NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Working Papers by Seonghoon Cho

Contact and additional information for this authorAll publicationsWorking Papers only

Working Papers

August 2012Refining Linear Rational Expectations Models and Equilibria
with Bennett T. McCallum: w18348
This paper proposes forward convergence as a model refinement scheme for linear rational expectations (LRE) models and an associated no-bubble condition as a solution selection criterion. We relate these two concepts to determinacy and characterize the complete set of economically relevant rational expectations solutions to the LRE models under determinacy and indeterminacy. Our results show (1) why a determinate solution is economically meaningful in most, but not all, cases, and (2) that those models that are not forward-convergent have no economically relevant solutions.
May 2011Macroeconomic Regimes
with Lieven Baele, Geert Bekaert, Koen Inghelbrecht, Antonio Moreno: w17090
We estimate a New-Keynesian macro model accommodating regime-switching behavior in monetary policy and in macro shocks. Key to our estimation strategy is the use of survey-based expectations for inflation and output. We identify accommodating monetary policy before 1980, with activist monetary policy prevailing most but not 100% of the time thereafter. Systematic monetary policy switched to the activist regime in the 2000-2005 period through an aggressive lowering of interest rates. Discretionary policy spells became less frequent since 1985, but the Volcker period is identified as a discretionary period. Output shocks shift to the low volatility regime around 1985 whereas inflation shocks do so only around 1990, suggesting active monetary policy may have played role in anchoring inflation...
May 2005New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure
with Geert Bekaert, Antonio Moreno: w11340
This article complements the structural New-Keynesian macro framework with a no-arbitrage affine term structure model. Whereas our methodology is general, we focus on an extended macro-model with an unobservable time-varying inflation target and the natural rate of output which are filtered from macro and term structure data. We obtain large and significant estimates of the Phillips curve and real interest rate response parameters. Our model also delivers strong contemporaneous responses of the entire term structure to various macroeconomic shocks. The inflation target dominates the variation in the "level factor" whereas the monetary policy shocks dominate the variation in the "slope and curvature factors".

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