NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Publications by Myrto Kalouptsidi

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Working Papers and Chapters

September 2015Identification of Counterfactuals and Payoffs in Dynamic Discrete Choice with an Application to Land Use
with Paul T. Scott, Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues: w21527
Dynamic discrete choice models are non-parametrically not identified without restrictions on payoff functions, yet counterfactuals may be identified even when payoffs are not. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the identification of a wide range of counterfactuals for models with nonparametric payoffs, as well as for commonly used parametric functions, and we obtain both positive and negative results. We show that access to extra data of asset resale prices (when applicable) can solve non-identifiability of both payoffs and counterfactuals. The theoretical findings are illustrated empirically in the context of agricultural land use. First, we provide identification results for models with unobserved market-level state variables. Then, using a unique spatial dataset of land ...
May 2014Detection and Impact of Industrial Subsidies: The Case of World Shipbuilding
w20119
This paper provides a model-based empirical strategy to, (i) detect the presence and gauge the magnitude of government subsidies and (ii) quantify their impact on production reallocation across countries, industry prices, costs and consumer surplus. I construct and estimate an industry model that allows for dynamic agents in both demand and supply and apply my strategy to world shipbuilding, a classic target of industrial policy. I find strong evidence consistent with China having intervened and reducing shipyard costs by 15-20%, corresponding to 5 billion US dollars between 2006 and 2012. The subsidies led to substantial reallocation of ship production across the world, with Japan, in particular, losing significant market share. They also misaligned costs and production, while leading to ...

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