NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Working Papers by Menzie D. Chinn

Contact and additional information for this authorAll NBER papers and publicationsNBER Working Papers onlyInformation about this author at RePEc

Working Papers

January 2014For a Few Dollars More: Reserves and Growth in Times of Crises
with Matthieu Bussière, Gong Cheng, Noëmie Lisack: w19791
May 2013Post-recession US Employment through the Lens of a Non-linear Okun’s law
with Laurent Ferrara, Valérie Mignon: w19047
October 2012Long Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity Re-Assessed
with Saad Quayyum: w18482
March 2012Are Chinese Trade Flows Different?
with Yin-Wong Cheung, XingWang Qian: w17875

Published: Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Qian, XingWang, 2012. "Are Chinese trade flows different?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2127-2146. citation courtesy of

October 2011A Forensic Analysis of Global Imbalances
with Barry Eichengreen, Hiro Ito: w17513

Published: "A Forensic Analysis of Global Imbalances," Oxford Economic Papers (2013), (March 2013 version) (with Barry Eichengreen and Hiro Ito).

September 2010The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time
with Kavan J. Kucko: w16398
April 2010Surfing the Waves of Globalization: Asia and Financial Globalization in the Context of the Trilemma
with Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito: w15876

Published: Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2011. "Surfing the waves of globalization: Asia and financial globalization in the context of the trilemma," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 290-320, September. citation courtesy of

March 2010The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures
with Olivier Coibion: w15830

Published: "The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, January 2013 (with Olivier Coibion).

January 2009China's Current Account and Exchange Rate
with Yin-Wong Cheung, Eiji Fujii: w14673

Published: China's Current Account and Exchange Rate, Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie D. Chinn, Eiji Fujii. in China's Growing Role in World Trade, Feenstra and Wei. 2010

December 2008Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time
with Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito: w14533
October 2008A Faith-based Initiative: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment?
with Shang-Jin Wei: w14420

Published: Review of Economics and Statistics March 2013, Vol. 95, No. 1, Pages 168-184 Posted Online March 19, 2013. (doi:10.1162/REST_a_00244) © 2013 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology A Faith-Based Initiative Meets the Evidence: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment? Menzie D. Chinn University of Wisconsin, and NBER Shang-Jin Wei Columbia University and NBER

July 2008Private Information and a Macro Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set
with Michael J. Moore: w14175
Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment: The Yuan and Other Currencies
with Yin-Wong Cheung, Eiji Fujii: w14168

Published: Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009. "Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 183-206, April.

April 2008The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency
with Jeffrey A. Frankel: w13909
September 2007East Asia and Global Imbalances: Saving, Investment, and Financial Development
with Hiro Ito: w13364

Published: East Asia and Global Imbalances: Saving, Investment, and Financial Development, Hiro Ito, Menzie Chinn. in Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 18, Ito and Rose. 2009

January 2007The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation
with Yin-Wong Cheung, Eiji Fujii: w12850

Published: Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Fujii, Eiji, 2007. "The overvaluation of Renminbi undervaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 762-785, September. citation courtesy of

August 2006Conventional and Unconventional Approaches to Exchange Rate Modeling and Assessment
with Ron Alquist: w12481

Published: Ron Alquist & Menzie D. Chinn, 2008. "Conventional and unconventional approaches to exchange rate modelling and assessment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 2-13. citation courtesy of

July 2006ICT Use in the Developing World: An Analysis of Differences in Computer and Internet Penetration
with Robert W. Fairlie: w12382

Published: Menzie D. Chinn & Robert W. Fairlie, 2010. "ICT Use in the Developing World: An Analysis of Differences in Computer and Internet Penetration," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 153-167, 02. citation courtesy of

December 2005Three Current Account Balances: A "Semi-Structuralist" Interpretation
with Jaewoo Lee: w11853

Published: Chinn, Menzie D. & Lee, Jaewoo, 2009. "Three current account balances: A "Semi-Structuralist" interpretation," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 202-212, March. citation courtesy of

November 2005Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World "Savings Glut"
with Hiro Ito: w11761

Published: Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2007. "Current account balances, financial development and institutions: Assaying the world "saving glut"," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 546-569, June. citation courtesy of

