Targeting for Developing Countries

w20885 Sara Lowes
Nathan Nunn
James A. Robinson
Jonathan Weigel

Understanding Ethnic Identity in Africa: Evidence from the Implicit Association Test (IAT)

w20884 Marcus Hagedorn
Iourii Manovskii
Kurt Mitman

The Impact of Unemployment Benefit Extensions on Employment: The 2014 Employment Miracle?

w20883 Christopher Phelan
Aldo Rustichini

Pareto Efficiency and Identity

w20882 Alisdair McKay
Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

The Power of Forward Guidance Revisited

w20881 Jesse Perla
Christopher Tonetti
Michael E. Waugh

Equilibrium Technology Diffusion, Trade, and Growth

w20874 Alejandro Justiniano
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Andrea Tambalotti

Credit Supply and the Housing Boom

w20872 Alessandra Fogli
Fabrizio Perri

Macroeconomic Volatility and External Imbalances

w20865 Daron Acemoglu
Asuman Ozdaglar
Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi

Microeconomic Origins of Macroeconomic Tail Risks

w20863 Ross Levine
Chen Lin
Wensi Xie

Spare Tire? Stock Markets, Banking Crises, and Economic Recoveries

w20862 Martin S. Feldstein
Ending the Euro Crisis?

w20858 Rui Albuquerque
Martin Eichenbaum
Dimitris Papanikolaou
Sergio Rebelo

Long-run Bulls and Bears

w20857 Rabah Arezki
Valerie A. Ramey
Liugang Sheng

News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries

w20856 Harold L. Cole
Jeremy Greenwood
Juan M. Sanchez

Why Doesn't Technology Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?

w20855 Ariel Burstein
Eduardo Morales
Jonathan Vogel

Accounting for Changes in Between-Group Inequality

w20848 Manuel Adelino
Antoinette Schoar
Felipe Severino

Loan Originations and Defaults in the Mortgage Crisis: The Role of the Middle Class

w20845 Bryan Hong
Lorenz Kueng
Mu-Jeung Yang

Estimating Management Practice Complementarity between Decentralization and Performance Pay

w20838 Patrick Kline
Melissa Tartari

Bounding the Labor Supply Responses to a Randomized Welfare Experiment: A Revealed Preference Approach

w20831 Roger E.A. Farmer
Global Sunspots and Asset Prices in a Monetary Economy

w20823 Monika Piazzesi
Martin Schneider
Johannes Stroebel

Segmented Housing Search

w20819 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Viacheslav Sheremirov
Oleksandr Talavera

Price Setting in Online Markets: Does IT Click?

w20817 Fernando Alvarez
Francesco Lippi
Luigi Paciello

Monetary Shocks in Models with Inattentive Producers

w20813 Boyan Jovanovic
Viktor Tsyrennikov

Trading on Sunspots

w20807 George-Marios Angeletos
Fabrice Collard
Harris Dellas

Quantifying Confidence

w20805 Anton Korinek
Damiano Sandri

Capital Controls or Macroprudential Regulation?

w20803 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Yuliy Sannikov

International Credit Flows and Pecuniary Externalities

w20796 Lars E.O. Svensson
Forward Guidance

w20786 Raquel Fernández
Alberto Martin

The Long and the Short of It: Sovereign Debt Crises and Debt Maturity

w20780 Mikhail Golosov
Aleh Tsyvinski
Nicolas Werquin

A Variational Approach to the Analysis of Tax Systems

w20770 Supreet Kaur
Nominal Wage Rigidity in Village Labor Markets

w20769 Joel M. David
Espen Henriksen
Ina Simonovska

The Risky Capital of Emerging Markets

w20766 Daron Acemoglu
James A. Robinson

The Rise and Decline of General Laws of Capitalism

w20758 Martin Goetz
Luc Laeven
Ross Levine

Does the Geographic Expansion of Bank Assets Reduce Risk?

