NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Working Papers by Victor Zarnowitz

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Working Papers

January 2002Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles
with Ataman Ozyildirim: w8736

Published: Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October. citation courtesy of

August 2001The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators: How to Make It More Timely
with Robert H. McGuckin, Ataman Ozyildirim: w8430
May 2000The Old and the New in U.S. Economic Expansion of the 1990s
w7721
April 1999Has the Business Cycle Been Abolished?
w6367

Published: Business Economics, vol. 33, no. 4, October 1998. pp. 39-45

March 1999Theory and History Behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age?
w7010

Published: Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 13, no. 2 (Spring 1999): 69-90.

October 1997Business Cycles Observed and Assessed: Why and How They Matter
w6230
January 1992Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance
with Phillip Braun: w3965

Published:

October 1991What is a Business Cycle?
w3863

Published: The Business Cycle: Theories and Evidence, edited by Michael T. Belongia and Michelle R. Garfinkel, pp. 3-72. Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1992.

Has Macro-Forecasting Failed?
w3867
October 1989Cost and Price Movements in Business Cycle Theories and Experience: Hypotheses of Sticky Wages and Prices (SEE ALSO WP3132-send out together)
w3131
Cost and Price Movements in Business Cycle Theories and Experience: Causes and Effects of OBserved Changes (SEE ALSO WP3131-Send out together)
w3132
February 1989Facts and Factors in the Recent Evolution of Business Cycles in the United States
w2865

Published: Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Facts and Factors in the Modern Evolution of U. S. Economic Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 77-124 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

1989Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes: Some Estimates of Their Interrelations, 1886-1982
with Phillip Braun: w2812

Published: "Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes: Some Estimates of Their Interrelations." From Analyzing Business Cycles: Essays Honoring Geoffrey H. Moore, edited by Philip A. Klein, pp. 177-205. Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, Inc., 1990.

September 1987The Regularity of Business Cycles
w2381

Published:

June 1987The Development and Role of the National Bureau's Business Cycle Chronologies
with Geoffrey H. Moore: w1394

Published: Moore, Geoffrey and Victor Zarnowitz. "The Development and Role of the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Chronologies." The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, edited by Robert J. Gordon. Chicago: UCP, 1986, pp. 735-779.

May 1987Major Changes in Cyclical Behavior
with Geoffrey H. Moore: w1395

Published:

December 1986The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting
w2099

Published:

November 1986Forecasting Recessions Under the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Law
with Geoffrey H. Moore: w2066

Published: Lahiri, Kajal and Geoffrey H. Moore (eds.) Leading economic indicators: New approaches and forecasting records. Cambridge; New York and Melbourne: Cambridge University Press, 1991.

September 1985Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence
w1503

Published:

  • Zarnowitz, Victor. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence." Journal of Economic Literature, Vol . 23, No. 2, (June 1985), pp. 523-580.
  • Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 20-76 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

June 1984Business Cycles Analysis and Expectational Survey Data
w1378
July 1983Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction
with Louis A. Lambros: w1171

Published:

1983Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts
w1070

Published:

December 1982The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys
w1053

Published:

  • Zarnowitz, Victor. "The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys." Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 3, No. 1, (January-March 1984), pp. 11-26.
  • Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 444-461 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

1982Expectations and Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys
w0845
April 1981Business Cycles and Growth: Some Reflections and Measures
w0665

Published: Zarnowitz, Victor. "Business Cycles and Growth: Some Reflections and Measures." Wirtschaftstheorie und Wirtschaftspolitik: Gedenkschrift fur Erich Preiser, edited by Wolfgang J. Muckl and Alfred E. Ott, pp. 475-508. Passau: Passavia Universitatsverlag, 1981.

December 1980On Functions, Quality, and Timeliness of Economic Information
w0608

Published: Zarnowitz, Victor. "On Functions, Quality, and Timeliness of Economic Information." The Journal of Business, Vol. 55, No. 1, (January 1982), pp. 87-11 9.

April 1979An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Forecasts of Aggregate Income, Output, and the Price Level
r0010

Published: Zarnowitz, Victor. "An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Forecasts of Aggregate Income, Output, and the Price Level. Journal of Business, Vol. 52, No. 1, (January 1979), pp. 1-33.

February 1979Information, Measurement, And Prediction In Economics
w0318
May 1978Forecasting with the Index of Leading Indicators
with Beatrice N. Vaccara: w0244
1978On the Accuracy and Properties of Recent Macroeconomic Forecasts
w0229

Published: American Economic Review, Vol. 68, no. 2 (1978): 313-319.

July 1973A Review of Cyclical Indicators for the United States: Preliminary Results
w0006

Published: (Published as "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: A Review of Theories and Evidence") Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 23,no. 2 (1985): 523-580.

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