NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Papers on Development Economics

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2017
w23289 Sandra Sequeira
Nathan Nunn
Nancy Qian

Migrants and the Making of America: The Short- and Long-Run Effects of Immigration during the Age of Mass Migration
w23295 Rema Hanna
Gabriel Kreindler
Benjamin A. Olken

Citywide Effects of High-Occupancy Vehicle Restrictions: Evidence from the Elimination of '3-in-1' in Jakarta
w23264 Paloma Acevedo
Guillermo Cruces
Paul Gertler
Sebastian Martinez

Living Up to Expectations: How Job Training Made Women Better Off and Men Worse Off
w23275 Felipe Barrera-Osorio
Leigh L. Linden
Juan Saavedra

Medium- and Long-Term Educational Consequences of Alternative Conditional Cash Transfer Designs: Experimental Evidence from Colombia
w23279 Edward L. Glaeser
Wentao Xiong

Urban Productivity in the Developing World
w23252 Pierre Bachas
Paul Gertler
Sean Higgins
Enrique Seira

Banking on Trust: How Debit Cards Enable the Poor to Save More
w23253 Joan Hamory Hicks
Marieke Kleemans
Nicholas Y. Li
Edward Miguel

Reevaluating Agricultural Productivity Gaps with Longitudinal Microdata
w23239 Sonia R. Bhalotra
Alberto Diaz-Cayeros
Grant Miller
Alfonso Miranda
Atheendar S. Venkataramani

Urban Water Disinfection and Mortality Decline in Developing Countries
w23209 Christian Dippel
Robert Gold
Stephan Heblich
Rodrigo Pinto

Instrumental Variables and Causal Mechanisms: Unpacking The Effect of Trade on Workers and Voters
w23207 Nathan Nunn
Raul Sanchez de la Sierra

Why Being Wrong can be Right: Magical Warfare Technologies and the Persistence of False Beliefs
w23208 Melissa Dell
Nathaniel Lane
Pablo Querubin

The Historical State, Local Collective Action, and Economic Development in Vietnam
w23213 Esther Duflo
The Economist as Plumber
w23214 Julio J. Elias
Nicola Lacetera
Mario Macis
Paola Salardi

Economic Development and the Regulation of Morally Contentious Activities
w23169 Enrique Alberola
Gianluca Benigno

Revisiting the Commodity Curse: A Financial Perspective
w23195 Marcel Fafchamps
Di Mo

Peer Effects in Computer Assisted Learning: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment
w23196 Jacob Moscona
Nathan Nunn
James A. Robinson

Keeping It in the Family: Lineage Organization and the Scope of Trust in Sub-Saharan Africa
w23178 Benjamin Feigenberg
Steven Rivkin
Rui Yan

Illusory Gains from Chile's Targeted School Voucher Experiment
w23181 Ryan Brown
Verónica Montalva
Duncan Thomas
Andrea Velásquez

Impact of Violent Crime on Risk Aversion: Evidence from the Mexican Drug War
w23120 Ernesto Dal Bó
Frederico Finan
Olle Folke
Torsten Persson
Johanna Rickne

Who Becomes a Politician?
w23122 Robert Jensen
Nolan H. Miller

Keepin' 'em Down on the Farm: Migration and Strategic Investment in Children's Schooling
w23132 Xinshen Diao
Margaret McMillan
Dani Rodrik

The Recent Growth Boom in Developing Economies: A Structural Change Perspective
w23123 Elwyn Davies
Marcel Fafchamps

When No Bad Deed Goes Punished: Relational Contracting in Ghana versus the UK
w23126 Xuehui Han
Shang-Jin Wei

Re-examining the Middle-Income Trap Hypothesis (MITH): What to Reject and What to Revive?
w23128 Diego Restuccia
Raul Santaeulalia-Llopis

Land Misallocation and Productivity
w23130 Raymond Fisman
Jing Shi
Yongxiang Wang
Rong Xu

Social Ties and Favoritism in Chinese Science
w23098 Raymond Fisman
Yongxiang Wang

The Distortionary Effects of Incentives in Government: Evidence from China's "Death Ceiling" Program
w23106 Nicholas Ryan
The Competitive Effects of Transmission Infrastructure in the Indian Electricity Market
w23110 Davide Cantoni
David Y. Yang
Noam Yuchtman
Y. Jane Zhang

