NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Publications by Robert J. Shiller

Contact and additional information for this authorAll NBER papers and publicationsNBER Working Papers onlyInformation about this author at RePEc

Working Papers and Chapters

August 2014Changing Times, Changing Values: A Historical Analysis of Sectors within the US Stock Market 1872-2013
with Oliver D. Bunn: w20370
January 2013Wealth Effects Revisited: 1975-2012
with Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley: w18667

Published: Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M. & Shiller, Robert J., 2013. "Wealth Effects Revisited 1975-2012," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 2(1), pages 101-128, July. citation courtesy of

September 2012What Have They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets
with Karl E. Case, Anne Thompson: w18400
May 2011Continuous Workout Mortgages
with Rafal M. Wojakowski, M. Shahid Ebrahim, Mark B. Shackleton: w17007
March 2011Wealth Effects Revisited 1978-2009
with Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley: w16848
May 2009Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets
with John Y. Campbell, Luis M. Viceira: w15014

Published: John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 79-138. citation courtesy of

April 2008Derivatives Markets for Home Prices
w13962
October 2007Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership
w13553

Published: Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-123. citation courtesy of

Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Economic Models
w13558

Published: Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Economic Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(2007-2), pages 111-134. citation courtesy of

May 2005The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security: A Review
w11300

Published: Shiller, Robert J. "Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal For Social Security: An Evaluation Of President Bush's Proposal," Journal of Policy Modeling, 2006, v28(4,May), 427-444.

December 2003The Invention of Inflation-Indexed Bonds in Early America
w10183

Published: Goetzmann, William N. and Geert K. Rouwenhorst (eds.) The Origins of Value: The Financial Innovations that Created Modern Capital Markets. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005.

November 2002One Simple Test of Samuelson's Dictum for the Stock Market
with Jeeman Jung: w9348

Published: Jung, Jeeman and Robert J. Shiller. "Samuelson's Dictum And The Stock Market," Economic Inquiry, v43(2,Apr), 2005, 201-228.

November 2001Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market Versus the Housing Market
with Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley: w8606

Published: Karl Case & John Quigley & Robert Shiller, 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," Advances in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 5(1), pages 1235-1235.

April 2001Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update
with John Y. Campbell: w8221

Published: Thaler, Richard H. (ed.) Advances in Behavioral Finance, Volume II. Princeton University Press, 2005.

June 1999Designing Indexed Units of Account
w7160

Published: Klein, Lawrence R. (ed.) Long-Run Growth and Short-Run Stabilization: Essays in Memory of Albert Ando. Cheltenham, U.K. and Northampton, MA: Elgar, 2006.

March 1999Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence
w7008

Published: Shiller, Robert J. "Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence." Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets 1, 1 (2000): 49–60.

July 1998Social Security and Institutions for Intergenerational, Intragenerational, and International Risk Sharing
w6641

Published: Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 50, no. 1(June 1999): 165-204. citation courtesy of

May 1998Moral Hazard in Home Equity Conversion
with Allan N. Weiss: w6552

Published: Shiller, Robert J. and Alan N. Weiss. "Moral Hazard In Home Equity Conversion," Real Estate Economics, 2000, v28(1,Spring), 1-31. citation courtesy of

January 1998Indexed Units of Account: Theory and Assessment of Historical Experience
w6356

Published: Chapter 4 in "Indexation, Inflation, and Monetary Policy," edited by Fernando Lefort and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, Volume 2 of the series "Banca Central, Análisis y Políticas Económicas" of the Central Bank of Chile, 2002, pp. 105-134

Human Behavior and the Efficiency of the Financial System
w6375

Published: Shiller, Robert J., 1999. "Human behavior and the efficiency of the financial system," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 20, pages 1305-1340 Elsevier.

February 1997The Significance of the Market Portfolio
with Stefano Athanasoulis: t0209

Published: Athanasoulis, S. G. and Robert J. Shiller. "The Significance Of The Market Portfolio," Review of Financial Studies, 2000, v13(2,Apr), 301-329.

January 1997Why Do People Dislike Inflation?
in Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer, Editors
May 1996A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt
with John Y. Campbell: w5587

Published: A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt, John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller. in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, Bernanke and Rotemberg. 1996

April 1996Why Do People Dislike Inflation?
w5539

Published:

January 1996A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt
with John Y. Campbell
in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, Ben S. Bernanke and Julio J. Rotemberg, Editors
September 1995Labor Income Indices Designed for Use in Contracts Promoting Income Risk Management
with Ryan Schneider: w5254

Published: Shiller, Robert J & Schneider, Ryan, 1998. "Labor Income Indices Designed for Use in Contracts Promoting Income Risk Management," Review of Income and Wealth, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2), pages 163-82, June. citation courtesy of

April 1995Mortgage Default Risk and Real Estate Prices: The Use of Index-Based Futures and Options in Real Estate
with Karl E. Case, Allan N. Weiss: w5078

Published: Journal of Housing Research, vol. 7, no. 2: 243-258 (1996).

