NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Working Papers by Jeffrey A. Frankel

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Working Papers

September 2013Effects of Speculation and Interest Rates in a “Carry Trade” Model of Commodity Prices
w19463
August 2012Over-optimistic Official Forecasts in the Eurozone and Fiscal Rules
with Jesse Schreger: w18283
December 2011Sustainable Cooperation in Global Climate Policy: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets to Build on Copenhagen and Cancun
with Valentina Bosetti: w17669
November 2011On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality
with Carlos A. Végh, Guillermo Vuletin: w17619
July 2011Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications
w17239
April 2011A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile
w16945
December 2010Mauritius: African Success Story
w16569
September 2010A Comparison of Monetary Anchor Options, Including Product Price Targeting, for Commodity-Exporters in Latin America
w16362
June 2010Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey
w16125
Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis
with George Saravelos: w16047
March 2010The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey
w15836
December 2009Estimation of De Facto Flexibility Parameter and Basket Weights in Evolving Exchange Rate Regimes
with Daniel Xie: w15620
November 2009Global Climate Policy Architecture and Political Feasibility: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets to Attain 460 ppm CO2 Concentrations
with Valentina Bosetti: w15516
October 2009Are Bilateral Remittances Countercyclical?
w15419
April 2009An Elaborated Global Climate Policy Architecture: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets for All Countries in All Decades
w14876
February 2009New Estimation of China's Exchange Rate Regime
w14700
December 2008The Estimated Effects of the Euro on Trade: Why Are They Below Historical Effects of Monetary Unions Among Smaller Countries?
w14542
May 2008Estimation of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes: Synthesis of the Techniques for Inferring Flexibility and Basket Weights
with Shang-Jin Wei: w14016
April 2008The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency
with Menzie D. Chinn: w13909
May 2007Assessing China's Exchange Rate Regime
with Shang-Jin Wei: w13100
April 2007On the Rand: Determinants of the South African Exchange Rate
w13050
December 2006The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices
w12713
August 2006The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased Than in Major Currencies
with Jumana Poonawala: w12496
August 2005Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries
w11508
Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?
with Menzie Chinn: w11510
April 2005On the Renminbi: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate
w11274
March 2005Slow Passthrough Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?
with David C. Parsley, Shang-Jin Wei: w11199
December 2004Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, Or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality
with Eduardo A. Cavallo: w10957
November 2004Managing Macroeconomic Crises
with Shang-Jin Wei: w10907
November 2003The Environment and Globalization
w10090
October 2003Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging Economies
w10032
September 2002Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting Out the Causality
with Andrew K. Rose: w9201
March 2002Global Transmission of Interest Rates: Monetary Independence and Currency Regime
with Sergio L. Schmukler, Luis Serven: w8828
December 2001The Role of Industrial Country Policies in Emerging Market Crises
with Nouriel Roubini: w8634
September 2000Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime
with Sergio Schmukler, Luis Serven: w7901
August 2000Estimating the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output
with Andrew K. Rose: w7857
Globalization of the Economy
w7858
September 1999No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times
w7338
August 1996The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria
with Andrew K. Rose: w5700
Country Fund Discounts, Asymmetric Information and the Mexican Crisis of 1994: Did Local Residents Turn Pessimistic Before International Investors?
with Sergio L. Schmukler: w5714
Trade and Growth in East Asian Countries: Cause and Effect?
with David Romer, Teresa Cyrus: w5732
March 1996Trade and Growth: An Empirical Investigation
with David Romer: w5476
January 1996How Well do Foreign Exchange Markets Function: Might a Tobin Tax Help?
w5422
Regional Trading Arrangement: Natural or Super-Natural?
with Ernesto Stein, Shang-Jin Wei: w5431
Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators
with Andrew K. Rose: w5437
September 1995Open Regionalism in a World of Continental Trade Blocs
with Shang-Jin Wei: w5272
June 1995Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Capital Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence
with Chudozie Okongwu: w5156
February 1995A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries
with Andrew K. Rose: w5006
September 1994A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates
