NBER Working Papers by Christopher Otrok

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Working Papers

May 2016Optimal Capital Controls and Real Exchange Rate Policies: A Pecuniary Externality Perspective
with Gianluca Benigno, Huigang Chen, Alessandro Rebucci, Eric R. Young: w22224
A new theoretical literature studies the use of capital controls to prevent financial crises in models in which pecuniary externalities justify government intervention. Within the same theoretical framework, we show that when ex-post policies such as defending the exchange rate can contain or resolve financial crises, there is no need to intervene ex-ante with capital controls. On the other hand, if crises management policies entail some efficiency costs, then crises prevention policies become part of the optimal policy mix. In the standard model economy used in the literature with costly crisis management policies, the optimal policy mix combines capital controls in tranquil times with support for the real exchange rate to limit its depreciation during crises times. The optimal policy mix...

Published: Gianluca Benigno & Huigang Chen & Christopher Otrok & Alessandro Rebucci & Eric R. Young, 2016. "Optimal Capital Controls and Real Exchange Rate Policies: A Pecuniary Externality Perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, .

September 2012Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants
with Hideaki Hirata, M. Ayhan Kose, Marco E. Terrones: w18362
We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across eighteen advanced economies over the past forty years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these questions, we first estimate the global components in house prices and various macroeconomic and financial variables. We then evaluate the roles played by a variety of global shocks, including shocks to interest rates, monetary policy, productivity, credit, and uncertainty, in explaining house price fluctuations using a wide range of FAVAR models. We find that house prices are synchronized across countries, and the degree of synchronization has increased over time. Global interest rate sho...


October 2008What Are the Driving Forces of International Business Cycles?
with Mario J. Crucini, M. Ayhan Kose: w14380
We examine the driving forces of G-7 business cycles. We decompose national business cycles into common and nation-specific components using a dynamic factor model. We also do this for driving variables found in business cycle models: productivity; measures of fiscal and monetary policy; the terms of trade and oil prices. We find a large common factor in oil prices, productivity, and the terms of trade. Productivity is the main driving force, with other drivers isolated to particular nations or sub-periods. Along these lines, we document shifts in the correlation of the G-7 component of each driver with the overall G-7 cycle.

Published: Mario Crucini & Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok. "What are the driving forces of international business cycles?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics. Volume 14, Issue 1. (January 2011) citation courtesy of

Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?
with M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar S. Prasad: w14292
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups -- industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates -- output, consumption, and investment -- into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific...

Published: M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, 05. citation courtesy of

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