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NBER Papers on Program on the Development of the American Economy

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2020
w27808 Martin Ravallion
On the Origins of the Idea of Ending Poverty
w27805 Vellore Arthi
John Parman

Disease, Downturns, and Wellbeing: Economic History and the Long-Run Impacts of COVID-19
w27798 Abhay Aneja
Guo Xu

The Costs of Employment Segregation: Evidence from the Federal Government under Wilson
w27776 Samuel Bazzi
Martin Fiszbein
Mesay Gebresilasse

Rugged Individualism and Collective (In)action During the COVID-19 Pandemic
w27750 Eric C. Edwards
Martin Fiszbein
Gary D. Libecap

Colonial Origins, Property Rights, and the Organization of Agricultural Production: the US Midwest and Argentine Pampas Compared
w27744 Alexandr Kopytov
Nikolai Roussanov
Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel

Cheap Thrills: the Price of Leisure and the Global Decline in Work Hours
w27733 Qian Chen
Christoffer Koch
Padma Sharma
Gary Richardson

Payments Crises and Consequences
w27716 Taylor Jaworski
Ian Keay

Openness to Trade and the Spread of Industrialization: Evidence from Canada during the First Era of Globalization
w27706 Nathan Nunn
History as Evolution
w27703 Eric Hilt
Matthew S. Jaremski
Wendy Rahn

When Uncle Sam Introduced Main Street to Wall Street: Liberty Bonds and the Transformation of American Finance
w27689 Anna Aizer
Ryan Boone
Adriana Lleras-Muney
Jonathan Vogel

Discrimination and Racial Disparities in Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from WWII
w27673 Brian Beach
Karen Clay
Martin H. Saavedra

The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and its Lessons for COVID-19
w27668 Michael R. Haines
J. David Hacker
Matthew S. Jaremski

Early Fertility Decline in the United States: Tests of Alternative Hypotheses using New Complete-Count Census Microdata and Enhanced County-Level Data
w27656 Richard Hornbeck
Dust Bowl Migrants: Identifying an Archetype
w27614 Price V. Fishback
Rule of Law in Labor Relations, 1898-1940
w27586 Martin Ellison
Sang Seok Lee
Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke

The Ends of 30 Big Depressions
w27530 Carl T. Kitchens
Luke P. Rodgers

The Impact of the WWI Agricultural Boom and Bust on Female Opportunity Cost and Fertility
w27523 Anna Aizer
Shari Eli
Adriana Lleras-Muney

The Incentive Effects of Cash Transfers to the Poor
w27514 Adriana Lleras-Muney
Joseph Price
Dahai Yue

The Association Between Educational Attainment and Longevity using Individual Level Data from the 1940 Census
w27506 Yannay Spitzer
Gaspare Tortorici
Ariell Zimran

International Migration Responses to Natural Disasters: Evidence from Modern Europe's Deadliest Earthquake
w27503 Réka Juhász
Mara P. Squicciarini
Nico Voigtländer

Technology Adoption and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Industrialization in France
w27495 Howard Bodenhorn
Business in a Time of Spanish Influenza
w27480 Philipp Ager
James J. Feigenbaum
Casper Worm Hansen
Hui Ren Tan

How the Other Half Died: Immigration and Mortality in US Cities
w27479 Christian Dippel
Dustin Frye
Bryan Leonard

Property Rights without Transfer Rights: A Study of Indian Land Allotment
w27455 Diego A. Comin
Ana Danieli
Martí Mestieri

Income-driven Labor Market Polarization
w27446 Jennifer Bennett
Robert Kornfeld
Daniel Sichel
David Wasshausen

Measuring Infrastructure in BEA's National Economic Accounts
w27436 Jeremy Atack
Robert A. Margo
Paul Rhode

'Mechanization Takes Command': Inanimate Power and Labor Productivity in Late Nineteenth Century American Manufacturing
w27401 Cevat Giray Aksoy
Barry Eichengreen
Orkun Saka