w20753 Alexander Ljungqvist
Michael Smolyansky

To Cut or Not to Cut? On the Impact of Corporate Taxes on Employment and Income

w20751 Raphael Corbi
Elias Papaioannou
Paolo Surico

Federal Transfer Multipliers. Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Brazil

w20750 Tatyana Deryugina
Solomon M. Hsiang

Does the Environment Still Matter? Daily Temperature and Income in the United States

w20748 Gregory Colman
Dhaval Dave

Unemployment and Health Behaviors Over the Business Cycle: a Longitudinal View

w20746 Julien Hugonnier
Benjamin Lester
Pierre-Olivier Weill

Heterogeneity in Decentralized Asset Markets

w20744 Martin Lettau
Sydney C. Ludvigson
Sai Ma

Capital Share Risk and Shareholder Heterogeneity in U.S. Stock Pricing

w20743 Daron Acemoglu
Ufuk Akcigit
Douglas Hanley
William Kerr

Transition to Clean Technology

w20742 Charles I. Jones
Pareto and Piketty: The Macroeconomics of Top Income and Wealth Inequality

w20741 Christiane Baumeister
James D. Hamilton

Sign Restrictions, Structural Vector Autoregressions, and Useful Prior Information

w20737 Frederic S. Mishkin
Eugene N. White

Unprecedented Actions: The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis in Historical Perspective

w20730 Fiorella De Fiore
Harald Uhlig

Corporate Debt Structure and the Financial Crisis

w20725 Francesco Bianchi
Howard Kung

Growth, Slowdowns, and Recoveries

w20719 Valerie A. Ramey
Sarah Zubairy

Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from U.S. Historical Data

w20715 Laurence Ball
Sandeep Mazumder

A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment

w20710 Johannes Stroebel
Joseph Vavra

House Prices, Local Demand, and Retail Prices

w20707 Chiara Fratto
Harald Uhlig

Accounting for Post-Crisis Inflation and Employment: A Retro Analysis

w20704 Michael Greenstone
Alexandre Mas
Hoai-Luu Nguyen

Do Credit Market Shocks affect the Real Economy? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Great Recession and ‘Normal’ Economic Times

w20703 Frédéric Boissay
Russell Cooper

The Collateral Trap

w20698 Lisa B. Kahn
Erika McEntarfer

Employment Cyclicality and Firm Quality

w20691 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Alp Simsek
Wei Xiong

A Welfare Criterion for Models with Distorted Beliefs

w20688 Hans A. Holter
Dirk Krueger
Serhiy Stepanchuk

How Does Tax Progressivity and Household Heterogeneity Affect Laffer Curves?

w20684 Russell Cooper
Guozhong Zhu

Household Finance over the Life-Cycle: What does Education Contribute?

w20682 Kewei Hou
Chen Xue
Lu Zhang

A Comparison of New Factor Models

w20666 Robert B. Barsky
Susanto Basu
Keyoung Lee

Whither News Shocks?

w20665 Daron Acemoglu
Tarek A. Hassan
Ahmed Tahoun

The Power of the Street: Evidence from Egypt's Arab Spring

w20650 Russell Cooper
Antoine Camous

Monetary Policy and Debt Fragility

w20642 Jess Benhabib
Feng Dong
Pengfei Wang

Adverse Selection and Self-fulfilling Business Cycles

w20637 Charles I. Jones
Jihee Kim

A Schumpeterian Model of Top Income Inequality

w20633 Mikhail Golosov
Luigi Iovino

Social Insurance, Information Revelation, and Lack of Commitment

w20632 Davide Debortoli
Ricardo Nunes
Pierre Yared

Optimal Government Debt Maturity

w20628 Martin Gervais
Nir Jaimovich
Henry E. Siu
Yaniv Yedid-Levi

What Should I Be When I Grow Up? Occupations and Unemployment over the Life Cycle

w20623 Veronica Guerrieri
Robert Shimer

Markets with Multidimensional Private Information

w20621 Lorenz Kueng
Mu-Jeung Yang
Bryan Hong

Sources of Firm Life-Cycle Dynamics: Differentiating Size vs. Age Effects

w20617 Makoto Nakajima
José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

Credit, Bankruptcy, and Aggregate Fluctuations

w20616 George Alessandria
Horag Choi
Joseph P. Kaboski
Virgiliu Midrigan

Microeconomic Uncertainty, International Trade, and Aggregate Fluctuations

w20613 John H. Cochrane
Monetary Policy with Interest on Reserves

w20611 Hess Chung
Edward Herbst
Michael T. Kiley

Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Re-examination

w20610 Patrick Bolton
Neng Wang
Jinqiang Yang

Investment Under Uncertainty and the Value of Real and Financial Flexibility

w20608 Benjamin Lester
Guillaume Rocheteau
Pierre-Olivier Weill

Competing for Order Flow in OTC Markets

w20607 Luis Garicano
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Knowledge-based Hierarchies: Using Organizations to Understand the Economy

w20606 Loukas Karabarbounis
Brent Neiman

Capital Depreciation and Labor Shares Around the World: Measurement and Implications

w20601 Fabian Kindermann
Dirk Krueger

High Marginal Tax Rates on the Top 1%? Lessons from a Life Cycle Model with Idiosyncratic Income Risk

w20581 John Graham
Mark T. Leary
Michael R. Roberts

How Does Government Borrowing Affect Corporate Financing and Investment?

