NBER Working Papers by Takero Doi

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Working Papers

August 2011Japanese Government Debt and Sustainability of Fiscal Policy
with Takeo Hoshi, Tatsuyoshi Okimoto: w17305
We construct quarterly series of the revenues, expenditures, and debt outstanding for Japan from 1980 to 2010, and analyze the sustainability of the fiscal policy. We pursue three approaches to examine the sustainability. First, we calculate the minimum tax rate that stabilizes the debt to GDP ratio given the future government expenditures. Using 2010 as the base year, we find that the government revenue to GDP ratio must rise permanently to 40%-47% (from the current 33%) to stabilize the debt to GDP ratio. Second, we estimate the response of the primary surplus when the debt to GDP ratio increases. We allow the relationship to fluctuate between two "regimes" using a Markov switching model. In both regimes, the primary surplus to GDP ratio fails to respond positively to debt, which s...


July 2006Sustainability, Debt Management, and Public Debt Policy in Japan
with Toshihiro Ihori, Kiyoshi Mitsui: w12357
The purpose of this paper is to analyze sustainability issues of Japan%u2019s fiscal policy and then to discuss the debt management policy using the theoretical models and numerical studies. We also investigate the desirable coordination of fiscal and monetary authorities toward fiscal reconstruction. We include a potential possibilities of the government bonds in our theoretical model. The public bonds, therefore, cannot be sold when the issuance leads the amount of debt outstanding to be more than a certain level. In this respect, the fiscal authority has to take into account the upper limit of stocks of public debt. This possibility of debt default provides the fiscal authority to issue public bonds strategically in an earlier period. A strategic behavior of fiscal authority induces...

Published: Sustainability, Debt Management, and Public Debt Policy in Japan, Takero Doi, Toshihiro Ihori, Kiyoshi Mitsui. in Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia, NBER-EASE, Volume 16, Ito and Rose. 2007

December 2002Paying for the FILP
with Takeo Hoshi: w9385
This paper examines the financial health of the Fiscal Investment and Loan Program (FILP) as of the end of March 2001. We study the financial conditions of FILP recipients, which include public corporations and local governments. We find many are de facto insolvent. Our estimates suggest as much as 75% of the FILP loans are bad. The expected losses are estimated to be about ?75 trillion (over 15% of GDP). We also studied the effects of the FILP reform of April 2001, which tries to introduce market discipline in allocation of FILP funds. No significant changes in financial flow are detected, yet. The financial market seems to differentiate the newly introduced FILP agency bonds, which are supposed to without government guarantee, from government guaranteed bonds. It is too early to tell, ho...

Published: Paying for the FILP, Takero Doi, Takeo Hoshi. in Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan, Blomström, Corbett, Hayashi, and Kashyap. 2003

Contact and additional information for this authorAll NBER papers and publicationsNBER Working Papers onlyInformation about this author at RePEc

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