World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting International Risk Sharing Opportunities
with Stefano Athanasoulis: w5095

Published: Stefano G. Athanasoulis & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting Risk-Sharing Opportunities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1031-1054, September.

August 1994Home Equity Insurance
with Allan N. Weiss: w4830

Published: The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol. 19, no. 1 (July 1999): pp. 21-47. citation courtesy of

December 1993Measuring Asset Values for Cash Settlement in Derivative Markets: Hedonic Repeated Measures indices and Perpetual Futures
t0131

Published: Journal of Finance, Volume 48, No. 3, pp. 911-931, (July 1993).

July 1993Aggregate Income Risks and Hedging Mechanisms
w4396

Published:

  • Shiller, Robert J. (1993) Macro Markets: Creating Institutions for Managing Society's Largest Economic Risks, Oxford University Press.
  • The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, vol. 35, no. 2, Summer 1995, pp. 119-152 citation courtesy of

August 1992Hunting for Homo Sovieticus: Situational versus Attitudinal Factors in Economic Behavior
with Maxim Boycko, Vladimir Korobov: r1741

Published: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1, pp. 127-181 and 193-194, (19 92).

March 1991Actual and Warranted Relations Between Asset Prices
with Andrea E. Beltratti: w3640

Published: Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 45, no. 3, p. 387-402, July 1993 citation courtesy of

February 1991Speculative Behavior in the Stock Markets: Evidence from the United States and Japan
with Fumiko Kon-Ya, Yoshiro Tsutsui: w3613
October 1990Stock Prices and Bond Yields: Can Their Comovements Be Explained in Terms of Present Value Models?
with Andrea E. Beltratti: w3464

Published: Journal of Monetary Economics 30, pp. 25-46 (1992). citation courtesy of

September 1990Popular Attitudes Towards Free Markets: The Soviet Union and the United States Compared
with Maxim Boycko, Vladimir Korobov: w3453

Published: The American Economic Review, Vol. 81, No. 3, pp. 385-400, (June 1991). citation courtesy of

May 1990Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market
with Karl E. Case: w3368

Published: Real Estate Economics, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 253-273, (September 1990) citation courtesy of

October 1989Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View
with John Y. Campbell: w3153

Published: Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 58, pp. 495-514, (1991). citation courtesy of

February 1989Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends
w2846

Published: Journal of Finance, vol.44, pp719-729, July 1989 citation courtesy of

December 1988Initial Public Offerings: Investor Behavior and Underpricing
w2806
October 1988The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets
with Karl E. Case: w2748

Published: New England Economic Review, pp. 29-46, (November/December 1988). citation courtesy of

August 1988Investor Behavior in the October 1987 Stock Market Crash: The Case of Japan
with Fumiko Konya, Yoshiro Tsutsui: w2684

Published:

July 1988The Dividend Ratio Model and Small Sample Bias: A Monte Carlo Study
with John Y. Campbell: t0067

Published: Economics Letters, vol.29, no.4, pp.325-331, 1989

April 1988Interpreting Cointegrated Models
with John Y. Campbell: w2568

Published: Campbell, John Y. and Robert J. Shiller. "Interpreting Cointegrated Models ," from the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 12,pp. 505-522, (1988). citation courtesy of

February 1988The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts
with Ray C. Fair: w2503

Published: The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. LXXI, No. 2, pp. 325-331,(May 1989). citation courtesy of

The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes
with Karl E. Case: w2506

Published: The American Economic Review, Vol. 79, No. 1, pp. 125-137, (March 1989). citation courtesy of

Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends
with John Y. Campbell: w2511

Published: Campbell, John Y. and Robert J. Shiller, "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," from Journal of Finance. Vol. XLIII, No. 3, pp. 661-676,(July 1988). citation courtesy of

1988Portfolio Insurance and Other Investor Fashions as Factors in the 1987 Stock Market Crash
in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, Stanley Fischer, editor
November 1987Investor Behavior in the October 1987 Stock Market Crash: Survey Evidence
w2446

Published: Robert Shiller, Market Volatility, MIT Press, 1989

September 1987Prices of Single Family Homes Since 1970: New Indexes for Four Cities
with Karl E. Case: w2393

Published: New England Economic Review, pp. 45-56, Sept/Oct 1987 citation courtesy of

August 1987The Term Structure of Interest Rates
with J. Huston McCulloch: w2341

Published:

  • Benjamin Friedman and Frank Hahn, eds., Handbook of Monetary Economics, North Holland 1980
  • Shiller, Robert J. & Huston McCulloch, J., 1990. "The term structure of interest rates," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 627-722 Elsevier.
  • The Term Structure of Interest Rates, Joseph W. Conard. in The Behavior of Interest Rates: A Progress Report, Conard. 1966

May 1987Econometric Modeling as Information Aggregation
with Ray C. Fair: w2233

Published: "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models." From The American Economic Review, Vol. 80, No. 3, pp. 375-389, (June 1990).