w20580 Casey B. Mulligan
The New Full-time Employment Taxes

w20575 Marco Del Negro
Raiden B. Hasegawa
Frank Schorfheide

Dynamic Prediction Pools: An Investigation of Financial Frictions and Forecasting Performance

w20573 Lant Pritchett
Lawrence H. Summers

Asiaphoria Meets Regression to the Mean

w20572 Philippe Martin
Thomas Philippon

Inspecting the Mechanism: Leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone

w20569 Alp Simsek
Andrei Shleifer
Matthew Rognlie

Investment Hangover and the Great Recession

w20568 Paul Beaudry
David A. Green
Benjamin M. Sand

In Search of Labor Demand

w20561 Benjamin J. Keys
Tomasz Piskorski
Amit Seru
Vincent Yao

Mortgage Rates, Household Balance Sheets, and the Real Economy

w20560 Fatih Guvenen
Greg Kaplan
Jae Song

The Glass Ceiling and The Paper Floor: Gender Differences among Top Earners, 1981-2012

w20555 Mark Bils
Peter J. Klenow
Benjamin A. Malin

Resurrecting the Role of the Product Market Wedge in Recessions

w20550 Paul Beaudry
Alban Moura
Franck Portier

Reexamining the Cyclical Behavior of the Relative Price of Investment

w20547 John Laitner
Daniel Silverman
Dmitriy Stolyarov

Annuitized Wealth and Post-Retirement Saving

w20538 Simeon Alder
David Lagakos
Lee Ohanian

Competitive Pressure and the Decline of the Rust Belt: A Macroeconomic Analysis

w20518 John Fernald
Mark M. Spiegel
Eric T. Swanson

Monetary Policy Effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR Model

w20517 Joseph E. Stiglitz
Reconstructing Macroeconomic Theory to Manage Economic Policy

w20442 Andrea L. Eisfeldt
Tyler Muir

Aggregate Issuance and Savings Waves

w20513 Stelios Michalopoulos
Elias Papaioannou

On the Ethnic Origins of African Development Chiefs and Pre-colonial Political Centralization

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Elhanan Helpman

Growth, Trade, and Inequality

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Moritz Schularick
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The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles

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International Trade and Intertemporal Substitution

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Saki Bigio

Banks, Liquidity Management and Monetary Policy

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John C. Williams

Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates

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John Haltiwanger

Labor Market Fluidity and Economic Performance

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Esther Duflo
Richard Hornbeck

(Measured) Profit is Not Welfare: Evidence from an Experiment on Bundling Microcredit and Insurance

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The Biocultural Origins of Human Capital Formation

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Matthias Kehrig
Martin Schneider

Slow to Hire, Quick to Fire: Employment Dynamics with Asymmetric Responses to News

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Daniel Keniston

Creative Destruction: Barriers to Urban Growth and the Great Boston Fire of 1872

w20457 Hyeok Jeong
Yong Kim
Iourii Manovskii

The Price of Experience

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Micro Data and Macro Technology

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Understanding Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of Black Swans

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Iván Werning

Positive Long Run Capital Taxation: Chamley-Judd Revisited

w20440 William Goetzmann
Elena Mamonova
Christophe Spaenjers

The Economics of Aesthetics and Three Centuries of Art Price Records

w20438 Oded Galor
Ömer Özak

The Agricultural Origins of Time Preference

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Tax News: Identifying Tax Expectations from Municipal Bonds with an Application to Household Consumption

w20427 Lucia Foster
Cheryl Grim
John Haltiwanger

Reallocation in the Great Recession: Cleansing or Not?

