NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Working Papers by Myrto Kalouptsidi

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Working Papers

September 2015Identification of Counterfactuals in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models
with Paul T. Scott, Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues: w21527
Dynamic discrete choice models (DDC) are nonparametrically not identified. However, the non-identification of DDC models does not necessarily imply non-identification of their associated counterfactuals. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the identification of counterfactual behavior and welfare for a broad class of counterfactuals. The conditions are simple to check and can be applied to virtually all counterfactuals in the DDC literature. To explore how robust counterfactuals can be to model restrictions in practice, we consider a numerical example of a monopolist’s entry problem, as well as an empirical application of agricultural land use. For each case, we provide relevant examples of both identified and non-identified counterfactuals.
May 2014Detection and Impact of Industrial Subsidies: The Case of World Shipbuilding
w20119
This paper provides a model-based empirical strategy to, (i) detect the presence and gauge the magnitude of government subsidies and (ii) quantify their impact on production reallocation across countries, industry prices, costs and consumer surplus. I construct and estimate an industry model that allows for dynamic agents in both demand and supply and apply my strategy to world shipbuilding, a classic target of industrial policy. I find strong evidence consistent with China having intervened and reducing shipyard costs by 15-20%, corresponding to 5 billion US dollars between 2006 and 2012. The subsidies led to substantial reallocation of ship production across the world, with Japan, in particular, losing significant market share. They also misaligned costs and production, while leading to ...

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