NBER Working Papers by Russell Hillberry

We propose two distinct approaches to the measurement of industry upstreamness (or average distance from final use) and show that they yield an equivalent measure. Furthermore, we provide two additional interpretations of this measure, one of them related to the concept of forward linkages in Input-Output analysis. On the empirical side, we construct this measure for 426 industries using the 2002 US Input-Output Tables. We also verify the stability of upstreamness across countries in the OECD STAN database, albeit with a more aggregated industry classification. Finally, we present an application that explores the determinants of the average upstreamness of exports at the country level using trade flows for 2002.

A large literature has shown that geographic frictions reduce trade, but has not clarified precisely why. We provide insights into why such frictions matter by examining which parts of trade these frictions reduce most. Using data that tracks manufacturers' shipments within the United States on an exceptionally fine grid, we find that the pattern of shipments is extremely localized. Shipments within 5-digit zip codes, which have a median radius of just 4 miles, are 3 times larger than shipments outside the zip code. We decompose aggregate shipments into extensive and intensive margins, and show that distance and other frictions reduce aggregate trade values primarily by reducing the number of commodities shipped and the number of establishments shipping. We consider two broad reasons for t...

We show that 'home bias' in trade patterns will arise endogenously due to the co-location decisions of intermediate and final goods producers. Our model identifies four implications of home bias arising out of specialized industrial demands. Regions absorb different bundles of goods. Buyers and sellers of intermediate goods co-locate. Intermediate input trade is highly localized. The effect of spatial frictions on trade are magnified. These implications are examined and confirmed using a unique data source that matches the detailed subnational geography of shipments to the characteristics of the shipping establishments. Our results broaden the measurement and interpretation of home bias, and provide new evidence on the role of intermediate inputs in concentrating production.

Wolf (2000) demonstrates that trade within the U.S. appears substantially impeded by state borders. We revisit this finding with improved data. We show that much intra-national home bias can be explained by wholesaling activity. Shipments by wholesalers are much more localized within states than shipments from manufacturing establishments. Controlling for relative prices and the use of actual, rather than imputed, shipment distances also reduces home bias estimates.