Are Protests Games of Strategic Complements or Substitutes? Experimental Evidence from Hong Kong's Democracy Movement
w23081 Tom Vogl
Aggregating the Fertility Transition: Intergenerational Dynamics in Quality and Quantity
w23033 Murat Iyigun
Nathan Nunn
Nancy Qian

Winter is Coming: The Long-Run Effects of Climate Change on Conflict, 1400-1900
w23035 Christopher Blattman
Mathilde Emeriau
Nathan Fiala

Do Anti-Poverty Programs Sway Voters? Experimental Evidence from Uganda
w23039 Tasso Adamopoulos
Loren Brandt
Jessica Leight
Diego Restuccia

Misallocation, Selection and Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis with Panel Data from China
w23050 Juan Saavedra
Emma Näslund-Hadley
Mariana Alfonso

Targeted Remedial Education: Experimental Evidence from Peru
w23052 B. Zorina Khan
Related Investing: Corporate Ownership and Capital Mobilization during Early Industrialization
w23056 Eoin McGuirk
Marshall Burke

The Economic Origins of Conflict in Africa
w23021 Xinshen Diao
Kenneth Harttgen
Margaret McMillan

The Changing Structure of Africa's Economies
2016
w22995 Rosangela Bando
Sebastian Galiani
Paul Gertler

The Effects of Non-Contributory Pensions on Material and Subjective Well Being
w22997 Edward L. Glaeser
Real Estate Bubbles and Urban Development
w23000 Shoumitro Chatterjee
Tom Vogl

Growth and Childbearing in the Short- and Long-Run
w23005 Suresh De Mel
David McKenzie
Christopher Woodruff

Labor Drops: Experimental Evidence on the Return to Additional Labor in Microenterprises
w22963 Victor Lavy
Giulia Lotti
Zizhong Yan

Empowering Mothers and Enhancing Early Childhood Investment: Effect on Adults Outcomes and Children Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills
w22973 Jonathan de Quidt
Johannes Haushofer

Depression for Economists
w22976 Sam Asher
Denis Nekipelov
Paul Novosad
Stephen P. Ryan

Classification Trees for Heterogeneous Moment-Based Models
w22989 Garret S. Christensen
Edward Miguel

Transparency, Reproducibility, and the Credibility of Economics Research
w22940 Diane Coffey
Michael Geruso
Dean Spears

Sanitation, Disease Externalities, and Anemia: Evidence From Nepal
w22947 Wyatt J. Brooks
Joseph P. Kaboski
Yao Amber Li

Growth Policy, Agglomeration, and (the Lack of) Competition
w22948 Laurence Ball
Anusha Chari
Prachi Mishra

Understanding Inflation in India
w22951 Jing Cai
Adam Szeidl

Interfirm Relationships and Business Performance
w22955 Marcos A. Rangel
Tom Vogl

Agricultural Fires and Infant Health
w22931 Abhijit Banerjee
Rukmini Banerji
James Berry
Esther Duflo
Harini Kannan
Shobhini Mukherji
Marc Shotland
Michael Walton

From Proof of Concept to Scalable Policies: Challenges and Solutions, with an Application
w22906 Haizheng Li
Junzi He
Qinyi Liu
Barbara M. Fraumeni
Xiang Zheng

Regional Distribution and Dynamics of Human Capital in China 1985-2014: Education, Urbanization, and Aging of the Population
w22909 Gustavo J. Bobonis
Mark Stabile
Leonardo Tovar

Bombs and Babies: US Navy Bombing Activity and Infant Health in Vieques, Puerto Rico
w22919 Caitlin Brown
Martin Ravallion
Dominique van de Walle

A Poor Means Test? Econometric Targeting in Africa
w22923 Karthik Muralidharan
Abhijeet Singh
Alejandro J. Ganimian

Disrupting Education? Experimental Evidence on Technology-Aided Instruction in India
w22928 Rosangela Bando
Francisco Gallego
Paul Gertler
Dario Romero

Books or Laptops? The Cost-Effectiveness of Shifting from Printed to Digital Delivery of Educational Content
w22889 Xinshen Diao
Josaphat Kweka
Margaret McMillan

