NBER Publications by Matteo Maggiori

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Working Papers and Chapters

May 2014No-Bubble Condition: Model-free Tests in Housing Markets
with Stefano Giglio, Johannes Stroebel: w20154
We test for the existence of infinitely-lived bubbles in housing markets by directly measuring failures of the pricing condition requiring the present value of infinite-maturity payments to be zero. This condition is central to workhorse models of bubbles. In the U.K. and Singapore, property ownership takes the form of either leaseholds or freeholds. Leaseholds are finite-maturity ownership contracts with maturities often exceeding 700 years; freeholds are perpetual contracts. The price difference between long-maturity leaseholds and freeholds reflects the present value of the freehold after leasehold expiry, thus directly measuring the no-bubble condition. We find no evidence of infinitely-lived bubbles.
Very Long-Run Discount Rates
with Stefano Giglio, Johannes Stroebel: w20133
We provide direct estimates of how agents trade off immediate costs and uncertain future benefits that occur in the very long run, 100 or more years away. We exploit a unique feature of housing markets in the U.K. and Singapore, where residential property ownership takes the form of either leaseholds or freeholds. Leaseholds are temporary, pre-paid, and tradable ownership contracts with maturities between 99 and 999 years, while freeholds are perpetual ownership contracts. The difference between leasehold and freehold prices reflects the present value of perpetual rental income starting at leasehold expiry, and is thus informative about very long-run discount rates. We estimate the price discounts for varying leasehold maturities compared to freeholds and extremely long-run leaseholds via ...
January 2014International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics
with Xavier Gabaix: w19854
We provide a theory of the determination of exchange rates based on capital flows in imperfect financial markets. Capital flows drive exchange rates by altering the balance sheets of financiers that bear the risks resulting from international imbalances in the demand for financial assets. Such alterations to their balance sheets cause financiers to change their required compensation for holding currency risk, thus impacting both the level and volatility of exchange rates. Our theory of exchange rate determination in imperfect financial markets not only rationalizes the empirical disconnect between exchange rates and traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, but also has real consequences for output and risk sharing. Exchange rates are sensitive to imbalances in financial markets and seldom ...
February 2013Conditional Risk Premia in Currency Markets and Other Asset Classes
with Martin Lettau, Michael Weber: w18844
The downside risk CAPM (DR-CAPM) can price the cross section of currency returns. The market-beta differential between high and low interest rate currencies is higher conditional on bad market returns, when the market price of risk is also high, than it is conditional on good market returns. Correctly accounting for this variation is crucial for the empirical performance of the model. The DR-CAPM can jointly rationalize the cross section of equity, equity index options, commodity, sovereign bond and currency returns, thus offering a unified risk view of these asset classes. In contrast, popular models that have been developed for a specific asset class fail to jointly price other asset classes.

Published: Lettau, Martin & Maggiori, Matteo & Weber, Michael, 2014. "Conditional risk premia in currency markets and other asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 197-225. citation courtesy of

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