NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Working Papers by Gerald Carlino

Contact and additional information for this authorAll publicationsWorking Papers only

Working Papers

October 2013Macro Fiscal Policy in Economic Unions: States as Agents
with Robert P. Inman: w19559
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) was the US government’s fiscal response to the Great Recession. An important component of ARRA’s $796 billion proposed budget was $318 billion in fiscal assistance to state and local governments. We examine the historical experience of federal government transfers to state and local governments and their impact on aggregate GDP growth, recognizing that lower-tier governments are their own fiscal agents. The SVAR analysis explicitly incorporates federal intergovernmental transfers, disaggregated into project (e.g., infrastructure) aid and welfare aid, as separate fiscal policies in addition to federal government purchases and federal net taxes on household and firms. A narrative analysis provides an alternative identification strategy. ...
March 2013Local Deficits and Local Jobs: Can U.S. States Stabilize Their Own Economies?
with Robert P. Inman: w18930
Using a sample of the 48 mainland U.S. states for the period 1973-2009, we study the ability of U.S. states to expand own state employment through the use of state deficit policies. The analysis allows for the facts that U.S. states are part of a wider monetary and economic union with free factor mobility across all states and that state residents and firms may purchase goods from “neighboring” states. Those purchases may generate economic spillovers across neighbors. Estimates suggest that states can increase own state employment by increasing their own deficits. There is evidence of spillovers to employment in neighboring states defined by common cyclical patterns among state economies. For large states, aggregate spillovers to its economic neighbors are approximately two-thirds of...

Contact and additional information for this authorAll publicationsWorking Papers only

 
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