NBER Working Papers by Anton Korinek

We study a dynamic model in which the interaction between debt accumulation and asset prices magnifies credit booms and busts. We find that borrowers do not internalize these feedback effects and therefore suffer from excessively large booms and busts in both credit flows and asset prices. We show that a Pigouvian tax on borrowing may induce borrowers to internalize these externalities and increase welfare. We calibrate the model by reference to (i) the US small and medium-sized enterprise sector and (ii) the household sector, and find the optimal tax to be countercyclical in both cases, dropping to zero in busts and rising to approximately half a percentage point of the amount of debt outstanding during booms.

This paper analyzes prudential controls on capital flows to emerging markets from the perspective of a Pigouvian tax that addresses externalities associated with the deleveraging cycle. It presents a model in which restricting capital inflows during boom times reduces the potential outflows during busts. This mitigates the feedback effects of deleveraging episodes, when tightening financial constraints on borrowers and collapsing prices for collateral assets have mutually reinforcing effects. In our model, capital controls reduce macroeconomic volatility and increase standard measures of consumer welfare.

We develop a stylized model that captures the phenomena of decoupling and recoupling in an environment where heterogeneous entrepreneurial sectors face financial constraints in their relationship with a common set of lenders. In response to adverse shocks, a financially constrained sector must reduce its borrowing and cut down on production. In particular, as the constrained sector absorbs less and less capital, the real interest rate in the economy declines. Other sectors that compete for the same inputs (including capital) thus experience lower costs, which boosts investment, output, and profits, reflecting the phenomenon of "decoupling." As long as the shock is small, the entrepreneurial sector repays what is owed and the lenders' ability to supply funds is unaffected. For large shocks,...

We analyze the effects of changes in dividend tax policy using a life-cycle model of the firm, in which new firms first access equity markets, then grow internally, and finally pay dividends when they have reached steady state. In accordance with the traditional view of dividend taxation, new firms raise less equity and invest less the higher the level of dividend taxes. However, as postulated by the new view of dividend taxation, the dividend tax rate is irrelevant for the investment decisions of internally growing and mature firms. Since aggregate investment is dominated by these latter two categories, the level of dividend taxation as well as unanticipated changes in tax rates have only small effects on aggregate investment. Anticipated dividend tax changes, on the other hand, all...