NBER Working Papers by Olivier J. Blanchard

Contact and additional information for this authorAll NBER papers and publicationsNBER Working Papers onlyInformation about this author at RePEc

Working Papers

February 2017Short-Run Effects of Lower Productivity Growth. A Twist on the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis
with Guido Lorenzoni, Jean-Paul L'Huillier: w23160
July 2016Currency Wars, Coordination, and Capital Controls
November 2015Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications
with Eugenio Cerutti, Lawrence Summers: w21726
October 2015Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence
with Jonathan D. Ostry, Atish R. Ghosh, Marcos Chamon: w21619
July 2015Jump Starting the Euro Area Recovery: Would a Rise in Core Fiscal Spending Help the Periphery?
with Christopher J. Erceg, Jesper Lindé: w21426
Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?
with Gustavo Adler, Irineu de Carvalho Filho: w21427
February 2013Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers
with Daniel Leigh: w18779

Published: Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 117-20, May. citation courtesy of

October 2009Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s? A structural interpretation of changes in the macroeconomic effects of oil prices
with Marianna Riggi: w15467

Published: Olivier J. Blanchard & Marianna Riggi, 2013. "WHY ARE THE 2000s SO DIFFERENT FROM THE 1970s? A STRUCTURAL INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF OIL PRICES," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(5), pages 1032-1052, October. citation courtesy of

May 2009News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration
with Jean-Paul L'Huillier, Guido Lorenzoni: w15015

Published: Olivier J. Blanchard & Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Guido Lorenzoni, 2013. "News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 3045-70, December. citation courtesy of

August 2008The State of Macro

Published: Olivier Blanchard, 2009. "The State of Macro," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 209-228, 05. citation courtesy of

March 2008Labor Markets and Monetary Policy: A New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment
with Jordi Gali: w13897

Published: Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2010. "Labor Markets and Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Model with Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-30, April. citation courtesy of

September 2007The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks: Why are the 2000s So Different from the 1970s?
with Jordi Gali: w13368

Published: Gali, Jordi and Mark Gertler (eds.) International Dimensions of Monetary Policy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2009.

February 2007Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries


November 2005Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model
with Jordi Gali: w11806


European Unemployment: The Evolution of Facts and Ideas

Published: Olivier Blanchard, 2006. "European unemployment: the evolution of facts and ideas," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 5-59, 01. citation courtesy of

February 2005The U.S. Current Account and the Dollar
with Francesco Giavazzi, Filipa Sa: w11137

Published: Blanchard, Oliver, Francesco Giavazzi,and Filipa Sa. "International Investors, the U.S. Current Account, and the Dollar." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1 (2005): 1-49.

June 2004The Quality of Labor Relations and Unemployment
with Thomas Philippon: w10590
April 2004The Optimal Design of Unemployment Insurance and Employment Protection. A First Pass
with Jean Tirole: w10443
March 2004Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil

Published: Giavezzi, Francesco, Ilan Goldfajn and Santiago Herrera (eds.) Inflation Targeting, Debt, and the Brazilian Experience, 1999 to 2003. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2005.

The Economic Future of Europe

Published: Blanchard, Olivier. "The Economic Future Of Europe," Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2004, v18(4,Fall), 3-26. citation courtesy of

April 2001The Perverse Effects of Partial Labor Market Reform: Fixed Duration Contracts in France
with Augustin Landier: w8219

Published: Blanchard, O. and A. Landier. "The Perverse Effects Of Partial Labour Market Reform: Fixed-Term Contracts In France," Economic Journal, 2002, v112(480,Jun), F214-F244.

February 2001Macroeconomic Effects of Regulation and Deregulation in Goods and Labor Markets
with Francesco Giavazzi: w8120

Published: Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2003. "Macroeconomic Effects Of Regulation And Deregulation In Goods And Labor Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(3), pages 879-907, August. citation courtesy of

March 2000Federalism with and without Political Centralization: China versus Russia
with Andrei Shleifer: w7616

Published: Olivier Blanchard & Andrei Shleifer, 2001. "Federalism With and Without Political Centralization: China Versus Russia," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 48(4), pages 8. citation courtesy of

February 2000What do we know about Macroeconomics that Fisher and Wicksell did not?

