NBER Publications by Volker Nocke

We analyze the optimal dynamic policy of an antitrust authority towards horizontal mergers when merger proposals are endogenous and occur over time. Approving a currently proposed merger will affect the profitability and welfare effects of potential future mergers, the characteristics of which may not yet be known to the antitrust authority. We show that, in many cases, this apparently difficult problem has a simple resolution: an antitrust authority can maximize discounted consumer surplus by using a completely myopic merger review policy that approves a merger today if and only if it does not lower consumer surplus given the current market structure.

We develop a theory of multiproduct firms to analyze the effects of globalization on the distributions of firm size, scope, and productivity. Our model explains two puzzles. First, it explains the well-known size-discount puzzle: large firms have lower values of Tobin%u2019s Q than small firms. Second, it explains the globalization-skewness puzzle documented in the empirical part of our paper: a multilateral reduction in trade costs leads to a flattening of the size distribution of firms. In our model, globalization not only affects the distribution of observed productivities but also productivity at the firm level.

We develop an assignment theory to analyze the volume and composition of foreign direct investment (FDI). Firms conduct FDI by either engaging in greenfield investment or in cross-border acquisitions. Cross-border acquisitions involve firms trading heterogeneous corporate assets to exploit complementarities, while greenfield FDI involves building a new plant in the foreign market. In equilibrium, greenfield FDI and cross-border acquisitions co-exist, but the composition of FDI between these modes varies with firm and country characteristics. Firms engaging in greenfield investment are systematically more efficient than those engaging in cross-border acquisitions. Furthermore, most FDI takes the form of cross-border acquisitions when factor price differences between countries are small, whi...

In this paper, we develop a novel theory of cross-border mergers and acquisitions. Firms can choose between different modes of foreign market access: exporting, greenfield FDI, and cross-border M&A. Our theory is based on three key ideas. First is heterogeneity in firms' capabilities. Second, these capabilities differ in their degree of international mobility. Third, capabilities are traded in a merger market. We address two questions: (1) what are the characteristics of firms that choose the various modes of foreign market access, and (2) how does the composition of international commerce vary across industries and countries? We show that the degree to which firms differ in their mobile and non-mobile capabilities plays a crucial role for the composition of international commerce: dependi...