October 2005Supply Capacity, Vertical Specialization and Tariff Rates: The Implications for Aggregate U.S. Trade Flow Equations
w11719
August 2005Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?
with Jeffrey Frankel: w11510

Published: Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?, Menzie Chinn, Jeffrey A. Frankel. in G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, Clarida. 2007

A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation
w11521

Published: Chinn, Menzie D. "A Primer On Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows And Competitive Devaluation," Open Economies Review, 2006, v17(1,Jan), 115-143. citation courtesy of

May 2005What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions
with Hiro Ito: w11370

Published: Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October. citation courtesy of

January 2005Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era
with Guy Meredith: w11077
The Predictive Content of Energy Futures: An Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline
with Michael LeBlanc, Olivier Coibion: w11033
August 2004The Determinants of the Global Digital Divide: A Cross-Country Analysis of Computer and Internet Penetration
with Robert Fairlie: w10686

Published: Menzie D. Chinn & Robert W. Fairlie, 2007. "The determinants of the global digital divide: a cross-country analysis of computer and internet penetration," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(1), pages 16-44, January. citation courtesy of

October 2003The Chinese Economies in Global Context: The Integration Process and Its Determinants
with Yin-Wong Cheung, Eiji Fujii: w10047

Published: Cheung, Yin-Wong, Menzie D. Chinn and Eiji Fujii. "The Chinese Economies In Global Context: The Integration Process And Its Determinants," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2006, v20(1,Mar), 128-153. citation courtesy of

March 2003A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time
with Kristin J. Forbes: w9555

Published: Kristin J. Forbes & Menzie D. Chinn, 2004. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 705-722, 09. citation courtesy of

Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined
w9521

Published: Menzie D. Chinn, 2005. "Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 460-485, October. citation courtesy of

December 2002Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?
with Yin-Wong Cheung, Antonio Garcia Pascual: w9393

Published: Cheung, Yin-Wong, Menzie D. Chinn and Antonio Garcia Pascual. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models Of The Nineties: Are Any Fit To Survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, 2005, v24(7,Nov), 1150-1175. citation courtesy of

May 2002Capital Account Liberalization, Institutions and Financial Development: Cross Country Evidence
with Hiro Ito: w8967
March 2002Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate Puzzle
with Ron Alquist: w8824
September 2000Fin de Siecle Real Interest Parity
with Eiji Fujii: w7880

Published: Fujii, Eiji and Menzie Chinn. "Fin De Siecle Real Interest Parity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2001, v11(3-4,Sep), 289-308.

International Capital Inflows, Domestic Financial Intermediation and Financial Crises under Imperfect Information
with Kenneth M. Kletzer: w7902

Published: Menzie D. Chinn & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 1999. "International capital inflows, domestic financial intermediation and financial crises under imperfect information," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep. citation courtesy of

March 2000Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration
with Eswar S. Prasad: w7581

Published: Chinn, Menzie D. and Eswar S. Prasad. "Medium-term Determinants Of Current Accounts In Industrial And Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," Journal of International Economics, 2003, v59(1,Jan), 47-76. citation courtesy of

February 2000How Do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?
with Yin-Wong Cheung, Ian W. Marsh: w7524

Published: Cheung, Yin-Wong, Menzie D. Chinn and Ian W. Marsh. "How Do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?," International Journal of Finance and Economics, 2004, v9(4,Oct), 289-306. citation courtesy of

November 1999Traders, Market Microstructure and Exchange Rate Dynamics
with Yin-Wong Cheung: w7416

Published: Cheung, Yin-Wong and Menzie David Chinn. "Currency Traders And Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey Of The US Market," Journal of International Money and Finance, 2001, v20(4,Aug), 439-471.

