NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Working Papers by Chang Hong

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Working Papers

January 2012Contractual Versus Non-Contractual Trade: The Role of Institutions in China
with Robert C. Feenstra, Hong Ma, Barbara J. Spencer: w17728
Recent research has demonstrated the importance of institutional quality at the country level for both the volume of trade and the ability to trade in differentiated goods that rely on contract enforcement. This paper takes advantage of cross-provincial variation in institutional quality in China, and export data that distinguishes between foreign and domestic exporters and processing versus ordinary trade, to show that institutional quality is a significant factor in determining Chinese provincial export patterns. Institutions matter more for processing trade, and more for foreign firms, just as we would expect from a greater reliance on contracts in these cases.
October 2007China's Exports and Employment
with Robert C. Feenstra: w13552
Dooley et al (2003, 2004a,b,c) argue that China seeks to raise urban employment by 10-12 million persons per year, with about 30% of that coming from export growth. In fact, total employment increased by 7.5-8 million per year over 1997-2005. We estimate that export growth over 1997-2002 contributed at most 2.5 million jobs per year, with most of the employment gains coming from non-traded goods like construction. Exports grew much faster over the 2000-2005 period, which could in principal explain the entire increase in employment. However, the growth in domestic demand led to three-times more employment gains than did exports over 2000-2005, while productivity growth subtracted the same amount again from employment. We conclude that exports have become increasingly important in stimulat...

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