NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Publications by Thomas A. Abbott, III

Contact and additional information for this authorAll publicationsWorking Papers only

Working Papers and Chapters

January 2006Who Pays? The Incidence of High Malpractice Premiums
with Mark Pauly, Christy Thompson, James Margolis, William Sage
in Frontiers in Health Policy Research, Volume 9, David Cutler and Alan Garber, organizers
February 2005The Cost of US Pharmaceutical Price Reductions: A Financial Simulation Model of R&D Decisions
with John A. Vernon: w11114
Previous empirical studies that have examined the links between pharmaceutical price controls, profits, cash flows, and investment in research and development (R&D) have been largely based on retrospective statistical analyses of firm- and/or industry-level data. These studies, which have contributed numerous insights and findings to the literature, relied upon ad hoc reduced-form model specifications. In the current paper we take a very different approach: a prospective micro-simulation approach. Using Monte Carlo techniques we model how future price controls in the U.S. will impact early-stage product development decisions in the pharmaceutical industry. This is done within the context of a net present value (NPV) framework that appropriately reflects the uncertainty associated with R&D ...

Contact and additional information for this authorAll publicationsWorking Papers only

 
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