NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Working Papers by Thomas A. Abbott, III

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Working Papers

February 2005The Cost of US Pharmaceutical Price Reductions: A Financial Simulation Model of R&D Decisions
with John A. Vernon: w11114
Previous empirical studies that have examined the links between pharmaceutical price controls, profits, cash flows, and investment in research and development (R&D) have been largely based on retrospective statistical analyses of firm- and/or industry-level data. These studies, which have contributed numerous insights and findings to the literature, relied upon ad hoc reduced-form model specifications. In the current paper we take a very different approach: a prospective micro-simulation approach. Using Monte Carlo techniques we model how future price controls in the U.S. will impact early-stage product development decisions in the pharmaceutical industry. This is done within the context of a net present value (NPV) framework that appropriately reflects the uncertainty associated with R&D ...

Published: Thomas A. Abbott & John A. Vernon, 2007. "The cost of US pharmaceutical price regulation: a financial simulation model of R&D decisions," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4-5), pages 293-306.

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