NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Working Papers by Steven Posner

Contact and additional information for this authorAll publicationsWorking Papers only

Working Papers

February 2001The Pricing of Event Risks with Parameter Uncertainty
with Kenneth A. Froot: w8106
Financial instruments whose payoffs are linked to exogenous events, such as the occurrence of a natural catastrophe or an unusual weather pattern depend crucially on actuarial models for determining event (e.g., default) probabilities. In many instances, investors appear to receive premiums far in excess of these modeled actuarial probabilities, even for event risks that are uncorrelated with returns on other financial assets. Some have attributed these larger spreads to uncertainty in the probabilities generated by the models. We provide a simple model of such 'parameter uncertainty' and demonstrate how it affects rational investors' demand for event risk exposures. We show that while parameter uncertainty does indeed affect bond spreads, it does not tend to increase spreads by much. In...

Contact and additional information for this authorAll publicationsWorking Papers only

 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
Data
People
About

Support
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us