NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Working Papers by Michael L. Wachter

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Working Papers

April 1992Union Threat Effects and Nonunion Industry Wage Differentials
with David Neumark: w4046
We investigate the impact of union strength on changes in nonunion wages and employment. The prevailing model in this area is the threat model, which predicts that increases in union strength cause increases in nonunion wages and decreases in nonunion employment. In testing the threat model, we are also testing two alternatives, the crowding and complements models. In contrast to the prediction of the threat model, decreases in the percent organized (reflecting a declining union threat) are associated with increases in the nonunion wage. Furthermore, increases in union wages appear to decrease, rather than to increase, nonunion wages. Evidence on the determinants of intra-industry variation in nonunion wage premia is somewhat more consistent with the crowding model and is strikingly consis...
August 1983Learning by Observing and the Distribution of Wages
with Stephen Ross, Paul J. Taubman: r0395
August 1982Time Series Changes in Youth Joblessness
with Choongsoo Kim: w0384
This study presents a time series analysis of the youth unemployment problem stressing the cohort overcrowding effect, a result of the baby-boom induced imbalance between younger and older workers. Several techniques are used to study the problem. First, reduced form unemployment equations are estimated for the disaggregated youth groups. The results indicate that secular swings in female and white youth unemployment rates do track well with the cohort imbalance hypothesis. However, relative increases in black male unemployment remain unexplained by this model. Second, alternative measures of youth unemployment are developed by treating school enrollment and military service as equivalent to employment. In addition, several employment-to-population ratio measures are explored. Third, equat...

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