NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Publications by Victor Zarnowitz

Contact and additional information for this authorAll NBER papers and publicationsNBER Working Papers only

Books

Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting
Published in January 1992 by University of Chicago Press
© 1992 by the National Bureau of Economic Research
in NBER Book Series Studies in Business Cycles

Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 4, number 4
with Geoffrey H. Moore
Published in October 1977 by NBER

Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis
Published in 1973 by NBER
in NBER Book Series Studies in Business Cycles

Supplement to NBER Report Four: The New ASA-NBER Survey of Forecasts by Economic Statisticians
Published in 1969 by NBER

An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts
Published in 1967 by UMI

Unfilled Orders, Price Changes, and Business Fluctuations
Published in 1962 by NBER

Working Papers and Chapters

January 2002Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles
with Ataman Ozyildirim: w8736

Published: Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October. citation courtesy of

August 2001The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators: How to Make It More Timely
with Robert H. McGuckin, Ataman Ozyildirim: w8430
May 2000The Old and the New in U.S. Economic Expansion of the 1990s
w7721
April 1999Has the Business Cycle Been Abolished?
w6367

Published: Business Economics, vol. 33, no. 4, October 1998. pp. 39-45

March 1999Theory and History Behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age?
w7010

Published: Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 13, no. 2 (Spring 1999): 69-90.

October 1997Business Cycles Observed and Assessed: Why and How They Matter
w6230
January 1993Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance
with Phillip Braun
in Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson, editors
January 1992Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance
with Phillip Braun: w3965

Published:

Front matter, Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting
in Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, Victor Zarnowitz
Macroeconomics and Business Cycles: An Overview
in Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, Victor Zarnowitz
Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective
in Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, Victor Zarnowitz
Facts and Factors in the Modern Evolution of U. S. Economic Fluctuations
in Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, Victor Zarnowitz
Cyclical Aspects of Cost and Price Movements
in Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, Victor Zarnowitz
Research during the First 50 Years of the National Bureau
in Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, Victor Zarnowitz
How Trends and Fluctuations Are Observed, Modeled, and Simulated: An Introduction
in Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, Victor Zarnowitz
Business Cycles and Growth
in Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, Victor Zarnowitz
The Regularity of Business Cycles
in Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, Victor Zarnowitz
Econometric Model Simulations and the Cyclical Characteristics of the Economy
in Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, Victor Zarnowitz
Cyclical Indicators: Structure, Significance, and Uses
in Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, Victor Zarnowitz
Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators
in Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, Victor Zarnowitz
Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes
in Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, Victor Zarnowitz
On Short-Term Predictions of General Economic Conditions
in Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, Victor Zarnowitz
An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Aggregate Forecasts
in Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, Victor Zarnowitz
The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts
in Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, Victor Zarnowitz
Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts
in Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, Victor Zarnowitz
Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction
in Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, Victor Zarnowitz
The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting
in Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, Victor Zarnowitz
References
in Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, Victor Zarnowitz
Author Index
in Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, Victor Zarnowitz
Subject Index
in Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, Victor Zarnowitz
October 1991What is a Business Cycle?
w3863

Published: The Business Cycle: Theories and Evidence, edited by Michael T. Belongia and Michelle R. Garfinkel, pp. 3-72. Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1992.

Has Macro-Forecasting Failed?
w3867
October 1989Cost and Price Movements in Business Cycle Theories and Experience: Hypotheses of Sticky Wages and Prices (SEE ALSO WP3132-send out together)
w3131
Cost and Price Movements in Business Cycle Theories and Experience: Causes and Effects of OBserved Changes (SEE ALSO WP3131-Send out together)
w3132
February 1989Facts and Factors in the Recent Evolution of Business Cycles in the United States
w2865

Published: Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Facts and Factors in the Modern Evolution of U. S. Economic Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 77-124 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

1989Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes: Some Estimates of Their Interrelations, 1886-1982
with Phillip Braun: w2812

Published: "Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes: Some Estimates of Their Interrelations." From Analyzing Business Cycles: Essays Honoring Geoffrey H. Moore, edited by Philip A. Klein, pp. 177-205. Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, Inc., 1990.