w20426 Edward L. Glaeser
Charles G. Nathanson

Housing Bubbles

w20423 Robert J. Gordon
A New Method of Estimating Potential Real GDP Growth: Implications for the Labor Market and the Debt/GDP Ratio

w20416 Andrew G. Atkeson
Andrea L. Eisfeldt
Pierre-Olivier Weill

Entry and Exit in OTC Derivatives Markets

w20406 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Oleksandr Talavera

Price Setting in Online Markets: Basic Facts, International Comparisons, and Cross-border Integration

w20404 Hugo A. Hopenhayn
On the Measure of Distortions

w20391 Peter Benczur
Cosmin L. Ilut

Evidence for Relational Contracts in Sovereign Bank Lending

w20390 Andrew Foerster
Juan Rubio-Ramírez
Daniel F. Waggoner
Tao Zha

Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models

w20379 John Komlos
Has Creative Destruction Become More Destructive?

w20377 Jianjun Miao
Pengfei Wang
Tao Zha

Liquidity Premia, Price-Rent Dynamics, and Business Cycles

w20370 Oliver D. Bunn
Robert J. Shiller

Changing Times, Changing Values: A Historical Analysis of Sectors within the US Stock Market 1872-2013

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Resource Allocation and Inefficiency in the Financial Sector

w20352 Solomon M. Hsiang
Amir S. Jina

The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence From 6,700 Cyclones

w20351 Nathaniel Hendren
The Inequality Deflator: Interpersonal Comparisons without a Social Welfare Function

w20346 Helios Herrera
Guillermo Ordoñez
Christoph Trebesch

Political Booms, Financial Crises

w20340 Joel M. David
Hugo A. Hopenhayn
Venky Venkateswaran

Information, Misallocation and Aggregate Productivity

w20339 Jens Hilscher
Alon Raviv
Ricardo Reis

Inflating Away the Public Debt? An Empirical Assessment

w20335 Alan Moreira
Alexi Savov

The Macroeconomics of Shadow Banking

w20328 YiLi Chien
Harold L. Cole
Hanno Lustig

Implications of Heterogeneity in Preferences, Beliefs and Asset Trading Technologies for the Macroeconomy

w20324 Alan S. Blinder
Mark W. Watson

Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration

w20319 David Backus
Axelle Ferriere
Stanley Zin

Risk and Ambiguity in Models of Business Cycles

w20314 Seunghoon Na
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martin Uribe
Vivian Z. Yue

A Model of the Twin Ds: Optimal Default and Devaluation

w20307 Guido Matias Cortes
Nir Jaimovich
Christopher J. Nekarda
Henry E. Siu

The Micro and Macro of Disappearing Routine Jobs: A Flows Approach

w20304 Orazio Attanasio
Britta Augsburg

Holy Cows or Cash Cows?

w20303 Frank Schorfheide
Dongho Song
Amir Yaron

Identifying Long-Run Risks: A Bayesian Mixed-Frequency Approach

w20298 Lorenz Kueng
Evgeny Yakovlev

How Persistent Are Consumption Habits? Micro-Evidence from Russia

w20291 Edward L. Glaeser
Joshua D. Gottlieb
Oren Ziv

Unhappy Cities

w20287 Morris A. Davis
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Housing, Finance and the Macroeconomy

w20277 Mark Aguiar
Manuel Amador
Emmanuel Farhi
Gita Gopinath

Coordination and Crisis in Monetary Unions

w20273 Kory Kroft
Fabian Lange
Matthew J. Notowidigdo
Lawrence F. Katz

Long-Term Unemployment and the Great Recession: The Role of Composition, Duration Dependence, and Non-Participation

w20263 S. Borağan Aruoba
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde

A Comparison of Programming Languages in Economics

w20260 David Neumark
Jennifer Muz

The "Business Climate" and Economic Inequality

w20255 Tri Vi Dang
Gary Gorton
Bengt Holmström
Guillermo Ordonez

Banks as Secret Keepers

w20254 Efraim Benmelech
Nittai Bergman
Anna Milanez
Vladimir Mukharlyamov

The Agglomeration of Bankruptcy

w20251 Raquel Fernández
Joyce Cheng Wong

Free to Leave? A Welfare Analysis of Divorce Regimes

w20246 Marcin Kacperczyk
Jaromir B. Nosal
Luminita Stevens

Investor Sophistication and Capital Income Inequality

w20244 Angus Deaton
Bettina Aten

Trying to Understand the PPPs in ICP2011: Why are the Results so Different?

