NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Publications by Myrto Kalouptsidi

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May 2014Detection and Impact of Industrial Subsidies: The Case of World Shipbuilding
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This paper provides a model-based empirical strategy to, (i) detect the presence and magnitude of government subsidies and (ii) quantify their impact on production reallocation across countries, industry prices, costs and consumer surplus. I construct and estimate an industry model that allows for dynamic agents in both demand and supply and apply my strategy to world shipbuilding, a classic target of industrial policy. I find strong evidence consistent with China having intervened and reducing shipyard costs by 15-20%, corresponding to 5 billion US dollars between 2006 and 2012. Standard detection methods employed in subsidy disputes yield less than a third of this magnitude. The subsidies led to substantial reallocation of ship production across the world, with Japan in particular losing...

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