NBER Publications by Yoshiro Tsutsui

In August, September and October of 2005, the Monthly Surveys of Consumers fielded by the University of Michigan included questions about the happiness of a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults. The date of each interview is known. Looking at the data week by week, reported happiness dipped significantly in the first week of September, after the seriousness of the damage done by Katrina became clear. The impulse response of happiness is especially strong in the South Central region, closest to the devastation of Katrina. The dip in happiness lasted two or three weeks in the South Central region; in the rest of the country, reported happiness returned to normal after one or two weeks. In addition to the reaction to Katrina, happiness dipped significantly after the October 2005 ea...

There have been enormous differences of opinion between U.S. and Japanese institutional investors about the outlook for stock prices, differences across the two countries in average one-year-ahead forecasts for the Japanese stock market as great as twenty percentage points. In the past two years most Japanese and U.S. institutional investors have had expectations for a reversal of trends in the stock market, and advised an investing strategy that depended on getting out of (or in to) the market before an anticipated market turnaround. These results, obtained from a number of questionnaire surveys in 1989 and 1990, help explain the relative lack of portfolio diversification across countries and show the short-term nature of speculative behavior.

In a questionnaire survey we asked Japanese institutional investors to recall what they thought and did during the worldwide stock market crash in October, 1987. The results confirm that the drop in U. S. stock prices was the primary factor on their minds, and other news stories in the United States dominated Japanese news stories. A comparison with an earlier survey of U. 5. institutional investors at the time of the crash (Shiller [1987])shows a remarkable similarity between Japanese and U. S. institutional investors in a number of attitudinal and behavioral dimensions. The results suggest that events in the United States were the proximate cause of the crash in Japan, but that the transmission mechanism of the crash was very similar in both countries.