Macroeconomic Implications of the Beliefs and Behavior of Foreign Exchange Traders
with Yin-Wong Cheung: w7417
October 1999Market Structure and the Persistence of Sectoral Real Exchange Rates
with Yin-Wong Cheung, Eiji Fujii: w7408

Published:

  • Cheung, Yin-Wong and Kon S. Lai, "Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates," Economics Letters, Vol. 46, no. 3 (November 1994): 251-256
  • Cheung, Yin-Wong and Kon S. Lai, "Economic Growth and Stationarity of Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Some Fast-Growing Asian Countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Vol. 6, no. 1/2 (May 1998): 61-76
  • Cheung, Yin-Wong and Kon S. Lai, "On Cross-country Differences in the Persistence of Real Exchange Rates," Journal of International Economics, Vol. 50, no. 2, (April 2000): 375-397
  • International Journal of Finance & Economics, Vol. 6, no. 2 (April 2002): 95-114 citation courtesy of

April 1999Latin America and East Asia in the Context of an Insurance Model of Currency Crises
with Michael P. Dooley, Sona Shrestha: w7091

Published: Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 13 (Spring 1999): 45-68. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 18, no. 4 (August 1999): 659-681. citation courtesy of

February 1999Are Macroeconomic Forecasts Informative? Cointegration Evidence from the ASA-NBER Surveys
with Yin-Wong Cheung: w6926
November 1998Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity
with Guy Meredith: w6797

Published: Meredith, Guy and Menzie D. Chinn. “Monetary Policy and Long Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity." IMF Staff Papers 51, 3 (November 2004): 409-430.

August 1998On the Won and Other East Asian Currencies
w6671

Published: International Journal of Finance & Economics, Vol. 4, no. 2 (April 1999): 113-127 citation courtesy of

April 1998Before the Fall: Were East Asian Currencies Overvalued?
w6491

Published: Emerging Markets Review, Vol. 1, no. 2 (September 2000): 101-126 citation courtesy of

The Current Account and the Real Exchange Rate: A Structural VAR Analysis of Major Currencies
with Jaewoo Lee: w6495

Published: Lee, Jaewoo and Menzie D. Chinn. "Current Account And Real Exchange Rate Dynamics In The G7 Countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, 2006, v25(2,Mar), 257-274.

July 1997Monetary Policy in Japan, Germany and the United States: Does One Size Fit All?
with Michael P. Dooley: w6092

Published: Japanese Economic Policy Reconsidered, Freedman, Craig, ed.: Edward Elgar, 1998, pp. 179-217.

The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates
w6108

Published: Review of International Economics, Vol. 8, no. 1 (February 2000): 20-43. citation courtesy of

April 1997Sectoral Productivity, Government Spending and Real Exchange Rates: Empirical Evidence for OECD Countries
w6017

Published: (Published as "Productivity, Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate: Evidence for OECD Countries") Equilibrium Exchange Rates, MacDonald, R., and Jerome Skin, eds.: Klumer, 1999, pp. 163-190.

February 1997Integration, Cointegration and the Forecast Consistency of Structural Exchange Rate Models
with Yin-Wong Cheung: w5943

Published: Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 17, no. 5 (October 1998): 813-830. citation courtesy of

November 1996Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP
with Yin-Wong Cheung: t0206

Published: Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 15, no. 1 (January 1997): 68-73.

Financial and Capital Account Liberalization in the Pacific Basin: Korea and Taiwan during the 1980's
with William F. Maloney: w5814

Published: International Economic Journal, Vol. 12, no. 1 (Spring 1999): 53-74. citation courtesy of

August 1996Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of 14 Countries
with Louis Johnston: w5709
November 1995Financial Repression and Capital Mobility: Why Capital Flows and Covered Interest Rate Differentials Fail to Measure Capital Market Integration
with Michael P. Dooley: w5347

Published: Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (December 1997): 81-103. citation courtesy of

September 1995Asia-Pacific Capital Markets: Measurement of Integration and the Implications for Economic Activity
with Michael Dooley: w5280

Published: Menzie D. Chinn & Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "Asia Pacific Capital Markets: Integration and Implications for Economic Activity," NBER Chapters, in: Ito and Krueger, eds. Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements, NBER-EASE Volume 6, pages 169-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

August 1991Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests For a Cross- Section of 17 Currencies
with Jeffrey Frankel: w3806

Published: Review of International Economics, 1: no. 2, June 1993, 136-144 citation courtesy of

Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies
with Jeffrey Frankel: w3807

Published: Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. vol. 26, no. 4, Nov. 1994.pp. 754-770

Contact and additional information for this authorAll NBER papers and publicationsNBER Working Papers onlyInformation about this author at RePEc

 
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