September 1987The Regularity of Business Cycles
w2381

Published:

June 1987The Development and Role of the National Bureau's Business Cycle Chronologies
with Geoffrey H. Moore: w1394

Published: Moore, Geoffrey and Victor Zarnowitz. "The Development and Role of the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Chronologies." The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, edited by Robert J. Gordon. Chicago: UCP, 1986, pp. 735-779.

May 1987Major Changes in Cyclical Behavior
with Geoffrey H. Moore: w1395

Published:

December 1986The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting
w2099

Published:

November 1986Forecasting Recessions Under the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Law
with Geoffrey H. Moore: w2066

Published: Lahiri, Kajal and Geoffrey H. Moore (eds.) Leading economic indicators: New approaches and forecasting records. Cambridge; New York and Melbourne: Cambridge University Press, 1991.

1986Appendix A: The Development and Role of the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Chronologies
with Geoffrey H. Moore
in The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, Robert J. Gordon, editor
Major Changes in Cyclical Behavior
with Geoffrey H. Moore
in The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, Robert J. Gordon, editor
September 1985Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence
w1503

Published:

  • Zarnowitz, Victor. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence." Journal of Economic Literature, Vol . 23, No. 2, (June 1985), pp. 523-580.
  • Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 20-76 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

June 1984Business Cycles Analysis and Expectational Survey Data
w1378
July 1983Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction
with Louis A. Lambros: w1171

Published:

1983Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts
w1070

Published:

December 1982The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys
w1053

Published:

  • Zarnowitz, Victor. "The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys." Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 3, No. 1, (January-March 1984), pp. 11-26.
  • Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 444-461 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

1982Expectations and Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys
w0845
April 1981Business Cycles and Growth: Some Reflections and Measures
w0665

Published: Zarnowitz, Victor. "Business Cycles and Growth: Some Reflections and Measures." Wirtschaftstheorie und Wirtschaftspolitik: Gedenkschrift fur Erich Preiser, edited by Wolfgang J. Muckl and Alfred E. Ott, pp. 475-508. Passau: Passavia Universitatsverlag, 1981.

December 1980On Functions, Quality, and Timeliness of Economic Information
w0608

Published: Zarnowitz, Victor. "On Functions, Quality, and Timeliness of Economic Information." The Journal of Business, Vol. 55, No. 1, (January 1982), pp. 87-11 9.

April 1979An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Forecasts of Aggregate Income, Output, and the Price Level
r0010

Published: Zarnowitz, Victor. "An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Forecasts of Aggregate Income, Output, and the Price Level. Journal of Business, Vol. 52, No. 1, (January 1979), pp. 1-33.

February 1979Information, Measurement, And Prediction In Economics
w0318
May 1978Forecasting with the Index of Leading Indicators
with Beatrice N. Vaccara: w0244
1978On the Accuracy and Properties of Recent Macroeconomic Forecasts
w0229

Published: American Economic Review, Vol. 68, no. 2 (1978): 313-319.

October 1977The Recession and Recovery of 1973-1976
with Geoffrey H. Moore
in Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 4, number 4, Victor Zarnowitz and Geoffrey H. Moore
July 1973A Review of Cyclical Indicators for the United States: Preliminary Results
w0006

Published: (Published as "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: A Review of Theories and Evidence") Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 23,no. 2 (1985): 523-580.

