NBER Publications by Willard G. Manning

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Working Papers and Chapters

June 2008Use of Propensity Scores in Non-Linear Response Models: The Case for Health Care Expenditures
with Anirban Basu, Daniel Polsky: w14086
Under the assumption of no unmeasured confounders, a large literature exists on methods that can be used to estimating average treatment effects (ATE) from observational data and that spans regression models, propensity score adjustments using stratification, weighting or regression and even the combination of both as in doubly-robust estimators. However, comparison of these alternative methods is sparse in the context of data generated via non-linear models where treatment effects are heterogeneous, such as is in the case of healthcare cost data. In this paper, we compare the performance of alternative regression and propensity score-based estimators in estimating average treatment effects on outcomes that are generated via non-linear models. Using simulations, we find that in moderate si...
September 2006The Health Effects of Medicare for the Near-Elderly Uninsured
with Daniel Polsky, Jalpa A. Doshi, Jose Escarce, Susan M. Paddock, Liyi Cen, Jeannette Rogowski: w12511
We study how the trajectory of health for the near-elderly uninsured changes upon enrolling into Medicare at the age of 65. We find that Medicare increases the probability of the previously uninsured having excellent or very good health, decreases their probability of being in good health, and has no discernable effects at lower health levels. Surprisingly, we found Medicare had a similar effect on health for the previously insured. This suggests that Medicare helps the relatively healthy 65 year olds, but does little for those who are already in declining health once they reach the age of 65. The improvement in health between the uninsured and insured were not statistically different from each other. The stability of insurance coverage afforded by Medicare may be the source of the he...
1982The Status of Health in Demand Estimation; or, Beyond Excellent, Good, Fair, Poor
with Joseph P. Newhouse, John E. Ware, Jr.
in Economic Aspects of Health, Victor R. Fuchs, editor

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