NBER Publications by Philip DeCicca

Policy makers continue to advocate and adopt cigarette taxes as a public health measure. Most previous individual-level empirical studies of cigarette demand are essentially static analyses. In this study, we use longitudinal data to examine the dynamics of young adults' decisions about smoking initiation and cessation. We develop a simple model to highlight the distinctions between smoking initiation, cessation, and participation and show that the price elasticity of smoking participation is a weighted average of corresponding initiation and cessation elasticities, a finding that applies more broadly to other addictive substances as well. The paper's remaining contributions are empirical. We use data from the 1992 wave of the National Education Longitudinal Study, when most of the c...

This paper investigates the impact of Medicare HMO penetration on the medical care expenditures incurred by Medicare fee-for-service enrollees. We find that increasing penetration leads to reduced health care spending on fee-for-service beneficiaries. In particular, a one percentage point increase in Medicare HMO penetration reduces such spending by .9 percent. We estimate similar models for various measures of health care utilization and find penetration-induced reductions, consistent with our spending estimates. Finally, we present evidence that suggests our estimated spending reductions are driven by beneficiaries who have at least one chronic condition.

In this paper, we develop a new direct measure of state anti-smoking sentiment and merge it with micro data on youth smoking in 1992 and 2000. The empirical results from the cross-sectional models show two consistent patterns: after controlling for differences in state anti-smoking sentiment, the price of cigarettes has a weak and statistically insignificant influence on smoking participation; and state anti-smoking sentiment appears to be a potentially important influence on youth smoking participation. The cross-sectional results are corroborated by results from discrete time hazard models of smoking initiation that include state fixed effects. However, there is evidence of price-responsiveness in the conditional cigarette demand by youth and young adult smokers.