NBER Working Papers by Jaroslav Borovicka

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Working Papers

June 2014Misspecified Recovery
with Lars P. Hansen, José A. Scheinkman: w20209
Asset prices contain information about the probability distribution of future states and the stochastic discounting of these states. Without additional assumptions, probabilities and stochastic discounting cannot be separately identified. Ross (2013) introduced a set of assumptions that restrict the dynamics of the stochastic discount factor in a way that allows for the recovery of the underlying probabilities. We use decomposition results for stochastic discount factors from Hansen and Scheinkman (2009) to explain when this procedure leads to misspecified recovery. We also argue that the empirical evidence on asset prices indicates that the recovered measure would differ substantially from the actual probability distribution and that interpreting this measure as the true probability distr...
May 2014Shock Elasticities and Impulse Responses
with Lars P. Hansen, Jose A. Scheinkman: w20104
We construct shock elasticities that are pricing counterparts to impulse response functions. Recall that impulse response functions measure the importance of next-period shocks for future values of a time series. Shock elasticities measure the contributions to the price and to the expected future cash flow from changes in the exposure to a shock in the next period. They are elasticities because their measurements compute proportionate changes. We show a particularly close link between these objects in environments with Brownian information structures.
November 2009Risk Price Dynamics
with Lars Peter Hansen, Mark Hendricks, José A. Scheinkman: w15506
We present a novel approach to depicting asset pricing dynamics by characterizing shock exposures and prices for alternative investment horizons. We quantify the shock exposures in terms of elasticities that measure the impact of a current shock on future cash-flow growth. The elasticities are designed to accommodate nonlinearities in the stochastic evolution modeled as a Markov process. Stochastic growth in the underlying macroeconomy and stochastic discounting in the representation of asset values are central ingredients in our investigation. We provide elasticity calculations in a series of examples featuring consumption externalities, recursive utility, and jump risk.

Published: Jaroslav Borovička & Mark Hendricks & José A. Scheinkman, 2011. "Risk-Price Dynamics," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 3-65, Winter. citation courtesy of

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