Published: Blanchard, Olivier. "What Do We Know About Macroeconomics That Fisher And Wicksell Did Not?," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2000, v115(4,Nov), 1375-1409. citation courtesy of

August 1999The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence
with Justin Wolfers: w7282

Published: Economic Journal, Vol. 110 (March 2000): 1-33. citation courtesy of

July 1999An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output
with Roberto Perotti: w7269

Published: Blanchard, Olivier and Robert Perotti. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2002, v107(4,Nov), 1329-1368. citation courtesy of

February 1999Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence
with Lawrence Katz: w6924

Published: American Economic Review, Vol. 89 (May 1999): 69-74. citation courtesy of

July 1998What Hides Behind an Umemployment Rate: Comparing Portuguese and U.S. Unemployment
with Pedro Portugal: w6636

Published: Blanchard, Olivier and Pedro Portugal. "What Hides Behind An Unemployment Rate: Comparing Portuguese And U.S. Labor Markets," American Economic Review, 2001, v91(1,Mar), 187-207.

May 1998Revisiting European Unemployment: Unemployment, Capital Accumulation, and Factor Prices


  • Geary Lecture, ESRI, June 1998.
  • Blanchard, Olivier, 1998. "Revisiting European Unemployment : Unemployment, Capital Accumulation and Factor Prices," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number 28.

November 1996What We Know and Do Not Know About the Natural Rate of Unemployment
with Lawrence F. Katz: w5822

Published: Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11, winter 1997, pp.51-72. citation courtesy of

May 1994On the Speed of Transition Central Europe
with Philippe Aghion: w4736


January 1993What do Firms do with Cash Windfalls?
with Florencio Lopez-de-Silane: w4258

Published: Journal of Financial Economics 36 (1994), pp. 337-360. citation courtesy of

February 1992Dynamic Efficiency, the Riskless Rate, and Debt Ponzi Games Under Uncertainty
with Philippe Weil: w3992


The Flow Approach to Labor Markets
with Peter Diamond: w4000

Published: American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1992, pp. 354-359 citation courtesy of

December 1991The Debt Burden and Debt Maturity
with Alessandro Missale: w3944

Published: American Economic Review, 84-1, March 1994, pp. 309-319. citation courtesy of

August 1991The Cyclical Behavior of the Gross Flows of U.S. Workers
with Peter Diamond: r1582

Published: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 2, pp. 85-143 and 154-155, (1990).

March 1991The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: New Answers to an Old Question
with Jean-Claude Chouraqui, Robert P. Hagemann, Nicola Sartor: r1547

Published: OECD Economic Studies, No. 15, pp. 7-36, (Autumn 1990).

Wage Bargaining and Unemployment Persistence

Published: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 23-3-1, 1991, pp. 277-292. citation courtesy of

June 1990Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages
with Peter Diamond: w3387

Published: Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 61-3 No. 208, July 1994, pp. 417-434. citation courtesy of

May 1990The Beveridge Curve
with Peter Diamond: r1405

Published: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 1, pp. 1-60 and 74-76, (1989).

The Stock Market, Profit and Investment
with Changyong Rhee, Lawrence Summers: w3370

Published: Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 108, no. 1 (February 1993): 115-136. citation courtesy of

November 1989Two Tools for Analyzing Unemployment

Published: Issues in Contemporary Economics Marc Nerlove ed. ,Macmillan/International Economics Association Volume 2, 1990,pp. 102-107

The Aggregate Matching Function
with Peter A. Diamond: w3175

Published: Growth/Productivity/Unemployment, edited by Peter Diamond, pp. 159-201. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1990.

December 1988Aggregate and Individual Price Adjustment

Published: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1, pp. 57-122, (1987)

October 1988The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances
with Danny Quah: w2737

Published: The American Economic Review, Vol. 79, No. 4, pp. 655-673, (September 1989) citation courtesy of

September 1988Unemployment: Getting the Questions Right - and some of the answers

Published: Europes Unemployment Problem, eds. Charles Bean and Jacques Dreze, MIT Press: 1991 pp. 66-89

1988Consumption: Beyond Certainty Equivalence
with N. Gregory Mankiw: w2496

Published: The American Economic Review, Vol. 78, No. 2, pp. 173-177, (May 1988). citation courtesy of

June 1987Why Does Money Affect Output? A Survey

Published: Friedman, Benjamin M. and F.H. Hahn (eds.) Handbook of Monetary Economics, Vol. II. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., 1990.

October 1986Fiscal Increasing Returns, Hysteresis, Real Wages and Unemployment
with Lawrence H. Summers: w2034

Published: European Economic Review, Vol. 31, No. 3, pp. 543-560, (April 1987). citation courtesy of

Hysteresis in Unemployment
with Lawrence H. Summers: w2035

Published: European Economic Review, Vol. 31, No. 1/2, pp. 288-295, (1987). citation courtesy of

Empirical Structural Evidence on Wages, Prices and Employment in the US

Published: "A Traditional Interpretation of Macroeconomic Fluctuations." From The American Economic Review, Vol. 79, No. 4, pp. 1146-1164, (December 1989).

