NBER Working Papers by Gerald Carlino

Contact and additional information for this authorAll NBER papers and publicationsNBER Working Papers only

Working Papers

October 2015Fiscal Stimulus in Economic Unions: What Role for States?
with Robert P. Inman: w21680
The Great Recession and the subsequent passage of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act returned fiscal policy, and particularly the importance of state and local governments, to the center stage of macroeconomic policy-making. This paper addresses three questions for the design of intergovernmental macroeconomic fiscal policies. First, are such policies necessary? Analysis of US state fiscal policies show state deficits (in particular from tax cuts) can stimulate state economies in the short-run, but that there are significant job spillovers to neighboring states. Second, to internalize these spillovers, what central government fiscal policies are most effective for stimulating income and job growth? Both federal tax cuts and transfers to households and firms and intergovernme...

Forthcoming: Fiscal Stimulus in Economic Unions: What Role for States?, Gerald Carlino, Robert P. Inman. in Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 30, Brown. 2015

August 2014Agglomeration and Innovation
with William R. Kerr: w20367
This chapter reviews academic research on the connections between agglomeration and innovation. We first describe the conceptual distinctions between invention and innovation. We then describe how these factors are frequently measured in the data and some resulting empirical regularities. Innovative activity tends to be more concentrated than industrial activity, and we discuss important findings from the literature about why this is so. We highlight the traits of cities (e.g., size, industrial diversity) that theoretical and empirical work link to innovation, and we discuss factors that help sustain these features (e.g., the localization of entrepreneurial finance).
October 2013Macro Fiscal Policy in Economic Unions: States as Agents
with Robert P. Inman: w19559
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) was the US government's fiscal response to the Great Recession. An important component of ARRA's $796 billion proposed budget was $318 billion in fiscal assistance to state and local governments. We examine the historical experience of federal government transfers to state and local governments and their impact on aggregate GDP growth, recognizing that lower-tier governments are their own fiscal agents. The SVAR analysis explicitly incorporates federal intergovernmental transfers, disaggregated into project (e.g., infrastructure) aid and welfare aid, as separate fiscal policies in addition to federal government purchases and federal net taxes on household and firms. A narrative analysis provides an alternative identification strategy. ...
March 2013Local Deficits and Local Jobs: Can U.S. States Stabilize Their Own Economies?
with Robert P. Inman: w18930
Using a sample of the 48 mainland U.S. states for the period 1973-2009, we study the ability of U.S. states to expand own state employment through the use of state deficit policies. The analysis allows for the facts that U.S. states are part of a wider monetary and economic union with free factor mobility across all states and that state residents and firms may purchase goods from "neighboring" states. Those purchases may generate economic spillovers across neighbors. Estimates suggest that states can increase own state employment by increasing their own deficits. There is evidence of spillovers to employment in neighboring states defined by common cyclical patterns among state economies. For large states, aggregate spillovers to its economic neighbors are approximately two-thirds of...

Published: Carlino, Gerald A. & Inman, Robert P., 2013. "Local deficits and local jobs: Can US states stabilize their own economies?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 517-530. citation courtesy of

Contact and additional information for this authorAll NBER papers and publicationsNBER Working Papers only

NBER Videos

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email:

Contact Us