NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Working Papers by Dale Jorgenson

Contact and additional information for this authorAll NBER papers and publicationsNBER Working Papers onlyInformation about this author at RePEc

Working Papers

July 2016Education, Participation, and the Revival of U.S. Economic Growth
with Mun S. Ho, Jon D. Samuels: w22453
Labor quality growth captures the upgrading of the labor force through higher educational attainment and greater experience. We find that average levels of educational attainment of new entrants remain high, but will no longer continue to rise. Growing educational attainment will gradually disappear as a source of U.S. economic growth. We find that the investment boom of 1995-2000 drew many younger and less-educated workers into employment. Employment rates for these workers declined during the recovery of 2000-2007 and dropped further during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Based on estimates of labor quality growth, growth in total factor productivity, and growth in capital quality, we project labor productivity to grow at 1.3% per year. This implies a GDP growth rate of 1.8%.

Forthcoming: Educational Attainment and the Revival of U.S. Economic Growth, Dale W. Jorgenson, Mun S. Ho, Jon D. Samuels. in Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future U.S. GDP Growth, Hulten and Ramey. 2017

November 2005The Industry Origins of Japanese Economic Growth
with Koji Nomura: w11800
This paper presents new data on the sources of growth for the Japanese economy over the period 1960- 2000. The principal innovation is the incorporation of detailed information for individual industries, including those involved in the production of computers, communications equipment, and electronic components as information technology equipment. We show that economic growth is dominated by investments and productivity growth in information technology, both for individual industries and the economy as a whole. We also show that the revival of total factor productivity growth accounts for the modest resurgence of the Japanese economy since 1995.

Published: Jorgenson, Dale W. and Koji Nomura. "The Industry Origins Of Japanese Economic Growth," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2005, v19(4,Dec), 482-542. citation courtesy of

Information Technology and the Japanese Economy
with Kazuyuki Motohashi: w11801
In this paper we compare sources of economic growth in Japan and the United States from 1975 through 2003, focusing on the role of information technology (IT). We have adjusted Japanese data to conform to U.S. definitions in order to provide a rigorous comparison between the two economies. The adjusted data show that the share of the Japanese gross domestic product devoted to investment in computers, telecommunications equipment, and software rose sharply after 1995. The contribution of total factor productivity growth from the IT sector in Japan also increased, while the contributions of labor input and productivity growth from the Non-IT sector lagged far behind the United States. Our projection of potential economic growth in Japan from for the next decade is substantially below that in...

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