NBER Working Papers by Menzie D. Chinn

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Working Papers

January 2014For a Few Dollars More: Reserves and Growth in Times of Crises
with Matthieu Bussière, Gong Cheng, Noëmie Lisack: w19791
May 2013Post-recession US Employment through the Lens of a Non-linear Okun’s law
with Laurent Ferrara, Valérie Mignon: w19047
October 2012Long Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity Re-Assessed
with Saad Quayyum: w18482
March 2012Are Chinese Trade Flows Different?
with Yin-Wong Cheung, XingWang Qian: w17875
October 2011A Forensic Analysis of Global Imbalances
with Barry Eichengreen, Hiro Ito: w17513
September 2010The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time
with Kavan J. Kucko: w16398
April 2010Surfing the Waves of Globalization: Asia and Financial Globalization in the Context of the Trilemma
with Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito: w15876
March 2010The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures
with Olivier Coibion: w15830
January 2009China's Current Account and Exchange Rate
with Yin-Wong Cheung, Eiji Fujii: w14673
December 2008Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time
with Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito: w14533
October 2008A Faith-based Initiative: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment?
with Shang-Jin Wei: w14420
July 2008Private Information and a Macro Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set
with Michael J. Moore: w14175
Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment: The Yuan and Other Currencies
with Yin-Wong Cheung, Eiji Fujii: w14168
April 2008The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency
with Jeffrey A. Frankel: w13909
September 2007East Asia and Global Imbalances: Saving, Investment, and Financial Development
with Hiro Ito: w13364
January 2007The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation
with Yin-Wong Cheung, Eiji Fujii: w12850
August 2006Conventional and Unconventional Approaches to Exchange Rate Modeling and Assessment
with Ron Alquist: w12481
July 2006ICT Use in the Developing World: An Analysis of Differences in Computer and Internet Penetration
with Robert W. Fairlie: w12382
December 2005Three Current Account Balances: A "Semi-Structuralist" Interpretation
with Jaewoo Lee: w11853
November 2005Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World "Savings Glut"
with Hiro Ito: w11761
October 2005Supply Capacity, Vertical Specialization and Tariff Rates: The Implications for Aggregate U.S. Trade Flow Equations
August 2005Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?
with Jeffrey Frankel: w11510
A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation
May 2005What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions
with Hiro Ito: w11370
January 2005Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era
with Guy Meredith: w11077
The Predictive Content of Energy Futures: An Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline
with Michael LeBlanc, Olivier Coibion: w11033
August 2004The Determinants of the Global Digital Divide: A Cross-Country Analysis of Computer and Internet Penetration
with Robert Fairlie: w10686
October 2003The Chinese Economies in Global Context: The Integration Process and Its Determinants
with Yin-Wong Cheung, Eiji Fujii: w10047
March 2003A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time
with Kristin J. Forbes: w9555
Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined
December 2002Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?
with Yin-Wong Cheung, Antonio Garcia Pascual: w9393
May 2002Capital Account Liberalization, Institutions and Financial Development: Cross Country Evidence
with Hiro Ito: w8967
March 2002Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate Puzzle
with Ron Alquist: w8824
September 2000Fin de Siecle Real Interest Parity
with Eiji Fujii: w7880
International Capital Inflows, Domestic Financial Intermediation and Financial Crises under Imperfect Information
with Kenneth M. Kletzer: w7902
March 2000Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration
with Eswar S. Prasad: w7581
February 2000How Do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?
with Yin-Wong Cheung, Ian W. Marsh: w7524
November 1999Traders, Market Microstructure and Exchange Rate Dynamics
with Yin-Wong Cheung: w7416
Macroeconomic Implications of the Beliefs and Behavior of Foreign Exchange Traders
with Yin-Wong Cheung: w7417
October 1999Market Structure and the Persistence of Sectoral Real Exchange Rates
with Yin-Wong Cheung, Eiji Fujii: w7408
April 1999Latin America and East Asia in the Context of an Insurance Model of Currency Crises
with Michael P. Dooley, Sona Shrestha: w7091
February 1999Are Macroeconomic Forecasts Informative? Cointegration Evidence from the ASA-NBER Surveys
with Yin-Wong Cheung: w6926
November 1998Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity
with Guy Meredith: w6797
August 1998On the Won and Other East Asian Currencies
April 1998Before the Fall: Were East Asian Currencies Overvalued?
The Current Account and the Real Exchange Rate: A Structural VAR Analysis of Major Currencies
with Jaewoo Lee: w6495
July 1997Monetary Policy in Japan, Germany and the United States: Does One Size Fit All?
with Michael P. Dooley: w6092
The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates
April 1997Sectoral Productivity, Government Spending and Real Exchange Rates: Empirical Evidence for OECD Countries
February 1997Integration, Cointegration and the Forecast Consistency of Structural Exchange Rate Models
with Yin-Wong Cheung: w5943
November 1996Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP
with Yin-Wong Cheung: t0206
Financial and Capital Account Liberalization in the Pacific Basin: Korea and Taiwan during the 1980's
with William F. Maloney: w5814
August 1996Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of 14 Countries
with Louis Johnston: w5709
November 1995Financial Repression and Capital Mobility: Why Capital Flows and Covered Interest Rate Differentials Fail to Measure Capital Market Integration
with Michael P. Dooley: w5347
September 1995Asia-Pacific Capital Markets: Measurement of Integration and the Implications for Economic Activity
with Michael Dooley: w5280
August 1991Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests For a Cross- Section of 17 Currencies
with Jeffrey Frankel: w3806
Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies
with Jeffrey Frankel: w3807

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