Economic Transformation in Africa from the Bottom Up: Evidence from Tanzania
w22895 B. Kelsey Jack
Grant Smith

Charging Ahead: Prepaid Electricity Metering in South Africa
w22869 Diego Daruich
William Easterly
Ariell Reshef

The Surprising Instability of Export Specializations
w22854 Shang-Jin Wei
Zhuan Xie
Xiaobo Zhang

From "Made in China" to "Innovated in China": Necessity, Prospect, and Challenges
w22871 Karen Macours
Renos Vakis

Sustaining Impacts When Transfers End: Women Leaders, Aspirations, and Investment in Children
w22818 Joanna Lahey
Ryan Beasley

Technical Aspects of Correspondence Studies
w22803 Abhijit Banerjee
Esther Duflo
Clement Imbert
Santhosh Mathew
Rohini Pande

E-governance, Accountability, and Leakage in Public Programs: Experimental Evidence from a Financial Management Reform in India
w22804 Matilde Bombardini
Bingjing Li

Trade, Pollution and Mortality in China
w22809 Pedro Bento
Diego Restuccia

Misallocation, Establishment Size, and Productivity
w22777 Jean-Paul Carvalho
Christian Dippel

Elite Identity and Political Accountability: A Tale of Ten Islands
w22788 Sebastian Galiani
Laura Jaitman
Federico Weinschelbaum

Crime and Durable Goods
w22746 Abhijit Banerjee
Rukmini Banerji
James Berry
Esther Duflo
Harini Kannan
Shobhini Mukherji
Marc Shotland
Michael Walton

Mainstreaming an Effective Intervention: Evidence from Randomized Evaluations of "Teaching at the Right Level" in India
w22766 Rachel Heath
Seema Jayachandran

The Causes and Consequences of Increased Female Education and Labor Force Participation in Developing Countries
w22764 Minahil Asim
Thomas Dee

Mobile Phones, Civic Engagement, and School Performance in Pakistan
w22714 Munenobu Ikegami
Michael R. Carter
Christopher B. Barrett
Sarah A. Janzen

Poverty Traps and the Social Protection Paradox
w22715 Sari Pekkala Kerr
William Kerr
Çaǧlar Özden
Christopher Parsons

Global Talent Flows
w22719 Marina Bassi
Costas Meghir
Ana Reynoso

Education Quality and Teaching Practices
w22724 Sebastian Galiani
Gustavo Torrens

Why Not Taxation and Representation? A Note on the American Revolution
w22686 William Jack
Michael Kremer
Joost de Laat
Tavneet Suri

Borrowing Requirements, Credit Access, and Adverse Selection: Evidence from Kenya
w22702 Jing Cai
Alain de Janvry
Elisabeth Sadoulet

Subsidy Policies and Insurance Demand
w22661 Travis J. Lybbert
Bruce Wydick

Hope as Aspirations, Agency, and Pathways: Poverty Dynamics and Microfinance in Oaxaca, Mexico
w22670 M. Caridad Araujo
Mariano Bosch
Norbert Schady

Can Cash Transfers Help Households Escape an Inter-Generational Poverty Trap?
w22674 Francisco J. Buera
Joseph P. Kaboski
Yongseok Shin

Taking Stock of the Evidence on Micro-Financial Interventions
w22683 Christopher Blattman
Stefan Dercon

Occupational Choice in Early Industrializing Societies: Experimental Evidence on the Income and Health Effects of Industrial and Entrepreneurial Work
w22633 Dean Karlan
Jake Kendall
Rebecca Mann
Rohini Pande
Tavneet Suri
Jonathan Zinman

Research and Impacts of Digital Financial Services
w22640 Michael Levere
Gayatri Acharya
Prashant Bharadwaj

The Role of Information and Cash Transfers on Early Childhood Development: Evidence from Nepal
w22653 Filipe Campante
David Yanagizawa-Drott

Long-Range Growth: Economic Development in the Global Network of Air Links
w22657 Eric A. Hanushek
Guido Schwerdt
Simon Wiederhold
Ludger Woessmann

Coping with Change: International Differences in the Returns to Skills
w22622 Gordon Hanson
Craig McIntosh

