NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Working Papers by Rodrigo Valdes

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Working Papers

April 2001Lending Booms: Latin America and the World
with Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Oscar Landerretche: w8249
Recent theories of crisis put lending booms at the root of financial collapses. Yet lending booms may be a natural consequence of economic development and fluctuations. So are lending booms dangerous? In this paper, we investigate empirically this question using a broad sample of lending boom episodes over 40 years, with a special eye for Latin America. Our results indicate that (1) lending booms are often associated with (i) a domestic investment boom; (ii) an increase in domestic interest rates; (iii) a worsening of the current account; (iv) a declines in reserves; (v) a real appreciation; (vi) a decline in output growth, (2) 'typical' lending booms do not increase substantially the vulnerability of the banking sector or the balance of payments. Comparing Latin America and the rest o...
April 2000Controls on Capital Inflows: Do they Work?
with Jose De Gregorio, Sebastian Edwards: w7645
This paper analyzes the effectiveness of capital controls, in particular the Chilean experience with the use of the unremunerated reserve requirement. We examine the effects on interest rates, real exchange rate, and the volume and composition of capital inflows. The effects are elusive and it is difficult to pin down long-run effects. Although after the unremunerated reserve requirement was introduced there was an increase in the interest rate differential, the econometric evidence does not show it has a significant long-run effect on interest rate differentials. There are also no effects on the real exchange rate. However, the more persistent and significant effect is on the composition of capital inflows, tilting composition toward longer maturity.
July 1996The Aftermath of Appreciations
with Ilan Goldfajn: w5650
This paper empirically analyzes a broad range of real exchange rate appreciation episodes. The cases are identified after compiling a large sample of monthly multilateral real exchange rates from 1960 to 1994. The objective is twofold. First, the paper studies the dynamics of appreciations, avoiding the sample selection of analyzing exclusively the crisis (or devaluation) cases. Second, the paper analyzes the mechanism by which overvaluations are corrected. In particular, we are interested in the proportion of the reversions that occur through nominal devaluations, rather than cumulative inflation differentials. We calculate the probability of undoing appreciations without nominal depreciations for various degrees of misalignment. The overall conclusion is that it is very unlikely t...

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