NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Working Papers by Fabien Postel-Vinay

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Working Papers

February 2009Large Employers Are More Cyclically Sensitive
with Giuseppe Moscarini: w14740
We provide new evidence that large firms or establishments are more sensitive than small ones to business cycle conditions. Larger employers shed proportionally more jobs in recessions and create more of their new jobs late in expansions, both in gross and net terms. We employ a variety of measures of relative employment growth, employer size and classification by size, and a variety of U.S. datasets, both repeated cross-sections and job flows with employer longitudinal information, starting in the mid 1970's and now spanning four business cycles. We revisit two statistical fallacies, the Regression and Reclassification biases, and show empirically that they are quantitatively modest given our focus on relative cyclical behavior. The differential growth rate of employment between large (>1...

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