w20237 Christoph E. Boehm
Christopher L. House

Optimal Taylor Rules in New Keynesian Models

w20224 Mark Gertler
Peter Karadi

Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs and Economic Activity

w20219 Mara P. Squicciarini
Nico Voigtländer

Human Capital and Industrialization: Evidence from the Age of Enlightenment

w20215 Ian W.R. Martin
Robert S. Pindyck

Averting Catastrophes: The Strange Economics of Scylla and Charybdis

w20214 Matthias Doepke
Fabrizio Zilibotti

Parenting with Style: Altruism and Paternalism in Intergenerational Preference Transmission

w20205 Rafael La Porta
Andrei Shleifer

Informality and Development

w20194 Francesco Bianchi
Cosmin Ilut

Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs

w20185 Laurence M. Ball
Long-Term Damage from the Great Recession in OECD Countries

w20183 Robert E. Hall
Quantifying the Lasting Harm to the U.S. Economy from the Financial Crisis

w20179 Roberto Perotti
Defense Government Spending Is Contractionary, Civilian Government Spending Is Expansionary

w20175 David Berger
Joseph Vavra

Consumption Dynamics During Recessions

w20168 Lorenzo Caliendo
Fernando Parro
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
Pierre-Daniel Sarte

The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy

w20165 Anil K Kashyap
Dimitrios P. Tsomocos
Alexandros P. Vardoulakis

How does macroprudential regulation change bank credit supply?

w20161 Kinda Hachem
Jing Cynthia Wu

Inflation Announcements and Social Dynamics

w20158 Charles Yuji Horioka
Are Americans and Indians More Altruistic than the Japanese and Chinese? Evidence from a New International Survey of Bequest Plans

w20157 Jess Benhabib
Alberto Bisin
Shenghao Zhu

The Wealth Distribution in Bewley Models with Investment Risk

w20155 Fernando Alvarez
Hervé Le Bihan
Francesco Lippi

Small and Large Price Changes and the Propagation of Monetary Shocks

w20154 Stefano Giglio
Matteo Maggiori
Johannes Stroebel

No-Bubble Condition: Model-free Tests in Housing Markets

w20152 Atif Mian
Amir Sufi

House Price Gains and U.S. Household Spending from 2002 to 2006

w20151 Emin Dinlersoz
Jeremy Greenwood
Henry Hyatt

Who do Unions Target? Unionization over the Life-Cycle of U.S. Businesses

w20133 Stefano Giglio
Matteo Maggiori
Johannes Stroebel

Very Long-Run Discount Rates

w20122 Christian Broda
Jonathan A. Parker

The Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008 and the Aggregate Demand for Consumption

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Fan Dora Xia

Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound

w20102 Nicholas Bloom
Renata Lemos
Raffaella Sadun
Daniela Scur
John Van Reenen

The New Empirical Economics of Management

w20101 Paul Beaudry
Dana Galizia
Franck Portier

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w20100 Paul S. Willen
Evaluating Policies to Prevent another Crisis: An Economist's View

w20099 Paul Bergin
Ling Feng
Ching-Yi Lin

Financial Frictions and Firm Dynamics

w20098 Charles F. Manski
Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics

w20087 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

Transfer Payments and the Macroeconomy: The Effects of Social Security Benefit Changes, 1952-1991

w20081 Francesco Bianchi
Cosmin L. Ilut
Martin Schneider

Uncertainty Shocks, Asset Supply and Pricing over the Business Cycle

w20080 Paul S. Willen
Lauren Lambie-Hanson
Lynn M. Fisher

The Role of Proximity in Foreclosure Externalities: Evidence from Condominiums

w20079 Dave Donaldson
Arnaud Costinot
Cory B. Smith

Evolving Comparative Advantage and the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Markets: Evidence from 1.7 Million Fields around the World

w20075 Tomas Philipson
Ralph Koijen
Harald Uhlig

Financial Health Economics

w20073 Greg Kaplan
Giovanni L. Violante
Justin Weidner

The Wealthy Hand-to-Mouth

w20070 John Y. Campbell
Carolin Pflueger
Luis M. Viceira

Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

w20066 Fredrik Andersson
John C. Haltiwanger
Mark J. Kutzbach
Henry O. Pollakowski
Daniel H. Weinberg

