NBER Working Papers by Saman Majd

This paper examines the implications of the learning curve in a world of uncertainty. We consider a competitive firm whose costs decline with cumulative output. Because the price of the firm's output evolves stochastically, future production and cumulative output are unknown, and are contingent on future prices and costs. We derive an optimal decision rule that maximizes the firm's market value: produce when price exceeds a critical level, which is a declining function of cumulative output. We show how the shadow value of cumulative production, as well as the total value of the firm, depend on the volatility of price and other parameters. Over the relevant range of prices, uncertainty reduces the shadow value of cumulative production, and therefore increases the critical price required for...

Many investment projects have the following characteristics: (i) spending decisions and cash outlays occur sequentially over time, (ii) there is a maximum rate at which outlays and construction can proceed -- it takes "time to build," and (iii) the project yields no cash return until it is actually completed. Furthermore, the pattern of investment outlays is usually flexible,and can be adjusted as new information arrives. For such projects traditional discounted cash flow criteria, which treat the spending pattern as fixed, are inadequate as a guide for project evaluation. This paper develops an explicit model of investment projects with these characteristics, and uses option pricing methods to derive optimal decision rules for investment outlays over the entire construction program. Numer...

This paper investigates the impact of tax asymmetries (the lack of full loss offsets) under current corporate income tax law and a stylized tax reform proposal. The government's tax claim on the firm's pretax cash flows is modelled as a series of path-dependent call options and valued by option pricing procedures and Monte Carlo simulation.The tax reform investigated reduces the statutory tax rate, eliminates the investment tax credit and sets tax depreciation approximately equal to economic depreciation. These changes would increase the effective tax rate on marginal investments by firms that always pay taxes, but dramatically reduce the potential burden of tax asymmetries. "Stand-alone" investments, which are exposed to the greatest burden, are uniformly more valuable under this reform, ...

This paper explores the effects of tax asymmetries on the value of risky capital investments made by corporations.The government's claim on the firm is shown to be equivalent to a portfolio of options on the firm's revenues. The tax law's provisions for carrying tax losses forward and backward are introduced, necessitating a numerical solution for the value ofthe government's claim. The results show that asymmetric taxation of operating gains and losses can significantly affect the after-tax net present value of corporate investment opportunities.