NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Publications by Mary Daly

Contact and additional information for this authorAll NBER papers and publicationsNBER Working Papers onlyInformation about this author at RePEc

Working Papers and Chapters and Reporter Articles

August 2016The Outlook for U.S. Labor-Quality Growth
with Canyon Bosler, John G. Fernald, Bart Hobijn: w22555
Over the past 15 years, labor-quality growth has been very strong—defying nearly all earlier projections—and has added around 0.5 percentage points to an otherwise modest U.S. productivity picture. Going forward, labor quality is likely to add considerably less and may even be a drag on productivity growth in the medium term. Using a variety of methods, we project that potential labor-quality growth in the longer run (7 to 10 years out) is likely to fall in the range of 0.1 to 0.25 percent per year. In the medium term, labor-quality growth could be lower or even negative, should employment rates of low-skilled workers make a cyclical rebound towards pre-recession levels. The main uncertainties in the longer run are whether the secular decline in employment of low-skilled workers continue...
November 2015The Outlook for U.S. Labor Quality Growth
with Canyon Bosler, John Fernald, Bart Hobijn
in Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future U.S. GDP Growth, Charles Hulten and Valerie Ramey, editors
January 2003The Supplemental Security Income Program
with Richard V. Burkhauser
in Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States, Robert A. Moffitt, editor

Contact and additional information for this authorAll NBER papers and publicationsNBER Working Papers onlyInformation about this author at RePEc

 
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