NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Working Papers by Robert J. Shiller

Contact and additional information for this authorAll papers and publicationsWorking Papers onlyWorking Papers with publication info

Working Papers

January 2013Wealth Effects Revisited: 1975-2012
with Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley: w18667
September 2012What Have They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets
with Karl E. Case, Anne Thompson: w18400
May 2011Continuous Workout Mortgages
with Rafal M. Wojakowski, M. Shahid Ebrahim, Mark B. Shackleton: w17007
March 2011Wealth Effects Revisited 1978-2009
with Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley: w16848
May 2009Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets
with John Y. Campbell, Luis M. Viceira: w15014
April 2008Derivatives Markets for Home Prices
w13962
October 2007Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership
w13553
Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Economic Models
w13558
May 2005The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security: A Review
w11300
December 2003The Invention of Inflation-Indexed Bonds in Early America
w10183
November 2002One Simple Test of Samuelson's Dictum for the Stock Market
with Jeeman Jung: w9348
November 2001Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market Versus the Housing Market
with Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley: w8606
April 2001Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update
with John Y. Campbell: w8221
June 1999Designing Indexed Units of Account
w7160
March 1999Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence
w7008
July 1998Social Security and Institutions for Intergenerational, Intragenerational, and International Risk Sharing
w6641
May 1998Moral Hazard in Home Equity Conversion
with Allan N. Weiss: w6552
January 1998Indexed Units of Account: Theory and Assessment of Historical Experience
w6356
Human Behavior and the Efficiency of the Financial System
w6375
February 1997The Significance of the Market Portfolio
with Stefano Athanasoulis: t0209
May 1996A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt
with John Y. Campbell: w5587
April 1996Why Do People Dislike Inflation?
w5539
September 1995Labor Income Indices Designed for Use in Contracts Promoting Income Risk Management
with Ryan Schneider: w5254
April 1995Mortgage Default Risk and Real Estate Prices: The Use of Index-Based Futures and Options in Real Estate
with Karl E. Case, Allan N. Weiss: w5078
World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting International Risk Sharing Opportunities
with Stefano Athanasoulis: w5095
August 1994Home Equity Insurance
with Allan N. Weiss: w4830
December 1993Measuring Asset Values for Cash Settlement in Derivative Markets: Hedonic Repeated Measures indices and Perpetual Futures
t0131
July 1993Aggregate Income Risks and Hedging Mechanisms
w4396
August 1992Hunting for Homo Sovieticus: Situational versus Attitudinal Factors in Economic Behavior
with Maxim Boycko, Vladimir Korobov: r1741
March 1991Actual and Warranted Relations Between Asset Prices
with Andrea E. Beltratti: w3640
February 1991Speculative Behavior in the Stock Markets: Evidence from the United States and Japan
with Fumiko Kon-Ya, Yoshiro Tsutsui: w3613
October 1990Stock Prices and Bond Yields: Can Their Comovements Be Explained in Terms of Present Value Models?
with Andrea E. Beltratti: w3464
September 1990Popular Attitudes Towards Free Markets: The Soviet Union and the United States Compared
with Maxim Boycko, Vladimir Korobov: w3453
May 1990Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market
with Karl E. Case: w3368
October 1989Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View
with John Y. Campbell: w3153
February 1989Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends
w2846
December 1988Initial Public Offerings: Investor Behavior and Underpricing
w2806
October 1988The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets
with Karl E. Case: w2748
August 1988Investor Behavior in the October 1987 Stock Market Crash: The Case of Japan
with Fumiko Konya, Yoshiro Tsutsui: w2684
July 1988The Dividend Ratio Model and Small Sample Bias: A Monte Carlo Study
with John Y. Campbell: t0067
April 1988Interpreting Cointegrated Models
with John Y. Campbell: w2568
February 1988The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts
with Ray C. Fair: w2503
The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes
with Karl E. Case: w2506
Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends
with John Y. Campbell: w2511
November 1987Investor Behavior in the October 1987 Stock Market Crash: Survey Evidence
w2446
September 1987Prices of Single Family Homes Since 1970: New Indexes for Four Cities
with Karl E. Case: w2393
August 1987The Term Structure of Interest Rates
with J. Huston McCulloch: w2341
May 1987Econometric Modeling as Information Aggregation
with Ray C. Fair: w2233
1987Ultimate Sources of Aggregate Variability
w2129
December 1986The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors
with John Y. Campbell: w2100
June 1986Speculative Behavior of Institutional Investors
with John Pound: w1964
April 1986Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models
with John Y. Campbell: w1885
March 1986Survey Evidence on Diffusion of Investment Among Institutional Investors
with John Pound: w1851
June 1985Estimating the Continuous Time Consumption Based Asset Pricing Model
with Sanford J. Grossman, Angelo Melino: w1643
April 1985Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power versus Frequency of Observation
with Pierre Perron: t0045
Conventional Valuation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
w1610
September 1983A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates
with John Y. Campbell: w1203
August 1982Smoothness Priors and Nonlinear Regression
t0025
1982Consumption, Asset Markets, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
w0838
June 1981Consumption Correlatedness and Risk Measurement in Economies with Non trade Assets and Heterogeneous Information
with Sanford J. Grossman: w0690
October 1980Alternative Tests of Rational Expectations Models: The Case of the Term Structure
w0563
The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices
with Sanford J. Grossman: w0564
The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency
w0565
May 1980Coupon and Tax Effects on New and Seasoned Bond Yields and the Measurement of the Cost of Debt Capital
with Franco Modigliani: r0058
February 1980Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?
w0456
May 1979Can the Fed Control Real Interest Rates?
w0348
June 1975Alternative Prior Representations of Smoothness for Distributed Lag Estimation
w0089
Rational Expectations and the Dynamic Structure of Macroeconomic Models:A Critical Review
w0093

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