The Political Scar of Epidemics
w27400 Naomi R. Lamoreaux
John Joseph Wallis

Economic Crisis, General Laws, and the Mid-Nineteenth-Century Transformation of American Political Economy
w27375 Daniel P. Gross
Bhaven N. Sampat

Inventing the Endless Frontier: The Effects of the World War II Research Effort on Post-war Innovation
w27372 Ran Abramitzky
Leah Platt Boustan
Dylan Connor

Leaving the Enclave: Historical Evidence on Immigrant Mobility from the Industrial Removal Office
w27333 W. Walker Hanlon
Casper Worm Hansen
Jake W. Kantor

Temperature, Disease, and Death in London: Analyzing Weekly Data for the Century from 1866-1965
w27291 Keith Meyers
Paul Rhode

Yield Performance of Corn under Heat Stress: A Comparison of Hybrid and Open-Pollinated Seeds during a Period of Technological Transformation, 1933-1955
w27268 William J. Collins
The Great Migration of Black Americans from the US South: A Guide and Interpretation
w27238 Paola Giuliano
Marco Tabellini

The Seeds of Ideology: Historical Immigration and Political Preferences in the United States
w27206 Julian M. Alston
Philip G. Pardey

Innovation, Growth and Structural Change in American Agriculture
w27161 James J. Feigenbaum
Soumyajit Mazumder
Cory B. Smith

When Coercive Economies Fail: The Political Economy of the US South After the Boll Weevil
w27156 Joseph Price
Christian vom Lehn
Riley Wilson

The Winners and Losers of Immigration: Evidence from Linked Historical Data
w27120 Karen Clay
Joshua A. Lewis
Edson R. Severnini
Xiao Wang

The Value of Health Insurance during a Crisis: Effects of Medicaid Implementation on Pandemic Influenza Mortality
w27119 Peter Zhixian Lin
Christopher M. Meissner

A Note on Long-Run Persistence of Public Health Outcomes in Pandemics
w27115 George J. Hall
Thomas J. Sargent

Debt and Taxes in Eight U.S. Wars and Two Insurrections
w27101 Karen Clay
Ethan J. Schmick
Werner Troesken

Changes in Black-White Inequality: Evidence from the Boll Weevil
w27080 Petra Moser
Economics of Research and Innovation in Agriculture
w27075 Konrad B. Burchardi
Thomas Chaney
Tarek Alexander Hassan
Lisa Tarquinio
Stephen J. Terry

Immigration, Innovation, and Growth
w27073 Samuel Bazzi
Masyhur Hilmy
Benjamin Marx

Islam and the State: Religious Education in the Age of Mass Schooling
w27069 James J. Feigenbaum
Price V. Fishback
Keoka Grayson

Inequality and the Safety Net Throughout the Income Distribution, 1929-1940
w27067 Michael D. Bordo
Christopher M. Meissner

Original Sin and the Great Depression
w27009 Zachary A. Bethune
Anton Korinek

Covid-19 Infection Externalities: Trading Off Lives vs. Livelihoods
w26938 Price V. Fishback
Social Insurance and Public Assistance in the Twentieth-Century United States: 2019 Presidential Address for the Economic History Association
w26937 Price V. Fishback
Andrew Seltzer

The Rise of American Minimum Wages, 1912-1968
w26936 Andreas Ferrara
Price V. Fishback

Discrimination, Migration, and Economic Outcomes: Evidence from World War I
w26929 Amanda Guimbeau
Nidhiya Menon
Aldo Musacchio

The Brazilian Bombshell? The Long-Term Impact of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic the South American Way
w26926 Martha J. Bailey
John DiNardo
Bryan A. Stuart

The Economic Impact of a High National Minimum Wage: Evidence from the 1966 Fair Labor Standards Act
w26909 Claudia Goldin
Lawrence F. Katz

The Incubator of Human Capital: The NBER and the Rise of the Human Capital Paradigm
w26895 Hugh Rockoff
Off to a Good Start: The NBER and the Measurement of National Income
w26885 Michela Giorcelli
Petra Moser

