NBER Working Papers by Daniel Riera-Crichton

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Working Papers

September 2014Procyclical and Countercyclical Fiscal Multipliers: Evidence from OECD Countries
with Carlos A. Vegh, Guillermo Vuletin: w20533
Using non-linear methods, we argue that existing estimates of government spending multipliers in expansion and recession may yield biased results by ignoring whether government spending is increasing or decreasing. In the case of OECD countries, the problem originates in the fact that, contrary to one's priors, it is not always the case that government spending is going up in recessions (i.e., acting countercyclically). In almost as many cases, government spending is actually going down (i.e., acting procyclically). Since the economy does not respond symmetrically to government spending increases or decreases, the "true" long-run multiplier for bad times (and government spending going up) turns out to be 2.3 compared to 1.3 if we just distinguish between recession and expansion. In extreme...
October 2012Tax Multipliers: Pitfalls in Measurement and Identification
with Carlos A. Vegh, Guillermo Vuletin: w18497
We contribute to the literature on tax multipliers by analyzing the pitfalls in identification and measurement of tax shocks. Our main focus is on disentangling the discussion regarding the identification of exogenous tax policy shocks (i.e., changes in tax policy that are not the result of policymakers responding to output fluctuations) from the discussion related to the measurement of tax policy (i.e., finding a tax policy variable under the direct control of the policymaker). For this purpose, we build a novel value-added tax rate dataset and the corresponding cyclically-adjusted revenue measure at a quarterly frequency for 14 industrial countries for the period 1980-2009. We also provide complementary evidence using Romer and Romer (2010) and Barro and Redlick (2011) data for the Un...
December 2011Adjustment patterns to commodity terms of trade shocks: the role of exchange rate and international reserves policies
with Joshua Aizenman, Sebastian Edwards: w17692
We analyze the way in which Latin American countries have adjusted to commodity terms of trade (CTOT) shocks in the 1970-2007 period. Specifically, we investigate the degree to which the active management of international reserves and exchange rates impacted the transmission of international price shocks to real exchange rates. We find that active reserve management not only lowers the short-run impact of CTOT shocks significantly, but also affects the long-run adjustment of REER, effectively lowering its volatility. We also show that relatively small increases in the average holdings of reserves by Latin American economies (to levels still well below other emerging regions current averages) would provide a policy tool as effective as a fixed exchange rate regime in insulating the economy ...

Published: Aizenman, Joshua & Edwards, Sebastian & Riera-Crichton, Daniel, 2012. "Adjustment patterns to commodity terms of trade shocks: The role of exchange rate and international reserves policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 1990-2016. citation courtesy of

July 2006Real Exchange Rate and International Reserves in the Era of Growing Financial and Trade Integration
with Joshua Aizenman: w12363
This paper evaluates the impact of international reserves, terms of trade shocks and capital flows on the real exchange rate (REER). We observe that international reserves cushions the impact of TOT shocks on the REER, and that this effect is important for developing but not for industrial countries. This buffer effect is especially significant for Asian countries, and for countries exporting natural resources. Financial depth reduces the buffer role of IR in developing countries. Developing countries REER seem to be more sensitive to changes in reserve assets; whereas industrial countries display a significant relationship between hot money and REER.

Published: Aizenman, Joshua and Daniel Riera-Crichton. "Real exchange rate and international reserves in the era of growing financial and trade integration." Review of Economics and Statistics 90, 4 (2008): 812-815.

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