NBER Publications by William Horrace

This paper considers estimation of a panel data model with disturbances that are autocorrelated across cross-sectional units. It is assumed that the disturbances are spatially correlated, based on some geographic or economic proximity measure. If the time dimension of the data is large, feasible and efficient estimation proceeds by using the time dimension to estimate spatial dependence parameters. For the case where the time dimension is small (the usual panel data case), we develop a generalized moments estimation approach that is a straight-forward generalization of a cross-sectional model due to Kelejian and Prucha. We apply this approach in a stochastic frontier framework to a panel of Indonesian rice farms where spatial correlations are based on geographic proximity, altitude and wea...

** Revised version 2005**

Using a recently-uncovered data set that describes over 30 federal New Deal spending, loan, and mortgage insurance programs across all U.S. counties from 1933 to 1939, this paper empirically examines the New Deal's impact on inter-county migration from 1930 to 1940. We construct a net migration measure for each county as the difference between the Census's reported population change from 1930 to 1940 and the natural increase in population (births minus infant deaths minus non-infant deaths) over the same period. Our empirical approach accounts for both the simultaneity between New Deal allocations and migration and the geographic spillovers that likely resulted when spending in one county may have affected the migration decisions of people in neighboring co...

**Revised version 2005**

This paper empirically examines the New Deal's impact on local economic activity, as measured by retail sales, during the 1930s. Using a recently-uncovered data set that describes over 30 federal New Deal spending, loan, and mortgage insurance programs across all U.S. counties from 1933 to 1939, we estimate how the various New Deal programs that were designed to accomplish different objectives influenced retail spending. Our empirical approach accounts for both the simultaneity between New Deal allocations and economic activity and the geographic spillovers that likely resulted when spending in one county may have affected the economies of its neighbors. We find that New Deal spending on public works tended to promote retail sales in both the county where the...

The Family Support Act allows states to reimburse child care costs up to the 75th percentile of local market price for child care. States must carry out surveys to estimate these 75th percentiles. This estimation problem raises two major statistical issues: (1) picking a sample design that will allow one to estimate the percentiles cheaply, efficiently and equitably; and (2) assessing the sampling variability of the estimates obtained. For Massa- chusetts, we developed a sampling design that equalized the standard errors of the estimated percentiles across 65 distinct local markets. This design was chosen because state administrators felt public day care providers and child advocates would find it equitable, thus limiting costly appeals. Estimation of standard errors for the sample 75th...