Copyright and Creativity. Evidence from Italian Opera During the Napoleonic Age
w26865 Wolfgang Keller
Markus Lampe
Carol H. Shiue

International Transactions: Real Trade and Factor Flows between 1700 and 1870
w26859 Kris James Mitchener
Gary Richardson

Contagion of Fear
w26819 Lisa D. Cook
Maggie E.C. Jones
David Rosé
Trevon D. Logan

The Green Books and the Geography of Segregation in Public Accommodations
w26781 Carolyn Moehling
Melissa A. Thomasson

Votes For Women: An Economic Perspective on Women's Enfranchisement
w26770 Fabian Eckert
Andrés Gvirtz
Jack Liang
Michael Peters

A Method to Construct Geographical Crosswalks with an Application to US Counties since 1790
w26763 Ran Abramitzky
Hanna Halaburda

Were Jews in Interwar Poland More Educated?
w26754 Davide Cantoni
Noam Yuchtman

Historical Natural Experiments: Bridging Economics and Economic History
w26710 Christoffer Koch
Gary Richardson
Patrick Van Horn

Countercyclical Capital Buffers: A Cautionary Tale
w26709 Elizabeth U. Cascio
Na’ama Shenhav

A Century of the American Woman Voter: Sex Gaps in Political Participation, Preferences, and Partisanship Since Women's Enfranchisement
w26695 Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi
Gustavo S. Cortes
Marc D. Weidenmier

Regional Monetary Policies and the Great Depression
w26694 Raven Molloy
Christopher Smith
Abigail K. Wozniak

Changing Stability in U.S. Employment Relationships: A Tale of Two Tails
w26679 Jeffrey Clemens
Parker Rogers

Demand Shocks, Procurement Policies, and the Nature of Medical Innovation: Evidence from Wartime Prosthetic Device Patents
w26666 Òscar Jordà
Sanjay R. Singh
Alan M. Taylor

The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy
w26637 Efraim Benmelech
Nitish Kumar
Raghuram Rajan

The Decline of Secured Debt
w26632 Fabian Eckert
Teresa C. Fort
Peter K. Schott
Natalie J. Yang

Imputing Missing Values in the US Census Bureau's County Business Patterns
w26617 Claudia Goldin
Sari Pekkala Kerr
Claudia Olivetti

Why Firms Offer Paid Parental Leave: An Exploratory Study
w26603 Cailin R. Slattery
Owen M. Zidar

Evaluating State and Local Business Tax Incentives
2019
w26594 Richard Hornbeck
Martin Rotemberg

Railroads, Reallocation, and the Rise of American Manufacturing
w26536 Ran Abramitzky
Philipp Ager
Leah Platt Boustan
Elior Cohen
Casper W. Hansen

The Effects of Immigration on the Economy: Lessons from the 1920s Border Closure
w26490 Walker Hanlon
Taylor Jaworski

Spillover Effects of IP Protection in the Inter-war Aircraft Industry
w26489 D. Mark Anderson
Kerwin Kofi Charles
Daniel I. Rees
Tianyi Wang

Water Purification Efforts and the Black-White Infant Mortality Gap, 1906-1938
w26477 Paul Gaggl
Rowena Gray
Ioana Marinescu
Miguel Morin

Does Electricity Drive Structural Transformation? Evidence from the United States
w26465 Ricardo Dahis
Emily Nix
Nancy Qian

Choosing Racial Identity in the United States, 1880-1940
w26435 Josh Davis
Alan M. Taylor

The Leverage Factor: Credit Cycles and Asset Returns
w26417 Jared P. Hutchins
Brent Hueth
Guilherme Rosa

Quantifying Heterogeneous Returns to Genetic Selection: Evidence from Wisconsin Dairies
w26416 Martha J. Bailey
Tanya S. Byker
Elena Patel
Shanthi Ramnath