1973Front matter, Orders, Production, and Investment --a Cyclical and Structural Analysis
in Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, Victor Zarnowitz
Introduction
in Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, Victor Zarnowitz
The Role of Orders in Industrial Production
in Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, Victor Zarnowitz
Size and Frequency of Fluctuations
in Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, Victor Zarnowitz
Timing Comparisons
in Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, Victor Zarnowitz
Regression Analysis
in Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, Victor Zarnowitz
Unfilled Orders and Industrial Activity
in Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, Victor Zarnowitz
Unfilled Orders, Delivery Periods, and Price Changes
in Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, Victor Zarnowitz
Orders, Production, and Inventory Investment
in Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, Victor Zarnowitz
Indicators and Stages of Investment in Plant and Equipment
in Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, Victor Zarnowitz
Factors Influencing Investment Commitments and Realizations
in Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, Victor Zarnowitz
Cyclical Conformity and Timing
in Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, Victor Zarnowitz
Patterns and Diffusion of Cyclical Movements
in Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, Victor Zarnowitz
Main Results and Conclusions
in Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, Victor Zarnowitz
Appendix A: Time Series on Orders, Shipments, Production, and Inventories
in Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, Victor Zarnowitz
Appendix B: Supplementary Measures of Timing: Standard and Poor's Data
in Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, Victor Zarnowitz
Appendix C: Price Deflators for Selected Manufacturing Industries
in Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, Victor Zarnowitz
Appendix D: Average Monthly Percentage Amplitudes and Related Measures for New Orders, Production, and Shipments: Additional Evidence
in Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, Victor Zarnowitz
Appendix E: New Orders and Shipments for Industrial Subdivisions, 1948-62
in Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, Victor Zarnowitz
Appendix F: Export Orders and Shipments
in Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, Victor Zarnowitz
Appendix G: Regressions of Shipments on New Orders: First Results Based on Data for 1948-58
in Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, Victor Zarnowitz
Appendix H: Notes on Some Theoretical Aspects of Variable Delivery Periods
in Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, Victor Zarnowitz
Appendix I: On Some Recent Studies of Industry Output-Order-Inventory Relations
in Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, Victor Zarnowitz
July 1972Criteria For Evaluation Of Econometric Models
with Phoebus J. Dhrymes, E. Philip Howrey, Saul H. Hymans, Jan Kmenta, Edward E. Leamer, Richard E. Quandt, James B. Ramsey, Harold T. Shapiro
in Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 1, number 3, Sanford V. Berg, editor
1969The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts
with Jacob A. Mincer
in Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, Jacob A. Mincer, editor
The New ASA/NBER Survey of Forecasts by Economic Statisticians
in Supplement to NBER Report Four: The New ASA-NBER Survey of Forecasts by Economic Statisticians, Victor Zarnowitz
1967Front matter,"AN APPRAISAL OF SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS"
in An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts, Victor Zarnowitz
Introduction and Summary
in An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts, Victor Zarnowitz
A Collection of Aggregative Economic Forecasts
in An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts, Victor Zarnowitz
MEASUREMENT AND PRESENTATION OF BASIC DATA
in An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts, Victor Zarnowitz
SHORT-RUN VARIATIONS IN FORECASTERS' PERFORMANCE
in An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts, Victor Zarnowitz
SUMMARY MEASURES AND TYPES OF ERROR
in An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts, Victor Zarnowitz
TIME SPAN OF FORECASTS AND PREDICTIVE ACCURACY
in An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts, Victor Zarnowitz
YARDSTICKS OF PREDICTIVE PERFORMANCE
in An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts, Victor Zarnowitz
COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES OF TYPES OF FORECASTS
in An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts, Victor Zarnowitz
RELATED STUDIES AND PLANS
in An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts, Victor Zarnowitz
1965Reports On Selected Bureau Programs
with Victor R. Fuchs, Robert P. Shay
in The Task of Economics, Solomon Fabricant
1962Front matter, Unfilled Orders, Price Changes, and Business Fluctuations
in Unfilled Orders, Price Changes, and Business Fluctuations, Victor Zarnowitz
The Problem and the Conceptual Framework
in Unfilled Orders, Price Changes, and Business Fluctuations, Victor Zarnowitz
Orders, Production, and Industry Structure
in Unfilled Orders, Price Changes, and Business Fluctuations, Victor Zarnowitz
Fluctuations of Demand, Delivery Periods, and Prices
in Unfilled Orders, Price Changes, and Business Fluctuations, Victor Zarnowitz
Summary
in Unfilled Orders, Price Changes, and Business Fluctuations, Victor Zarnowitz
Appendix
in Unfilled Orders, Price Changes, and Business Fluctuations, Victor Zarnowitz
1961Cyclical Changes in Business Failures and Corporate Profits
with Lionel J. Lerner
in Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, Geoffrey H. Moore, ed.
Cyclical Aspects of Incorporations and the Formation of New Business Enterprises
in Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, Geoffrey H. Moore, ed.
The Timing of Manufacturers
in Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, Geoffrey H. Moore, ed.
Index Numbers and the Seasonality of Quantities and Prices
in The Price Statistics of the Federal Goverment, Price Statistics Review Committee

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