NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Working Papers by Andrew W. Mulcahy

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Working Papers

June 2011Pharmaceutical Pricing in Emerging Markets: Effects of Income, Competition and Procurement
with Patricia M. Danzon, Adrian K. Towse: w17174
This paper analyzes determinants of ex-manufacturer prices for originator and generic drugs across a large sample of countries. We focus on drugs to treat HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria in middle and low income countries (MLICs), with robustness checks to other therapeutic categories and other countries. We examine effects of per capita income, income dispersion, number and type of therapeutic and generic competitors, and whether the drugs are sold to retail pharmacies vs. tendered procurement by NGOs. The cross-national income elasticity of prices is 0.4 across high and low income countries, but is only 0.15 between MLICs, implying that drugs are least affordable relative to income in the lowest income countries. Within-country income inequality contributes to relatively high prices in MLIC...

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