The Long-Term Effects of California's 2004 Paid Family Leave Act on Women's Careers: Evidence from U.S. Tax Data
w26414 William J. Collins
Ariell Zimran

Working Their Way Up? US Immigrants' Changing Labor Market Assimilation in the Age of Mass Migration
w26410 Jeremy Greenwood
Nezih Guner
Karen A. Kopecky

The Wife's Protector: A Quantitative Theory Linking Contraceptive Technology with the Decline in Marriage
w26408 Ran Abramitzky
Leah Platt Boustan
Elisa Jácome
Santiago Pérez

Intergenerational Mobility of Immigrants in the US over Two Centuries
w26407 James J. Feigenbaum
Hui Ren Tan

The Return to Education in the Mid-20th Century: Evidence from Twins
w26261 Daniel P. Gross
Collusive Investments in Technological Compatibility: Lessons from U.S. Railroads in the Late 19th Century
w26256 Douglas A. Irwin
U.S. Trade Policy in Historical Perspective
w26238 Andrew Goodman-Bacon
Jamein P. Cunningham

Changes in Family Structure and Welfare Participation Since the 1960s: The Role of Legal Services
w26235 Michael J. Andrews
Local Effects of Land Grant Colleges on Agricultural Innovation and Output
w26227 Joseph Price
Kasey Buckles
Jacob Van Leeuwen
Isaac Riley

Combining Family History and Machine Learning to Link Historical Records
w26170 Leah Platt Boustan
Robert A. Margo
Matthew M. Miller
James M. Reeves
Justin P. Steil

Does Condominium Development Lead to Gentrification?
w26156 Daniel M. Thompson
James J. Feigenbaum
Andrew B. Hall
Jesse Yoder

Who Becomes a Member of Congress? Evidence From De-Anonymized Census Data
w26127 Santiago Pérez
Southern (American) Hospitality: Italians in Argentina and the US during the Age of Mass Migration
w26121 Dong Cheng
Mario J. Crucini
Hyunseung Oh
Hakan Yilmazkuday

Early 20th Century American Exceptionalism: Production, Trade and Diffusion of the Automobile
w26085 Sebastian Edwards
Change of Monetary Regime, Contracts, and Prices: Lessons from the Great Depression, 1932-1935
w26077 David A. Keiser
Joseph S. Shapiro

US Water Pollution Regulation over the Last Half Century: Burning Waters to Crystal Springs?
w26034 Matthew S. Jaremski
David C. Wheelock

The Founding of the Federal Reserve, the Great Depression and the Evolution of the U.S. Interbank Network
w26014 Trevon D. Logan
Whitelashing: Black Politicians, Taxes, and Violence
w26001 Germán Gutiérrez
Thomas Philippon

The Failure of Free Entry
w25997 Nicholas Z. Muller
Time Preference and the Great Depression: Evidence from Firewood Prices in Portland, Oregon
w25992 Federico Droller
Martin Fiszbein

Staple Products, Linkages, and Development: Evidence from Argentina
w25962 Andrew Goodman-Bacon
Lucie Schmidt

Federalizing Benefits: The Introduction of Supplemental Security Income and the Size of the Safety Net
w25897 Charles W. Calomiris
Matthew S. Jaremski
David C. Wheelock

Interbank Connections, Contagion and Bank Distress in the Great Depression
w25891 Gary B. Gorton
The Regulation of Private Money
w25884 Karen Clay
Peter Juul Egedesø
Casper Worm Hansen
Peter Sandholt Jensen
Avery Calkins

Controlling Tuberculosis? Evidence from the First Community-Wide Health Experiment
w25846 Shari Eli
Trevon D. Logan
Boriana Miloucheva

Physician Bias and Racial Disparities in Health: Evidence from Veterans' Pensions
w25830 David S. Jacks
Dennis Novy

Trade Blocs and Trade Wars during the Interwar Period
w25825 Ran Abramitzky
Leah Platt Boustan
Katherine Eriksson
James J. Feigenbaum
Santiago Pérez