Is The Mediterranean The New Rio Grande? US And EU Immigration Pressures In The Long Run
w22620 Kayleigh Barnes
Arnab Mukherji
Patrick Mullen
Neeraj Sood

Financial Risk Protection from Social Health Insurance
w22621 Francis DiTraglia
Camilo García-Jimeno

A Framework for Eliciting, Incorporating, and Disciplining Identification Beliefs in Linear Models
w22626 Paulo Santos
Christopher B. Barrett

Heterogeneous Wealth Dynamics: On the Roles of Risk and Ability
w22628 Michael R. Carter
Emilia Tjernström
Patricia Toledo

Heterogeneous Impact Dynamics of a Rural Business Development Program in Nicaragua
w22595 Angus Deaton
Nancy Cartwright

Understanding and Misunderstanding Randomized Controlled Trials
w22588 Sebastian Galiani
Nadya Hajj
Pablo Ibarraran
Nandita Krishnaswamy
Patrick J. McEwan

Electoral reciprocity in programmatic redistribution: Experimental Evidence
w22591 Shari Eli
Laura Salisbury
Allison Shertzer

Migration Responses to Conflict: Evidence from the Border of the American Civil War
w22601 John F. Helliwell
Aneta Bonikowska
Hugh Shiplett

Migration as a Test of the Happiness Set Point Hypothesis: Evidence from Immigration to Canada
w22602 Debraj Ray
Arthur Robson

Certified Random: A New Order for Co-Authorship
w22556 Kirk Hamilton
John F. Helliwell
Michael Woolcock

Social Capital, Trust and Well-being in the Evaluation of Wealth
w22560 David E. Bloom
Michael Kuhn
Klaus Prettner

Africa's Prospects for Enjoying a Demographic Dividend
w22565 Bet Caeyers
Marcel Fafchamps

Exclusion Bias in the Estimation of Peer Effects
w22566 Stefano DellaVigna
Devin Pope

Predicting Experimental Results: Who Knows What?
w22522 Resul Cesur
Erdal Tekin
Aydogan Ulker

Can Natural Gas Save Lives? Evidence from the Deployment of a Fuel Delivery System in a Developing Country
w22528 Sujata Visaria
Rajeev Dehejia
Melody M. Chao
Anirban Mukhopadhyay

Unintended Consequences of Rewards for Student Attendance: Results from a Field Experiment in Indian Classrooms
w22534 Simone Schaner
The Persistent Power of Behavioral Change: Long-Run Impacts of Temporary Savings Subsidies for the Poor
w22482 Sebastian Galiani
Ernesto Schargrodsky

The Deregularization of Land Titles
w22491 Emily Breza
Supreet Kaur
Yogita Shamdasani

The Morale Effects of Pay Inequality
w22463 Pascaline Dupas
Dean Karlan
Jonathan Robinson
Diego Ubfal

Banking the Unbanked? Evidence From Three Countries
w22468 Sebastian Galiani
Patrick J. McEwan
Brian Quistorff

External and Internal Validity of a Geographic Quasi-Experiment Embedded in Cluster-Randomized Experiment
w22443 Eric Avis
Claudio Ferraz
Frederico Finan

Do Government Audits Reduce Corruption? Estimating the Impacts of Exposing Corrupt Politicians
w22449 Mark Rosenzweig
Christopher Udry

External Validity in a Stochastic World
w22409 Girum Abebe
Stefano Caria
Marcel Fafchamps
Paolo Falco
Simon Franklin
Simon Quinn

Curse of Anonymity or Tyranny of Distance? The Impacts of Job-Search Support in Urban Ethiopia
w22412 Charles Yuji Horioka
Akiko Terada-Hagiwara

The Impact of Pre-marital Sex Ratios on Household Saving in Two Asian Countries: The Competitive Saving Motive Revisited
w22382 Kevin Croke
Joan Hamory Hicks
Eric Hsu
Michael Kremer
Edward Miguel

Does Mass Deworming Affect Child Nutrition? Meta-analysis, Cost-Effectiveness, and Statistical Power
w22392 Emi Nakamura
Jósef Sigurdsson
Jón Steinsson