Investment and Sales: Some Empirical Evidence
with Andrew B. Abel: w2050

Published: From Dynamic Econometric Modeling: Proceedings of the Third International Symposium in Economic Theory & Econometrics, edited by William A. Barnett, Ernst Berndt, and Halbert White, pp. 269-296. New York: Cambridge Univ-ersity Press, 1988.

June 1986Perspectives on High World Real Interest Rates
with Lawrence H. Summers: r0720

Published: Blanchard, Olivier J. and Lawrence H. Summers. "Perspectives on High World Real Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 2, (1984) , pp. 273-324.

Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem
with Lawrence H. Summers: w1950


December 1985Monopolistic Competition, Aggregate Demand Externalities and Real Effects of Nominal Money
with Nobuhiro Kiyotaki: w1770

Published: Blanchard, Olivier and Nobuhiro Kiyotaki. "Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, Vol. 77, No. 4, September 1987, pp. 647-666.

The Wage Price Spiral

Published: Blanchard, Olivier J. "The Wage Price Spiral," Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 101, No. 406, pp. 545-565, August 1986. citation courtesy of

June 1984Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons

Published: Blanchard, Olivier J. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 92, No. 2, April 1985, pp. 223-247. citation courtesy of

Are Business Cycles All Alike?
with Mark W. Watson: w1392


April 1984Cyclical Behavior of Prices and Quantities in the Automobile Market
with Angelo Melino: w1325

Published: Blanchard, Olivier J. and Angelo Melino. "The Cyclical Behavior of Prices and Quantities; the Case of the Automobile Market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 17, pp. 379-407, May 1986.

The Lucas Critique and the Volcker Deflation

Published: Blanchard, Olivier J. "The Lucas Critique and the Volcker Deflation." American Economic Review, Vol. 74, No. 2, (May 1984), pp. 211-215. citation courtesy of

1984Current and Anticipated Deficits, Interest Rates and Economic Activity


June 1983Inflexible Relative Prices and Price Level Inertia
May 1983The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment
with Andrew B. Abel: w1122

Published: Abel, Andrew B. and Olivier J. Blanchard. "The Expected Present Discounted Value of Profits and the Cyclical Variability of Investment," Econometrica, Vol. 54, No. 2, pp. 249-272, March 1986. citation courtesy of

March 1983Methods of Solution and Simulation for Dynamic Rational Expectations Models

Published: Blanchard, Olivier J. "Methods of Solution and Simulation for Dynamic Rational Expectations Models." Economie Appliquee, Vol. XXXVI< No. 1, (1983) pp. 27-46

August 1982Anticipations, Recessions and Policy: An Intertemporal Disequilibrium Model
with Jeffrey Sachs: w0971

Published: Blanchard, Olivier J. and Jeffrey Sachs. "Anticipations, Recessions and Policy: An Intertemporal Disequilibrium Model." Annales De L'Insee, Vol. 47/48 , (December 1982), pp. 117-144.

July 1982Identification in Dynamic Linear Models with Rational Expectations
Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets
with Mark W. Watson: w0945

Published: Blanchard, Olivier J. and Mark W. Watson. Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets." Crises in the Economic and Financial Structure, Paul Wachtel, editor, pp. 295-316. Lexington, MA: D.C. Heathand Company, (1982).

June 1982Price Asynchronization and Price Level Inertia

Published: Infiation, Debt, and Indexation, Dornbusch, R. and M. Simonsen, eds., Cambridge: MIT Press, 1983, pp. 3-25.

May 1982The Production and Inventory Behavior of the American Automobile Industry

Published: Blanchard, Olivier J. "The Production and Inventory Behavior of the American Automobile Industry." Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 91, No. 3, (June 1983), pp. 365-400. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1983. citation courtesy of

April 1982An Intertemporal Model of Saving and Investment
with Andrew B. Abel: w0885

Published: Abel, Andrew B., & Oliver J. Blanchard. "An Intertemporal Model of Saving and Investment." Econometrica, Vol. 51, No. 3, (May 1983), pp. 675-692. citation courtesy of

Contact and additional information for this authorAll NBER papers and publicationsNBER Working Papers onlyInformation about this author at RePEc

NBER Videos

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email:

Contact Us