Automated Linking of Historical Data
w25812 Steven Sprick Schuster
Matthew Jaremski
Elisabeth Ruth Perlman

An Empirical History of the United States Postal Savings System
w25805 Prottoy A. Akbar
Sijie Li
Allison Shertzer
Randall P. Walsh

Racial Segregation in Housing Markets and the Erosion of Black Wealth
w25790 Felipe Benguria
Alan M. Taylor

After the Panic: Are Financial Crises Demand or Supply Shocks? Evidence from International Trade
w25768 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

Fiscal Space and the Aftermath of Financial Crises: How It Matters and Why
w25752 Brian Beach
W. Walker Hanlon

Censorship, Family Planning, and the Historical Fertility Transition
w25741 Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
Ahmed Rahman
Alan M. Taylor

Trade, Technology, and the Great Divergence
w25727 Philipp Ager
Katherine Eriksson
Casper Worm Hansen
Lars Lønstrup

How the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake Shaped Economic Activity in the American West
w25700 Philipp Ager
Leah Platt Boustan
Katherine Eriksson

The Intergenerational Effects of a Large Wealth Shock: White Southerners After the Civil War
w25695 Erik Brynjolfsson
Avinash Collis
W. Erwin Diewert
Felix Eggers
Kevin J. Fox

GDP-B: Accounting for the Value of New and Free Goods in the Digital Economy
w25689 D. Mark Anderson
Daniel I. Rees
Tianyi Wang

The Phenomenon of Summer Diarrhea and its Waning, 1910-1930
w25663 Ethan J. Schmick
Allison Shertzer

The Impact of Early Investments in Urban School Systems in the United States
w25653 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

The Total Risk Premium Puzzle
w25646 Katherine Eriksson
Katheryn Russ
Jay C. Shambaugh
Minfei Xu

Trade Shocks and the Shifting Landscape of U.S. Manufacturing
w25645 Ana Aizcorbe
David M. Byrne
Daniel E. Sichel

Getting Smart About Phones: New Price Indexes and the Allocation of Spending Between Devices and Services Plans in Personal Consumption Expenditures
w25599 Daniel Sichel
Eric von Hippel

Household Innovation, R&D, and New Measures of Intangible Capital
w25558 Daniel E. Sichel
Productivity Measurement: Racing to Keep Up
w25545 Daniel P. Gross
The Consequences of Invention Secrecy: Evidence from the USPTO Patent Secrecy Program in World War II
w25541 Marcella Alsan
Vincenzo Atella
Jay Bhattacharya
Valentina Conti
Iván Mejía-Guevara
Grant Miller

Technological Progress and Health Convergence: The Case of Penicillin in Post-War Italy
w25494 Barry Eichengreen
Asmaa El-Ganainy
Rui Esteves
Kris James Mitchener

Public Debt Through the Ages
w25490 Guillaume Blanc
Romain Wacziarg

Change and Persistence in the Age of Modernization: Saint-Germain-d'Anxure 1730-1895
w25487 Treb Allen
Costas Arkolakis

The Welfare Effects of Transportation Infrastructure Improvements
w25480 Dora Costa
Noelle Yetter
Heather DeSomer

Wartime Health Shocks and the Postwar Socioeconomic Status and Mortality of Union Army Veterans and their Children
w25461 Michael Leeds
Hugh Rockoff

Beating the Odds: Black Jockeys in the Kentucky Derby, 1870-1911
w25452 Gary Gorton
Toomas Laarits
Tyler Muir

1930: First Modern Crisis
w25431 Hugh Rockoff
On the Controversies behind the Origins of the Federal Economic Statistics
w25430 Stelios Michalopoulos
Melanie Meng Xue

Folklore
w25429 Michela Giorcelli
Nicola Lacetera
Astrid Marinoni

Does Scientific Progress Affect Culture? A Digital Text Analysis
w25426 Barry Eichengreen
From Commodity to Fiat and Now to Crypto: What Does History Tell Us?

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