with Andrew K. Rose: w4865
December 1993Continental Trading Blocs: Are They Natural, or Super-Natural?
with Ernesto Stein, Shang-Jin Wei: w4588
The Internationalization of Equity Markets
w4590
April 1993Emerging Currency Blocs
with Shang-Jin Wei: w4335
March 1993The Constrained Asset Share Estimation (CASE) Method: Testing Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market
with Charles Engel, Kenneth A. Froot, Anthony P. Rodrigues: w4294
April 1992Is Japan Creating a Yen Bloc in East Asia and the Pacific?
w4050
November 1991Are Option-Implied Forecasts of Exchange Rate Volatility Excessively Variable?
with Shang-Jin Wei: w3910
October 1991Chartists, Fundamentalists and the Demand for Dollars
with Kenneth A. Froot: r1655
September 1991Japanese Finance: A Survey
w3156
August 1991Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests For a Cross- Section of 17 Currencies
with Menzie Chinn: w3806
Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies
with Menzie Chinn: w3807
The European Monetary System: Credible at Last?
with Steven Phillips: w3819
June 1991A Note on Internationally Coordinated Policy Packages Intended to be Robust Under Model Uncertainty
with Scott Erwin, Katharine Rockett: w3747
An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted From the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve Along Its Entire Length
with Cara S. Lown: w3751
February 1991Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market
with Kenneth A. Froot: r1512
December 1990The Making of Exchange Rate Policy in the 1980s
w3539
October 1990Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market
with Kenneth Froot: w3470
March 1990Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Matter? Disentangling the Portfolio and Expectations Effects for the Mark
with Kathryn M. Dominguez: w3299
April 1989Interpreting Tests of Forward Discount Bias Using Survey Data on Exchange Rate Expectations
with Kenneth A. Froot: w1963
March 1989Conditional Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market
with Charles Engel, Kenneth A. Froot, Anthony P. Rodrigues: w2890
February 1989Obstacles to Coordination, and a Consideration of Two Proposals to Overcome Them
w2849
Quantifying International Capital Mobility in the 1980s
w2856
November 1988Ambiguous Policy Multipliers in Theory and in Empirical Models
r1076
The Implications of Conflicting Models for Coordination between Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers
r1075
February 1988Obstacles to International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination
w2505
December 1987Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists
with Kenneth A. Froot: r0957
The Flexible Exchange Rate System: Experience and Alternatives
with Rudiger Dornbusch: w2464
August 1987Recent Estimates of Time-Variation in the Conditional Variance and in the Exchange Risk Premium
w2367
July 1987Political vs. Currency Premia in International Real Interest Differentials: A Study of Forward Rates for 24 Countries
with Alan T. MacArthur: w2309
May 1987Are Exchange Rates Excessively Variable?
with Richard Meese: w2249
April 1987International Capital Flows and Domestic Economic Policies
w2210
Short-term and Long-Term Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate: Evidence from Survey Data
with Kenneth A. Froot: w2216
October 1986International Capital Mobility in Developing Countries vs. Industrial Countries: What do Saving-Investment Correlations Tell Us?
with Michael P. Dooley, Donald Mathieson: w2043
International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination When Policy-Makers Disagree on the Model
with Katharine Rockett: w2059
September 1986Are Asset Demand Functions Determined by CAPM?
with William T. Dickens: w1113
May 1986The Sources of Disagreement Among International Macro Models and Implications for Policy Coordination
w1925
March 1986The Dollar as an Irrational Speculative Bubble: A Tale of Fundamentalisists
with Kenneth A. Froot: w1854
December 1985International Capital Mobility and Crowding Out in the U.S. Economy: Imperfect Integration of Financial Markets or of Goods Markets?
w1773
July 1985Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations
with Kenneth A. Froot: w1672
May 1985The Implications of Mean-Variance Optimization for Four Questions in International Macroeconomics
w1617
September 1983A Test of Portfolio Crowding-Out and Related Issues in Finance
w1205
June 1983Monetary and Portfolio-Balance Models of Exchange Rate Determination
r0387
May 1983Commodity Prices, Overshooting, Money Surprises, and Fed Credibility
with Gikas A. Hardouvelis: w1121
April 1983A Relationship Between Regression Tests and Volatility Tests of Market ncy
with James H. Stock: w1105
The Desirability of a Dollar Appreciation, Given a Contractionary U.S. Monetary Policy
w1110
February 1983The Mystery of the Multiplying Marks: A Modification of the Monetary Model
r0351
December 1982Why Money Announcements Move Interest Rates: An Answer from the Foreign Exchange Market
with Charles Engel: w1049
Do Asset-Demand Functions Optimize over the Mean and Variance of Real Returns? A Six-Currency Test
with Charles Engel: w1051

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