NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Working Papers by Dennis Quinn

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Working Papers

January 2016Winners and Losers in International Trade: The Effects on U.S. Presidential Voting
with J. Bradford Jensen, Stephen Weymouth: w21899
This paper studies how international trade influences U.S. presidential elections. We expect the positive employment effects of expanding exports to increase support for the incumbent’s party, and job insecurity from import competition to diminish such support. Our national-level models show for the first time that increasing imports are associated with decreasing incumbent vote shares, and increasing exports correlate with increasing vote shares for incumbents. These effects are large and politically consequential. We also construct U.S. county-level measures of employment in high- and low-skill tradable activities. We find increases in incumbent vote shares in counties with concentrations of employment in high-skilled tradable goods and services, and decreases in counties with concentra...
July 2013Global Supply Chains, Currency Undervaluation, and Firm Protectionist Demands
with J. Bradford Jensen, Stephen Weymouth: w19239
We examine firm participation in global supply chains to help explain a puzzling decline in protectionist demands in the U.S. despite increased import competition and ongoing currency undervaluation. To explain firm responses to undervaluation, we rely on advances in the international trade literature that uncover intraindustry heterogeneity in firm trade and investment activities. We propose that firm foreign direct investments in, and subsequent related party trade with, countries with undervalued exchange rates will lead to fewer antidumping filings. Examining the universe of U.S. manufacturing firms, we find that antidumping petition filers are more internationally engaged than non-filing peers, but conduct less related party trade with filed-against countries. High levels of related...

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