NBER Working Papers by Marcus Hagedorn

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Working Papers

January 2015The Impact of Unemployment Benefit Extensions on Employment: The 2014 Employment Miracle?
with Iourii Manovskii, Kurt Mitman: w20884
We measure the effect of unemployment benefit duration on employment. We exploit the variation induced by the decision of Congress in December 2013 not to reauthorize the unprecedented benefit extensions introduced during the Great Recession. Federal benefit extensions that ranged from 0 to 47 weeks across U.S. states at the beginning of December 2013 were abruptly cut to zero. To achieve identification we use the fact that this policy change was exogenous to cross-sectional differences across U.S. states and we exploit a policy discontinuity at state borders. We find that a 1% drop in benefit duration leads to a statistically significant increase of employment by 0.0161 log points. In levels, 1.8 million additional jobs were created in 2014 due to the benefit cut. Almost 1 million of th...
October 2013Unemployment Benefits and Unemployment in the Great Recession: The Role of Macro Effects
with Fatih Karahan, Iourii Manovskii, Kurt Mitman: w19499
We exploit a policy discontinuity at U.S. state borders to identify the labor market implications of unemployment benefit extensions. In contrast to the existing literature that focused on estimating the effects of benefit duration on job search decisions by the unemployed – the micro effect – we are guided by equilibrium labor market theory and focus on measuring the general equilibrium macro effect that operates through the response of job creation to benefit extensions. After developing a new methodology to measure the macro effect, we find that it is this effect that is very important quantitatively. In particular, benefit extensions raise equilibrium wages and lead to a sharp contraction in vacancy creation, employment, and a rise in unemployment.
December 2012Identifying Equilibrium Models of Labor Market Sorting
with Tzuo Hann Law, Iourii Manovskii: w18661
Does the market allocate the right workers to the right jobs? Since observable (to economists) variables account for only a small fraction of the wage variance in the data, to answer this question it is essential to study assortative matching between employers and employees based on their unobserved characteristics. This paper enables this line of research. We show theoretically that all parameters of the classic model of sorting based on absolute advantage in Becker (1973) with search frictions can be identified using only matched employer-employee data on wages and labor market transitions. In particular, these data are sufficient to assess whether matching between workers and firms is assortative, whether sorting is positive or negative, and to measure the potential effect on output fro...

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