NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Working Papers by Til Schuermann

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Working Papers

May 2006Managing Bank Liquidity Risk: How Deposit-Loan Synergies Vary with Market Conditions
with Evan Gatev, Philip E. Strahan: w12234
Liquidity risk in banking has been attributed to transactions deposits and their potential to spark runs or panics. We show instead that transactions deposits help banks hedge liquidity risk from unused loan commitments. Bank stock-return volatility increases with unused commitments, but the increase is smaller for banks with high levels of transactions deposits. This deposit-lending risk management synergy becomes more powerful during periods of tight liquidity, when nervous investors move funds into their banks. Our results reverse the standard notion of liquidity risk at banks, where runs from depositors had been seen as the cause of trouble.
July 2005Global Business Cycles and Credit Risk
with M. Hashem Pesaran, Björn-Jakob Treutler: w11493
The potential for portfolio diversification is driven broadly by two characteristics: the degree to which systematic risk factors are correlated with each other and the degree of dependence individual firms have to the different types of risk factors. Using a global vector autoregressive macroeconomic model accounting for about 80% of world output, we propose a model for exploring credit risk diversification across industry sectors and across different countries or regions. We find that full firm-level parameter heterogeneity along with credit rating information matters a great deal for capturing differences in simulated credit loss distributions. These differences become more pronounced in the presence of systematic risk factor shocks: increased parameter heterogeneity reduces shock se...
December 2004How do Banks Manage Liquidity Risk? Evidence from Equity and Deposit Markets in the Fall of 1998
with Philip E. Strahan, Evan Gatev: w10982
We report evidence from the equity market that unused loan commitments expose banks to systematic liquidity risk, especially during crises such as the one observed in the fall of 1998. We also find, however, that banks with higher levels of transactions deposits had lower risk during the 1998 crisis than other banks. These banks experienced large inflows of funds just as they were needed -- when liquidity demanded by firms taking down funds from commercial paper backup lines of credit peaked. Our evidence suggests that combining loan commitments with deposits mitigates liquidity risk, and that this deposit-lending synergy is especially powerful during period of crises as nervous investors move funds into their banks.
April 1996Exact Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Observation-Driven Econometric Models
with Francis X. Diebold: t0194
The possibility of exact maximum likelihood estimation of many observation-driven models remains an open question. Often only approximate maximum likelihood estimation is attempted, because the unconditional density needed for exact estimation is not known in closed form. Using simulation and nonparametric density estimation techniques that facilitate empirical likelihood evaluation, we develop an exact maximum likelihood procedure. We provide an illustrative application to the estimation of ARCH models, in which we compare the sampling properties of the exact estimator to those of several competitors. We find that, especially in situations of small samples and high persistence, efficiency gains are obtained. We conclude with a discussion of directions for future research, including a...

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