The Gift of Moving: Intergenerational Consequences of a Mobility Shock
w22403 Jing Cai
Changcheng Song

Do Disaster Experience and Knowledge Affect Insurance Take-up Decisions?
w22395 Melissa Dell
Pablo Querubin

Nation Building Through Foreign Intervention: Evidence from Discontinuities in Military Strategies
w22378 Seema Jayachandran
Joost de Laat
Eric F. Lambin
Charlotte Y. Stanton

Cash for Carbon: A Randomized Controlled Trial of Payments for Ecosystem Services to Reduce Deforestation
w22367 Koichiro Ito
Shuang Zhang

Willingness to Pay for Clean Air: Evidence from Air Purifier Markets in China
w22317 Jessica Y. Ho
Elizabeth Frankenberg
Cecep Sumantri
Duncan Thomas

Adult Mortality Five Years after a Natural Disaster: Evidence from the Indian Ocean Tsunami
w22324 Adriano A. Rampini
Financing Durable Assets
w22326 Julia Garlick
Murray Leibbrandt
James Levinsohn

Individual Migration and Household Incomes
w22327 Nicholas Bloom
Raffaella Sadun
John Van Reenen

Management as a Technology?
w22340 Michael Callen
Saad Gulzar
Syed Ali Hasanain
Yasir Khan

The Political Economy of Public Sector Absence: Experimental Evidence from Pakistan
w22300 Benjamin Faber
Cecile Gaubert

Tourism and Economic Development: Evidence from Mexico's Coastline
w22312 Michal Bauer
Christopher Blattman
Julie Chytilová
Joseph Henrich
Edward Miguel
Tamar Mitts

Can War Foster Cooperation?
w22314 Solomon Hsiang
Nitin Sekar

Does Legalization Reduce Black Market Activity? Evidence from a Global Ivory Experiment and Elephant Poaching Data
w22290 Daniel LaFave
Duncan Thomas

Height and Cognition at Work: Labor Market Productivity in a Low Income Setting
w22292 Kenneth Lee
Edward Miguel
Catherine Wolfram

Experimental Evidence on the Demand for and Costs of Rural Electrification
w22276 Treb Allen
David Atkin

Volatility and the Gains from Trade
w22282 Marcel Fafchamps
Mans Soderbom
and Monique vanden Boogaart

Adoption with Social Learning and Network Externalities
w22216 Maxim Pinkovskiy
Xavier Sala-i-Martin

Newer Need Not be Better: Evaluating the Penn World Tables and the World Development Indicators Using Nighttime Lights
w22222 C. Kirabo Jackson
The Effect of Single-Sex Education on Test Scores, School Completion, Arrests, and Teen Motherhood: Evidence from School Transitions
w22233 Jessica Leight
Elaine M. Liu

Maternal Education, Parental Investment and Non-Cognitive Skills in Rural China
w22235 Pascaline Dupas
Edward Miguel

Impacts and Determinants of Health Levels in Low-Income Countries
w22203 S. Nageeb Ali
Roland Bénabou

Image Versus Information: Changing Societal Norms and Optimal Privacy
w22211 John Komlos
Growth of income and welfare in the U.S, 1979-2011
w22181 Solomon M. Hsiang
Climate Econometrics
w22190 Efraim Benmelech
Esteban F. Klor

What Explains the Flow of Foreign Fighters to ISIS?
w22166 Sebastian Galiani
Ivan Lopez Cruz
Gustavo Torrens

Stirring Up a Hornets' Nest: Geographic Distribution of Crime
w22167 Abhijit Banerjee
Sylvain Chassang
Erik Snowberg

Decision Theoretic Approaches to Experiment Design and External Validity
w22144 Lee J. Alston
Marcus André Melo
Bernardo Mueller
Carlos Pereira

A Conceptual Framework for Understanding Critical Transitions
w22145 J. Vernon Henderson
Adam Storeygard
Tim L. Squires
David N. Weil

The Global Spatial Distribution of Economic Activity: Nature, History, and the Role of Trade
w22158 Melanie Morten
Jaqueline Oliveira

Paving the Way to Development: Costly Migration and Labor Market Integration
w22159 Melanie Morten
Temporary Migration and Endogenous Risk Sharing in Village India
w22164 Sebastian Galiani
Stephen Knack
Lixin Colin Xu
Ben Zou

