NBER Working Papers by Ali Yurukoglu

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Working Papers

August 2015Multilateral Trade Bargaining: A First Look at the GATT Bargaining Records
with Kyle Bagwell, Robert W. Staiger: w21488
This paper empirically examines recently declassified data from the GATT/WTO on tariff bargaining. We document eight stylized facts about these interconnected high-stakes international negotiations. We use detailed product-level offer and counteroffer data to examine several questions about trade policy, including whether preferential tariffs were a stumbling block towards liberalization, and whether the relaxation of bilateral reciprocity to multilateral reciprocity aided liberalization. We organize the empirical analysis around a theoretical model of multi-party trade negotiations motivated by the terms-of-trade theory and respecting the institutional features of most-favored-nation status and reciprocity.
December 2014Bias in Cable News: Real Effects and Polarization
with Gregory J. Martin: w20798
We jointly measure the persuasive effects of slanted news and tastes for like-minded news. The key ingredient is using channel positions as exogenous shifters of cable news viewership. Local cable positions affect viewership by cable subscribers. They do not correlate with viewership by local satellite subscribers, who are observably similar to cable subscribers. We estimate a model of voters who select into watching slanted news, and whose ideologies evolve as a result. We estimate that Fox News increases the likelihood of voting Republican by 0.9 points among viewers induced into watching four additional minutes per week by differential channel positions. **This paper is currently under substantial revision. Before citing the results, please contact that authors for further informat...
April 2012Medicare Reimbursements and Shortages of Sterile Injectable Pharmaceuticals
This paper investigates the rise in shortages of sterile injectable pharmaceutical drugs in the US. I examine a policy change in 2005 that differentially reduced Medicare Part B payments for pharmaceuticals. Drugs whose payments dropped more due to the policy change have had greater increases in shortages. I interpret these results using a model of entry and capacity choice with supply uncertainty. I conclude that Medicare's generous payments before the policy change provided manufacturers with incentives to invest in capacity or induced entry. The effect on total welfare of lowering payments is theoretically ambiguous.

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