NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Working Papers by Evert B. Vrugt

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Working Papers

August 2013Carry
with Ralph S.J. Koijen, Tobias J. Moskowitz, Lasse Heje Pedersen: w19325
A security’s expected return can be decomposed into its “carry” and its expected price appreciation, where carry can be measured in advance without an asset pricing model. We find that carry predicts returns both in the cross section and time series for a variety of different asset classes that include global equities, global bonds, currencies, commodities, US Treasuries, credit, and equity index options. This predictability underlies the strong returns to “carry trades” that go long high-carry and short low-carry securities, applied almost exclusively to currencies, but shown here to be a robust feature of many assets. We decompose carry returns into static and dynamic components and analyze the economic exposures. Despite unconditionally low correlations across asset classes, we find tim...
September 2011Equity Yields
with Jules H. van Binsbergen, Wouter Hueskes, Ralph Koijen: w17416
We study a new data set of prices of traded dividends with maturities up to 10 years across three world regions: the US, Europe, and Japan. We use these asset prices to construct equity yields, analogous to bond yields. We decompose these yields to obtain a term structure of expected dividend growth rates and a term structure of risk premia, which allows us to decompose the equity risk premium by maturity. We find that both expected dividend growth rates and risk premia exhibit substantial variation over time, particularly for short maturities. In addition to predicting dividend growth, equity yields help predict other measures of economic growth such as consumption growth. We relate the dynamics of growth expectations to recent events such as the financial crisis and the earthquake in Jap...

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