Job Displacement and the Duration of Joblessness: The Role of Spatial Mismatch

w20064 Daron Acemoglu
Simon Johnson

Disease and Development: A Reply to Bloom, Canning, and Fink

w20065 Raven Molloy
Christopher L. Smith
Abigail K. Wozniak

Declining Migration within the U.S.: The Role of the Labor Market

w20061 Julian di Giovanni
Andrei Levchenko
Isabelle Mejean

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w20060 Daron Acemoglu
Localized and Biased Technologies: Atkinson and Stiglitz's New View, Induced Innovations, and Directed Technological Change

w20058 Mariacristina De Nardi
Fang Yang

Bequests and Heterogeneity in Retirement Wealth

w20055 Marco Del Negro
Marc P. Giannoni
Frank Schorfheide

Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models

w20050 Abhijit Banerjee
Xin Meng
Tommaso Porzio
Nancy Qian

Aggregate Fertility and Household Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis using Micro Data

w20043 Florian Scheuer
Alexander Wolitzky

Capital Taxation under Political Constraints

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Benoît Mojon

Credit Risk in the Euro Area

w20040 Lawrence J. Christiano
Martin S. Eichenbaum
Mathias Trabandt

Understanding the Great Recession

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Jae W. Sim
Egon Zakrajšek

Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Investment Dynamics

w20031 Jesper Bagger
Rasmus Lentz

An Empirical Model of Wage Dispersion with Sorting

w20027 Gary B. Gorton
Andrew Metrick
Lei Xie

The Flight from Maturity

w20025 Vasco M. Carvalho
Nico Voigtländer

Input Diffusion and the Evolution of Production Networks

w20020 Casey B. Mulligan
The ACA: Some Unpleasant Welfare Arithmetic

w20010 Dolan Antenucci
Michael Cafarella
Margaret Levenstein
Christopher Ré
Matthew D. Shapiro

Using Social Media to Measure Labor Market Flows

w20004 Daron Acemoglu
Suresh Naidu
Pascual Restrepo
James A. Robinson

Democracy Does Cause Growth

w20003 Ron Alquist
Olivier Coibion

Commodity-Price Comovement and Global Economic Activity

w19997 Francisco J. Buera
Roberto Fattal-Jaef
Yongseok Shin

Anatomy of a Credit Crunch: From Capital to Labor Markets

w19994 Oleg Itskhoki
Benjamin Moll

Optimal Development Policies with Financial Frictions

w19990 Guido Menzio
Nicholas Trachter

Large and Small Sellers: A Theory of Equilibrium Price Dispersion with Sequential Search

w19988 Rasmus Lentz
Optimal Employment Contracts with Hidden Search

w19981 Jordi Gali
Luca Gambetti

The Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Bubbles: Some Evidence

w19973 Pablo Fajgelbaum
Edouard Schaal
Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel

Uncertainty Traps

w19972 Harold L. Cole
Thomas F. Cooley

Rating Agencies

w19970 Anton Korinek
Alp Simsek

Liquidity Trap and Excessive Leverage

w19966 Chang-Tai Hsieh
Benjamin A. Olken

The Missing "Missing Middle"

w19960 Jaume Ventura
Alberto Martin

Managing Credit Bubbles

w19958 Roger Farmer
Asset Prices in a Lifecycle Economy

w19951 Nicholas Bloom
Paul M. Romer
Stephen J. Terry
John Van Reenen

Trapped Factors and China's Impact on Global Growth

w19936 Casey B. Mulligan
The Economics of Work Schedules under the New Hours and Employment Taxes

w19941 Dennis Novy
Alan M. Taylor

Trade and Uncertainty

w19934 Anusha Chari
Peter Blair Henry

Learning From the Doers: Developing Country Lessons for Advanced Economy Growth

w19926 Gregory Clark
Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
Alan M. Taylor

The Growing Dependence of Britain on Trade during the Industrial Revolution

w19924 Alan M. Taylor
The Argentina Paradox: Microexplanations and Macropuzzles

w19917 Jack Favilukis
Sydney C. Ludvigson
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Foreign Ownership of U.S. Safe Assets: Good or Bad?

w19911 Alan J. Auerbach
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Fiscal Multipliers in Japan

w19909 Juan Carlos Conesa
Timothy J. Kehoe

Is It Too Late to Bail Out the Troubled Countries in the Eurozone?

w19900 Francois Gourio
Leena Rudanko

Can Intangible Capital Explain Cyclical Movements in the Labor Wedge?

