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NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Publications by Tobias Cwik

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March 2009New Keynesian versus Old Keynesian Government Spending Multipliers
with John F. Cogan, John B. Taylor, Volker Wieland: w14782
Renewed interest in fiscal policy has increased the use of quantitative models to evaluate policy. Because of modelling uncertainty, it is essential that policy evaluations be robust to alternative assumptions. We find that models currently being used in practice to evaluate fiscal policy stimulus proposals are not robust. Government spending multipliers in an alternative empirically-estimated and widely-cited new Keynesian model are much smaller than in these old Keynesian models; the estimated stimulus is extremely small just when needed most, and GDP and employment effects are only one-sixth as large, with private sector employment impacts likely to be even smaller.

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