NBER Publications by Raymond Robertson

In this paper, we examine the impact of China's growth on developing countries that specialize in manufacturing. Over 2000-2005, manufacturing accounted for 32% of China's GDP and 89% of its merchandise exports, making it more specialized in the sector than any other large developing economy. Using the gravity model of trade, we decompose bilateral trade into components associated with demand conditions in importing countries, supply conditions in exporting countries, and bilateral trade costs. We identify 10 developing economies for which manufacturing represents more than 75% of merchandise exports (Hungary, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, the Philippines, Poland, Romania, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Turkey), which are in theory the countries most exposed to the adverse consequences of China...

Deardorff [Journal of International Economics 36 (1994) 167-175] offers an intuitively appealing test for factor price equality (FPE). He demonstrates that FPE is impossible if the set (i.e., lens) of points defined by regional factor abundance vectors does not lie within the set of points defined by goods' input intensities. This note demonstrates that empirical implementation of the lens condition is problematic if the "true" number of either goods or regions is unknown. We show that satisfaction of the lens condition is more likely when goods are relatively disaggregate compared to regions.