NBER Working Papers by Joao Gomes

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Working Papers

March 2007Durability of Output and Expected Stock Returns
with Leonid Kogan, Motohiro Yogo: w12986
The demand for durable goods is more cyclical than that for nondurable goods and services. Consequently, the cash flows and stock returns of durable-good producers are exposed to higher systematic risk. Using the benchmark input-output accounts of the National Income and Product Accounts, we construct portfolios of durable-good, nondurable-good, and service producers. In the cross-section, an investment strategy that is long on the durable-good portfolio and short on the service portfolio earns a risk premium exceeding 4 percent annually. In the time series, an investment strategy that is long on the durable-good portfolio and short on the market portfolio earns a countercyclical risk premium. We explain these findings in a general equilibrium asset-pricing model with endogenous production...
December 2002Asset Prices and Business Cycles with Costly External Finance
with Amir Yaron, Lu Zhang: w9364
This paper asks whether the asset pricing fluctuations induced by the presence of costly external finance are empirically plausible. To accomplish this, we incorporate costly external finance into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and explore its implications for the properties of the returns on key financial assets, such as stocks, bonds and risky loans. We find that the mean and volatility of the equity premium, although small, are significantly higher than those in comparable adjustment cost models. However, we also show that these results require a procyclical financing premium, a property that seems at odds with the data.
Asset Pricing Implications of Firms' Financing Constraints
with Amir Yaron, Lu Zhang: w9365
We incorporate costly external finance in an investment-based asset pricing model and investigate whether financing frictions are quantitatively important for pricing a cross-section of expected returns. We show that common assumptions about the nature of the financing frictions are captured by a simple financing cost' function, equal to the product of the financing premium and the amount of external finance. This approach provides a tractable framework for empirical analysis. Using GMM, we estimate a pricing kernel that incorporates the effects of financing constraints on investment behavior. The key ingredients in this pricing kernel depend not only on fundamentals', such as profits and investment, but also on the financing variables, such as default premium and the amount of external f...
February 1997Equilibrium Unemployment
with Jeremy Greenwood, Sergio Rebelo: w5922
A search-theoretic general equilibrium model of frictional unemployment is shown to be consistent with some of the key regularities of unemployment over the business cycle. In the model the return to a job moves stochastically. Agents can choose either to quit and search for a better job, or continue working. Search generates job offers that agents can accept or reject. Two distinguishing features of current work relative to the existing business cycle literature on labor market fluctuations are: (i) the decision to accept or reject jobs is modeled explicitly, and (ii) there is imperfect insurance against unemployment.

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