NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Working Papers by Masashi Saito

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Working Papers

August 2006Expectations, Asset Prices, and Monetary Policy: The Role of Learning
with Simon Gilchrist: w12442
This paper studies the implications of financial market imperfections represented by a countercyclical external finance premium and the gradual recognition of changes in the drift of technology growth for the design of an interest rate rule. Asset price movements induced by changes in trend growth influence balance-sheet conditions that determine the external finance premium. Such movements are magnified when the private sector is imperfectly informed regarding the trend growth rate of technology. The presence of financial market imperfections provides a motivation for responding to the gap between the observed asset prices and the potential level of asset prices in addition to responding strongly to inflation. This is because the asset price gap represents distortions in the resource allo...

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