1987Ultimate Sources of Aggregate Variability
w2129

Published: American Economic Review, vol. 77, no. 2 pp. 87-92 May 1987

December 1986The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors
with John Y. Campbell: w2100

Published: Review of Financial Studies 1988, Vol. 1, No. 3, pp. 195-228, (1988). citation courtesy of

June 1986Speculative Behavior of Institutional Investors
with John Pound: w1964

Published: Journal of Portfolio Management, vol. 13, no. 3, pp. 46-52, Spring 1987

April 1986Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models
with John Y. Campbell: w1885

Published: Campbell, John and Robert J. Shiller. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 95, No. 5, October 1987, pp. 1062-1088. citation courtesy of

March 1986Survey Evidence on Diffusion of Investment Among Institutional Investors
with John Pound: w1851

Published: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization vol. 12, p. 47-66 1989

June 1985Estimating the Continuous Time Consumption Based Asset Pricing Model
with Sanford J. Grossman, Angelo Melino: w1643

Published: Grossman, Sanford J., Angelo Melino and Robert J. Shiller. "Estimating the Continuous-Time Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 5, No. 3, July 1987, pp. 315-327. citation courtesy of

April 1985Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power versus Frequency of Observation
with Pierre Perron: t0045

Published: Perron, Pierre and Robert J. Shiller. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power Versus Frequency of Observation," Economic Letters, Vol. 18, 1985,pp. 381-386.

Conventional Valuation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
w1610

Published: Rudiger Dornbusch et. al. eds., Macroeconomics and Finance: Essays in Honor of Franco Modigliani, Cambridge, MIT Press, 1987

September 1983A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates
with John Y. Campbell: w1203

Published: Campbell, John Y. and Robert J. Shiller. "A Simple Account of the Behaviorof Long-Term Interest Rates." American Economic Review, Vol. 74, No. 2, ( May 1984), pp. 44-48. citation courtesy of

August 1982Smoothness Priors and Nonlinear Regression
t0025

Published: Shiller, Robert J. "Smoothness Priors and Nonlinear Regression." Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 79, No. 387, (September 1984) .

1982Consumption, Asset Markets, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
w0838

Published: Shiller, Robert J. "Consumption, Asset Markets, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations." Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 17, (1982), pp. 203-238. citation courtesy of

June 1981Consumption Correlatedness and Risk Measurement in Economies with Non trade Assets and Heterogeneous Information
with Sanford J. Grossman: w0690

Published: Grossman, Sanford J. and Robert J. Shiller, "Consumption Correlatedness and Risk Measurement in Economies with Non-traded Assets and Heterogeneous Information." Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 10, No. 2 (July 1982), pp. 195-210. citation courtesy of

October 1980Alternative Tests of Rational Expectations Models: The Case of the Term Structure
w0563

Published: Shiller, Robert J. "Alternative Tests of Rational Expectations Models: The Case of the Term Structure." Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 16, (1981), pp. 71-87. citation courtesy of

The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices
with Sanford J. Grossman: w0564

Published: Grossman, Sanford J. and Shiller, Robert J. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices." The American Economic Review, Vol. 71, No. 2 , (May 1981), pp. 222-227. citation courtesy of

The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency
w0565

Published: Shiller, Robert J. "The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency." The Journal of Finance, Vol. XXXVI, No. 2, (May 1981), pp. 291-304 . citation courtesy of

May 1980Coupon and Tax Effects on New and Seasoned Bond Yields and the Measurement of the Cost of Debt Capital
with Franco Modigliani: r0058

Published: Shiller, Robert J. and Modigliani, Franco. "Coupon and Tax Effects on New and Seasoned Bond Yields and the Measurement of the Cost of Dept Capital."' Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 7, (1979), pp. 297-318.

February 1980Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?
w0456

Published: Shiller, Robert J. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to Be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends? The American Economic Review, Vol. 71, No. 3, (June 1981), PP. 421-436. citation courtesy of

1980Can the Fed Control Real Interest Rates?
in Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, Stanley Fischer, editor
May 1979Can the Fed Control Real Interest Rates?
w0348

Published:

June 1975Alternative Prior Representations of Smoothness for Distributed Lag Estimation
w0089

Published: Shiller, Robert. "Distributed Lag Estimators Based on Linear Coefficient Restrictions and Bayesian Generalization of these Estimators." IHS Journal, Vol. 4, (1980), pp. 163-180.

Rational Expectations and the Dynamic Structure of Macroeconomic Models:A Critical Review
w0093

Published: Shiller, Robert. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamic Structure of Macroeconomic Models: A Critical Review." Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 4,(January 1978), pp. 1-44. citation courtesy of

Contact and additional information for this authorAll NBER papers and publicationsNBER Working Papers onlyInformation about this author at RePEc

 
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