NBER Publications by Zoe McLaren

Because individuals with HIV are more likely to fall into poverty, and the poor may be at higher risk of contracting HIV, simple estimates of the effect of HIV status on economic outcomes will tend to be biased. In this paper, we use two econometric methods based on the propensity score to estimate the causal effect of HIV status on employment outcomes in South Africa. We rely on rich data on sexual behavior and knowledge of HIV from a large national household-based survey, which included HIV testing, to control for systematic differences between HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals. This paper provides the first nationally representative estimates of the impact of HIV status on labor market outcomes for southern Africa. We find that being HIV-positive is associated with a 6 to 7 perc...

We document the rise in unemployment in South Africa since the transition in 1994. We describe the likely causes of this increase and analyze whether the increase in unemployment is due to structural changes in the economy (resulting in a new equilibrium unemployment rate) or to negative shocks (that temporarily have increased unemployment). We conclude the former are more important. Our analysis includes a multinomial logit approach to understanding transitions in individual-level changes in labor market status using the first nationally representative panel in South Africa. Our analysis highlights several key constraints to addressing unemployment in South Africa.