NBER Working Papers by Arnaud Maurel

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Working Papers

October 2015The Analysis of Field Choice in College and Graduate School: Determinants and Wage Effects
with Joseph G. Altonji, Peter Arcidiacono: w21655
As the workforce has become more educated, educational decisions are no longer just about whether to acquire more, but rather what type of education to pursue. In college, individuals somewhat specialize through their choice of college major. Further specialization occurs in graduate school. This chapter investigates how majors and graduate school affect labor market outcomes as well as how the individuals make these potentially important decisions. To do so, we develop a dynamic model of educational decision-making. In light of the model, we examine the estimation issues associated with obtaining causal effects of educational choices on earnings. We then examine ways that authors have overcome the selection problem as well as the approaches authors have taken to estimate the process by wh...
October 2014Recovering Ex Ante Returns and Preferences for Occupations using Subjective Expectations Data
with Peter Arcidiacono, V. Joseph Hotz, Teresa Romano: w20626
We show that data on subjective expectations, especially on outcomes from counterfactual choices and choice probabilities, are a powerful tool in recovering ex ante treatment effects as well as preferences for different treatments. In this paper we focus on the choice of occupation, and use elicited beliefs from a sample of male undergraduates at Duke University. By asking individuals about potential earnings associated with counterfactual choices of college majors and occupations, we can recover the distribution of the ex ante monetary returns to particular occupations, and how these returns vary across majors. We then propose a model of occupational choice which allows us to link subjective data on earnings and choice probabilities with the non-pecuniary preferences for each occupation. ...
June 2014Extremal Quantile Regressions for Selection Models and the Black-White Wage Gap
with Xavier D'Haultfoeuille, Yichong Zhang: w20257
We consider the estimation of a semiparametric location-scale model subject to endogenous selection, in the absence of an instrument or a large support regressor. Identification relies on the independence between the covariates and selection, for arbitrarily large values of the outcome. In this context, we propose a simple estimator, which combines extremal quantile regressions with minimum distance. We establish the asymptotic normality of this estimator by extending previous results on extremal quantile regressions to allow for selection. Finally, we apply our method to estimate the black-white wage gap among males from the NLSY79 and NLSY97. We find that premarket factors such as AFQT and family background characteristics play a key role in explaining the level and evolution of the blac...
May 2014The Career Prospects of Overeducated Americans
with Brian Clark, Clément Joubert: w20167
In this paper we analyze career dynamics for the large share of U.S. workers who have more schooling than their peers in the same occupation. We use data from the NLSY79 combined with the CPS to analyze transitions into and out of overeducated employment, together with the corresponding effects on wages. Overeducation is a fairly persistent phenomenon at the aggregate and individual levels, with 66% of workers remaining overeducated after one year. Overeducation is not only more common, but also more persistent among blacks and low-AFQT individuals. Further, the hazard rate out of overeducation drops by about 60% during the first 5 years spent overeducated. However, the estimation of a mixed proportional hazard model suggests that this is attributable to selection on unobservables rather t...

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