w19899 Jonathan Heathcote
Kjetil Storesletten
Giovanni L. Violante

Optimal Tax Progressivity: An Analytical Framework

w19897 Michael Woodford
An Optimizing Neuroeconomic Model of Discrete Choice

w19895 Robert J. Gordon
The Demise of U.S. Economic Growth: Restatement, Rebuttal, and Reflections

w19894 Daron Acemoglu
Ufuk Akcigit
Murat Alp Celik

Young, Restless and Creative: Openness to Disruption and Creative Innovations

w19893 Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson
Miao Liu

Are Chinese Growth and Inflation Too Smooth? Evidence from Engel Curves

w19888 Matthias Doepke
Michèle Tertilt

Does Female Empowerment Promote Economic Development?

w19885 Zhiguo He
Arvind Krishnamurthy

A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Systemic Risk

w19877 Greg Kaplan
Guido Menzio

The Morphology of Price Dispersion

w19871 Robert E. Hall
High Discounts and High Unemployment

w19869 Raquel Fernández
Joyce C. Wong

Divorce Risk, Wages, and Working Wives: A Quantitative Life-Cycle Analysis of Female Labor Force Participation

w19864 Fatih Guvenen
Greg Kaplan
Jae Song

How Risky Are Recessions for Top Earners?

w19862 Philip J. Cook
Kenneth Dodge
George Farkas
Roland G. Fryer
Jonathan Guryan
Jens Ludwig
Susan Mayer
Harold Pollack
Laurence Steinberg

The (Surprising) Efficacy of Academic and Behavioral Intervention with Disadvantaged Youth: Results from a Randomized Experiment in Chicago

w19856 Isaac Ehrlich
Yong Yin

Equilibrium Health Spending and Population Aging in a Model of Endogenous Growth - Will the GDP Share of Health Spending Keep Rising?

w19854 Xavier Gabaix
Matteo Maggiori

International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics

w19850 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Marianna Kudlyak
John Mondragon

Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data

w19844 Raj Chetty
Nathaniel Hendren
Patrick Kline
Emmanuel Saez
Nicholas Turner

Is the United States Still a Land of Opportunity? Recent Trends in Intergenerational Mobility

w19843 Raj Chetty
Nathaniel Hendren
Patrick Kline
Emmanuel Saez

Where is the Land of Opportunity? The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States

w19840 Anusha Chari
Peter Blair Henry

Two Tales of Adjustment: East Asian Lessons for European Growth

w19837 Daron Acemoglu
David Autor
David Dorn
Gordon H. Hanson
Brendan Price

Return of the Solow Paradox? IT, Productivity, and Employment in U.S. Manufacturing

w19831 Maxim Pinkovskiy
Xavier Sala-i-Martin

Lights, Camera,... Income!: Estimating Poverty Using National Accounts, Survey Means, and Lights

w19830 John G. Fernald
Charles I. Jones

The Future of U.S. Economic Growth

w19829 Jeremy Greenwood
Nezih Guner
Georgi Kocharkov
Cezar Santos

Marry Your Like: Assortative Mating and Income Inequality

w19826 Scott R. Baker
Nicholas Bloom
Brandice Canes-Wrone
Steven J. Davis
Jonathan A. Rodden

Why Has U.S. Policy Uncertainty Risen Since 1960?

w19822 Casey Rothschild
Florian Scheuer

A Theory of Income Taxation under Multidimensional Skill Heterogeneity

w19821 Mark Bils
Yongsung Chang
Sun-Bin Kim

How Sticky Wages in Existing Jobs Can Affect Hiring

w19818 Daniel L. Greenwald
Martin Lettau
Sydney C. Ludvigson

Origins of Stock Market Fluctuations

w19812 Bryan Kelly
Lubos Pastor
Pietro Veronesi

The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market

w19802 Alan Fernihough
Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke

Coal and the European Industrial Revolution

w19792 Xu Cheng
Zhipeng Liao
Frank Schorfheide

Shrinkage Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models with Structural Instabilities

w19790 Joseph S. Vavra
Time-Varying Phillips Curves

w19789 Liana Fox
Irwin Garfinkel
Neeraj Kaushal
Jane Waldfogel
Christopher Wimer

Waging War on Poverty: Historical Trends in Poverty Using the Supplemental Poverty Measure

w19788 Elias Albagli
Christian Hellwig
Aleh Tsyvinski

Dynamic Dispersed Information and the Credit Spread Puzzle

w19777 Pascal Michaillat
Emmanuel Saez

An Economical Business-Cycle Model

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