The Effect of Aid on Growth: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment
w22131 David de la Croix
Matthias Doepke
Joel Mokyr

Clans, Guilds, and Markets: Apprenticeship Institutions and Growth in the Pre-Industrial Economy
w22113 Omar Al-Ubaydli
John A. List

Field Experiments in Markets
w22117 Suresh Naidu
Noam Yuchtman

Labor Market Institutions in the Gilded Age of American Economic History
w22121 Abhijit Banerjee
Sharon Barnhardt
Esther Duflo

Can Iron-Fortified Salt Control Anemia? Evidence from Two Experiments in Rural Bihar
w22075 Richard G. Newell
Yifei Qian
Daniel Raimi

Global Energy Outlook 2015
w22056 Weerachart T. Kilenthong
Robert M. Townsend

A Market Based Solution for Fire Sales and Other Pecuniary Externalities
w22019 James Andreoni
Michael Callen
Yasir Khan
Karrar Jaffar
Charles Sprenger

Using Preference Estimates to Customize Incentives: An Application to Polio Vaccination Drives in Pakistan
w22049 Taryn Dinkelman
Martine Mariotti

The Long Run Effects of Labor Migration on Human Capital Formation in Communities of Origin
w22002 Juan Pablo Chauvin
Edward Glaeser
Yueran Ma
Kristina Tobio

What is Different About Urbanization in Rich and Poor Countries? Cities in Brazil, China, India and the United States
w22007 Dan Cao
Iván Werning

Dynamic Savings Choices with Disagreements
w21983 Gaurav Datt
Martin Ravallion
Rinku Murgai

Growth, Urbanization and Poverty Reduction in India
w21984 Paolo Bertoletti
Federico Etro
Ina Simonovska

International Trade with Indirect Additivity
w21988 Lee Alston
Bernardo Mueller

Economic Backwardness and Catching Up: Brazilian Agriculture, 1964-2014
w21957 Pinelopi K. Goldberg
Nina Pavcnik

The Effects of Trade Policy
w21963 Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato
Xiao Yu Wang
Shuang Zhang

The Limits of Meritocracy: Screening Bureaucrats Under Imperfect Verifiability
w21949 Kenneth Lee
Edward Miguel
Catherine Wolfram

Appliance Ownership and Aspirations among Electric Grid and Home Solar Households in Rural Kenya
w21900 Leonard Goff
John F. Helliwell
Guy Mayraz

The Welfare Costs of Well-being Inequality
w21905 Ufuk Akcigit
Harun Alp
Michael Peters

Lack of Selection and Limits to Delegation: Firm Dynamics in Developing Countries
w21907 Stelios Michalopoulos
Louis Putterman
David N. Weil

The Influence of Ancestral Lifeways on Individual Economic Outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa
w21910 Nava Ashraf
Edward L. Glaeser
Giacomo A.M. Ponzetto

Infrastructure, Incentives and Institutions
w21915 Michael Kremer
Jack Willis

Guns, Latrines, and Land Reform: Private Expectations and Public Policy
w21877 Arthur Alik-Lagrange
Martin Ravallion

Social Frictions to Knowledge Diffusion: Evidence from an Information Intervention
w21894 Victor Lavy
Analia Schlosser
Adi Shany

Out of Africa: Human Capital Consequences of In Utero Conditions
w21842 Marcel Fafchamps
Julien Labonne

Using Split Samples to Improve Inference about Causal Effects
w21845 John Komlos
Brian A'Hearn

The Decline in the Nutritional Status of the U.S. Antebellum Population at the Onset of Modern Economic Growth
w21847 Konrad B. Burchardi
Thomas Chaney
Tarek A. Hassan

Migrants, Ancestors, and Investments
w21849 Eli Berman
Mitch Downey
Joseph Felter

Expanding Governance as Development: Evidence on Child Nutrition in the Philippines
w21857 Sebastian Galiani
Cheryl Long
Camila Navajas
Gustavo Torrens

Horizontal and Vertical Conflict: Experimental Evidence
w21859 Frederico Finan
Maurizio Mazzocco

Electoral Incentives and the Allocation of Public Funds

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